Optical properties of cirrus transition zones over China detected by CALIOP

A transition zone near cirrus lateral boundaries can be detected by CALIOP (cloud–aerosol lidar with orthogonal polarization). In the present study, for such transition zones over China, a number of optical properties, such as the backscatter coefficient and depolarization ratio, showed transitional characteristics between cirrus and clear sky. The stepped horizontal profile showed sharp changes in particle number and morphology between cirrus clouds and clear sky. The color ratio, however, was unable to show cirrus transition features because of the low signal-to-noise ratio. Typical ice particles presented a color ratio of 0.55–1.25 and a depolarization ratio of greater than 0.12, which were significantly higher than those of clear sky. Therefore, optical properties in transition took the form of stepwise horizontal profiles. The proportion of typical-featured particles also demonstrated a stepped horizontal profile similar to the optical characteristics, but the relationship between the proportion and the optical characteristics was not uniform in the cirrus clouds, transition zone, and clear sky. Therefore, the optical changes in the transition zone were caused by not only the change in particle concentration, but also the change in the particles themselves. The probability density distribution of the transition-zone widths showed a positive skewness distribution, and transition zones with widths of 3–5 km occurred most frequently. Overall, transition-zone width decreased with increasing temperature and increased with increasing vertical and horizontal wind speeds. This trend demonstrated independence with the direction of the vertical and horizontal winds. These observations implied that the transitional features were caused by material exchange, such as entrainment and turbulent transport, near the cirrus lateral boundaries, and by the phase transformation of particles, such as sublimation.     

行星地球不均一成因和演化的理论框架初探

地球是太阳系的一部分 ,研究地球的成因和演化必须要与太阳系的形成结合起来。文章在综合最新的地球化学、地球物理和天体化学研究资料的基础上 ,对地球的不均一成因进行了理论上的推导。对星子学说、地球的多阶段堆积模型和地球化学不均一性以及它们的相互关系进行了论述 ,从行星演化的角度阐述地球不均一成因的理论框架。根据行星起源的星子学说 ,以及天体化学、地球化学和深部地质地球化学和地球物理资料的多重限制 ,行星地球的增生经历了两个主要阶段 ,即原地球的形成阶段和晚期星子堆积形成上地幔镶饰层阶段。早前寒武纪岩石的铅、钕、氧同位素的研究表明 ,在地球形成的初期就存在化学不均一性 ,而这种不均一性很可能代表初始堆积星子化学组成的差异     

中国大陆地幔对流格局和岩石圈层构造运动

六十年代以来,由于卫星重力测量和计算技术的迅速发展,有些研究者,如Runcorn(1967)和Liu(1976-1980),根据卫星重力数据计算获得地幔对流及其应力场图象来研究全球板块构造和区域构造。愈来愈多的事实表明,构造运动不仅是地壳和岩石圈层物质运动的表现,而更重要的是地幔物质运动的反映。因此,本文应用作者计算获得的岩石圈层下面地幔流运动图象与大地构造及近代构造运动的资料相对比,探索我国岩石圈层下的地幔对流格局形成及其对构造运动的影响。     

基于滤波技术的上海日最大电力负荷气象预报模型

电力负荷与气象条件密切相关,为建立上海市日最大电力负荷的预报模型,利用2010—2013年上海市日最大电力负荷数据及同期气象资料,分析日最大电力负荷的时间变化特征及其与气象因子的相关性,并基于滤波技术将日最大电力负荷分离为时间趋势项和逐日变化项,用逐步回归方法针对冬季和夏季分别建立预测模型。结果表明：①上海日最大电力负荷的各个节假日效应存在差异,春节节假日效应持续时间最长,影响最大,国庆节假期前半段节假日效应明显大于后半段。夏季的周末效应最强。②采用逐步回归方法建立的气象预报模型效果较好,回代年和预测年的平均预测相对误差均小于5%。     

Response of bankfull discharge to discharge and sediment load in the Lower Yellow River

This paper presents a study on the response of bankfull discharge to incoming discharge and sediment load based on long-term hydrological and bankfull discharge data measured on the lower reaches of the Yellow River. The analysis indicated that the bankfull discharge was a function of the preceding 5 to 6 years' flow regimes, revealing that bankfull channel dimensions were a result of the accumulative effect of several consecutive years' flow discharge and sediment load conditions. In other words, the mean relaxation time was about 5 to 6 years for channel adjustment. Theoretical methods for the prediction of bankfull discharge were developed, in which the response time or the relaxation time was fully considered. Testing of the methods using data observed at five hydrologic stations in the lower reaches of the Yellow River from 1960 to 2003 showed that the proposed methods can predict the variation of bankfull discharge in response to changes in the incoming discharge and sediment load. The proposed methods hold promise for predicting the magnitude and trend of channel response to other rivers undergoing aggradation or degradation from changes in hydrologic or sediment regime.     

A new ice sheet model validated by remote sensing of the Greenland ice sheet

Accurate prediction of future sea level rise requires models that accurately reproduce and explain the recent observed dramatic ice sheet behaviours. This study presents a new multi-phase, multiple-rheology, scalable and extensible geofluid model of the Greenland ice sheet that shows the credential of successfully reproducing the mass loss rate derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and the microwave remote sensed surface melt area over the past decade. Model simulated early 21st century surface ice flow compares satisfactorily with InSAR measurements. Accurate simulation of the three metrics simultaneously cannot be explained by fortunate model tuning and give us confidence in using this modelling system for projection of the future fate of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Based on this fully adaptable three dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled prognostic ice model, we examined the flow sensitivity to granular basal sliding, and further identified that this leads to a positive feedback contributing to enhanced mass loss in a future warming climate. The rheological properties of ice depend sensitively on its temperature, thus we further verified modelâ?s temperature solver against in situ observations. Driven by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric parameters, the ice model simulated GrIS mass loss rate compares favourably with that derived from the GRACE measurements, or about ?147 km³/yr over the 2002–2008 period. Increase of the summer maximum melt area extent (SME) is indicative of expansion of the ablation zone. The modeled SME from year 1979 to 2006 compares well with the cross-polarized gradient ratio method (XPGR) observed melt area in terms of annual variabilities. A high correlation of 0.88 is found between the two time series. In the 30-year model simulation series, the surface melt exhibited large inter-annual and decadal variability, years 2002, 2005 and 2007 being three significant recent melt episodes.     

电力行业温室气体排放核算方法体系研究

调研了主要发达国家的温室气体清单编制方法和国内相关经验,结合我国电力行业特点和温室气体清单编制目标、尺度、方法等,提出以IPCC推荐的详细技术为基础的第二类(T2)方法为主,更精确的第三类(T3)方法为辅的我国电力行业温室气体清单编制方法的基本原则;借鉴国外温室气体排放核算的优良做法,结合我国电力行业实际情况,对我国电力行业温室气体清单编制进行实体分类和分析,根据清单编制的范围、定义和数据可得性等建立符合我国国情的电力行业温室气体清单编制方法体系框架。     

弱动力浅海中的悬沙输运机制:以天津港附近海域为例

根据在天津港附近海域获取的水动力和浊度数据,分析了悬沙输运特征和输运机制,结果表明:天津港附近海域受不规则半日潮控制呈低流态往复流特征,但涨潮流强于落潮流;涨潮期间底部悬沙浓度与垂线平均流速呈显著线性相关,存在显著的再悬浮作用;潮周期内的悬沙输运呈典型的不对称特征,形成向岸的净输运趋势。输运机制分析结果显示:潮泵效应(尤其是潮汐捕捉效应)是天津港附近海域悬沙输运的主要贡献项,其次是拉格朗日平流输运项,前者比后者高一个量级;垂向剪切作用最小。涨落潮期间流速与悬沙浓度的显著不对称是造成潮汐捕捉效应占主导的基本条件。在潮下带这种悬沙输运格局可能和潮间带发生的细颗粒沉积物捕集(堆积)作用有关。     

Effect of altered flow regime on bankfull area of the Lower Yellow River,China

The adjustment of the bankfull channel area in the Lower Yellow River has been dramatically affected by altered flow regimes caused by human activities. This paper presents a study on the effects of altered discharge and suspended sediment load on the bankfull area at Gaocun, a representative hydrometric station in the Lower Yellow River. The analysis demonstrates the cumulative effect of previous years' flow and sediment conditions on channel adjustment, a phenomenon commonly occurring in geomorphic systems due to the delayed channel response to flow and sediment conditions. A methodology for the prediction of bankfull area was developed based on the general concept that the rate of adjustment is proportional to the difference between the bankfull area and its equilibrium value. The proposed methodology is not only applicable for the prediction of the bankfull area in response to the changes in flow and sediment conditions in the Lower Yellow River, but can also be extended to other studies where the response times have a key role to play in the assessment of channel adjustment to external changes. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background

The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipi- tation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951― 2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects climate change, was analyzed. The results indicate that the SWI variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa, Eurasia, Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite in- creases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWI in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).