Towards an operational system for oil-spill forecast over Spanish waters: initial developments and implementation test

The ESEOO Project, launched after the Prestige crisis, has boosted operational oceanography capacities in Spain, creating new operational oceanographic services and increasing synergies between these new operational tools and already existing systems. In consequence, the present preparedness to face an oil-spill crisis is enhanced, significantly improving the operational response regarding ocean, meteorological and oil-spill monitoring and forecasting. A key aspect of this progress has been the agreement between the scientific community and the Spanish Search and Rescue Institution (SASEMAR), significantly favoured within the ESEOO framework. Important achievements of this collaboration are: (1) the design of protocols that at the crisis time provide operational state-of-the-art information, derived from both forecasting and observing systems; (2) the establishment, in case of oil-spill crisis, of a new specialized unit, named USyP, to monitor and forecast the marine oceanographic situation, providing the required met-ocean and oil-spill information for the crisis managers. The oil-spill crisis scenario simulated during the international search and rescue Exercise "Gijón-2006", organized by SASEMAR, represented an excellent opportunity to test the capabilities and the effectiveness of this USyP unit, as well as the protocols established to analyze and transfer information. The results presented in this work illustrate the effectiveness of the operational approach, and constitute an encouraging and improved base to face oil-spill crisis.     

Environmental hypoxia as a metabolic constraint on fish: the case of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua

Hypoxia is known to provoke a wide range of effects on aquatic animals. Here we use laboratory and field data on Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, to illustrate that many of these responses can be explained within the metabolic scope (MS) framework, i.e. taking into account the directive and limiting effects of dissolved oxygen (DO) on the ability of animals to acquire energy for growth and activity. A MS model for cod shows that scope for activity (swimming, feeding, etc.) is proportional to DO and becomes nil, jeopardising survival, when DO is < approximately 20% air saturation. Laboratory studies have confirmed this lethal threshold and demonstrated that growth and food ingestion were significantly reduced below 70% sat. This loss of appetite has been linked to a reduction of the peak value and an increase in duration of postprandial metabolism, in agreement with the MS model. Dwindling MS during hypoxia imposes an upper limit to swimming performance. Cod may also opt to reduce spontaneous swimming activity to spare oxygen for other activities such as digestion. In the Kattegat, the Baltic Sea, and the Gulf of St. Lawrence, eastern Canada, cod completely avoid waters where their MS is near zero. Furthermore, cod density increases exponentially with DO up to approximately 70% sat in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Although hypoxia results in other direct and indirect effects as well, the MS framework allows modelling of many of the responses to hypoxia for individual cod that ought to be reflected at the population and community levels. The MS framework is also useful to compare species responses. We show that the impact of hypoxia on MS is similar, when expressed as a proportion of MS in normoxia, in cod, European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax), the common sole (Solea solea) and turbot (Psetta maxima). Data are required for other species to evaluate how general these findings are.     

Multivariate discriminant analysis distinguishes metal- from non metal-related biomarker responses in the clam Chamaelea gallina

Molecular biomarkers are among the most sensitive and earliest responses to pollutants. However, lack of detailed knowledge on variability of responses and their possible seasonal variation limit their use. In addition, the seasonality of biological processes modulates the response of organisms to pollutant stressors. Using multivariate statistics, we have studied the influence of environmental and biological factors on the response of a battery of molecular biomarkers in the clam Chamaelea gallina collected along the South-Spanish littoral. Multivariate discriminant analysis clearly distinguished biomarker response between clean and polluted areas, using heavy metals as indicator of pollution. Such differences disappeared when the dataset was normalised for metal content, thus indicating that pollution was the main significant cause of the changes observed between clean and polluted sites. In conclusion, this work shows that, when applying a complete biomarker panel, multivariate statistical tools can be used to discern pollutant- from non pollutant-related responses.     

由地震目录自动重构断层网络:三维最优各向异性动态群聚

利用地震的空间位置分布,提出了一种可以重构断层网络活动部分的三维结构的模式识别新方法。该方法为所谓动态群聚(或称k均值)方法的推广,是利用震源位置关于它们的中心的全局方差最小化准则将数据点集划分为群集。这种新方法比原来的k均值方法更好,因为它为了把数据集划分为断层形状的各向异性群集而考虑了每个群集全空间位置的协方差张量。给定地震事件目录,就可以输出符合数据空间结构的最优集的平面段。每个平面段在它的位置、大小和取向上都有明显区别。主要的可调参数为地震定位精度,它固定了分辨率,即拟合的剩余方差。分辨率决定了描述地震目录所需要的断层段数目:分辨率越高,重构断层段的结构越精细。该算法成功地重构了合成地震目录的断层段。把该方法用于1992年6月28日发生在南加州兰德斯地震余震序列子集的真实地震目录,重构的断层面段与地质图上已知的断层或者长期目录中明显出现的盲断层完全吻合。讨论了该方法将来的进一步改进及其在断层带内结构的多尺度研究的潜在应用。     

大陆走滑地震断层参数的标定

通过应用简单的位移-深度函数,并假定“孕震区的基底并非发生了粘性张弛而产生,而是在介质(该介质在破裂处或邻近破裂处仍保持应力状态)中转变为稳定滑动的结果“,我们解决了弹性位错模型预报地震与平均同震滑动随着破裂长度的增加而增加的观测情况之间长期存在的矛盾。最终结果模型含有在地震尺度的整个波谱上地震具有自相似性的概念。     

由帕克菲尔德圣安德烈斯断层深部观测台钻井点主动源监测得到的震前速度变化

测量地震活跃断层区内的应力变化一直是地震学长期探寻的目标。在此我们指出,利用在圣安德烈斯断层深部观测台(SAFOD)钻孔点进行的井间主动源试验所得的地震波波速对应力的依赖性就可测量到这种应力变化。在两个多月的时间里,我们观测到沿着地下固定路径传播的S波走时变化(几微秒)与气压变化之间存在非常好的负相关性。我们还发现在走时数据中有两次很大的偏移,这两次偏移的时间与两个预计在圣安德烈斯断层深部观测台会产生最大同震应力变化的地震的时间吻合。有趣的是,这两次偏移分别在地震事件之前约10小时和2小时的时间开始,说明它们可能与早期实验室研究(Braceetal,1966;Scholz,1968)观测到的破裂前应力导致的裂纹性质改变有关。     

The overlooked role of the ocean in mercury cycling in the Arctic

The rapid and high bioaccumulation of mercury in marine mammals and its spatial and temporal variations have been a major puzzle in the Arctic. While extensive efforts have been focussed on the monitoring and chemistry of atmospheric mercury depletion events, a recent mass budget estimate of mercury in the Arctic suggests that we have overlooked the role of the ocean itself. Only through focussed studies on Hg dynamics in the Arctic Ocean under a changing climate are we going to understand what the risk of mercury is to those marine ecosystems and the people who rely on them.     

Simplified approach for design of raft foundations against fault rupture. Part Ⅱ： soil-structure interaction

This is the second paper of two, which describe the results of an integrated research effort to develop a four-step simplified approach for design of raft foundations against dip-slip （normal and thrust） fault rupture. The first two steps dealing with fault rupture propagation in the free-field were presented in the companion paper. This paper develops an approximate analytical method to analyze soil-foundation-structure interaction （SFSI）, involving two additional phenomena： （i） fault rupture diversion （Step 3）; and （ii） modification of the vertical displacement profile （Step 4）. For the first phenomenon （Step 3）, an approximate energy-based approach is developed to estimate the diversion of a fault rupture due to presence of a raft foundation. The normalized critical load for complete diversion is shown to be a function of soil strength, coefficient of earth pressure at rest, bedrock depth, and the horizontal position of the foundation relative to the outcropping fault rupture. For the second phenomenon （Step 4）, a heuristic approach is proposed, which ＂scans＂ through possible equilibrium positions to detect the one that best satisfies force and moment equilibrium. Thus, we account for the strong geometric nonlinearities that govern this interaction, such as uplifting and second order （P-△） effects. Comparisons with centrifuge-validated finite element analyses demonstrate the efficacy of the method. Its simplicity makes possible its utilization for preliminary design.