1) I. A. H. S. / A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A simple method is used to study the response of runoff in the Sahel to climate change. The statistical characteristics of rainfall are calculated over the western part of the Sahel for the period 1961–1990, using the BADOPLU network. Daily rainfall is simulated using a Markov process with Weibull distribution for rainfall depths. Runoff is modelled using a conceptual SCS model and the curve numbers are calculated for West Africa. Climate change is provided by simulations using the Arpège GCM (Scenario A1B), and a perturbation method is used on the parameters which describe the rainfall. Changes in rainfall are assumed to occur through increases in frequency, not intensity. Using Arpège, runoff is mainly found to increase, in depth and in number of events, by the end of the 21st century. Changes in evaporation and land use are not included in the analysis. The impact of this 21st century potential climate change (rainfall) on the runoff is found to be of the same magnitude as the impact of changes in land use.     

On the instability of weakly radially anisotropic star clusters

We discuss contradictions existing in the literature in the problem on the stability of collisionless spherical stellar systems, which are the simplest anisotropic generalization of the well-known polytropic models. On the one hand, calculations of the growth rates within the framework of a linear stability theory and N-body simulations suggest that these systems should become stable when the parameter s characterizing the degree of anisotropy of the stellar velocity distribution becomes lower than some critical value s _crit > 0. On the other hand, according to Palmer and Papaloizou, the growth rate should be nonzero up to the isotropic limit s = 0. Using our method of determining the eigenmodes of stellar systems, we show that even though the mode growth rates in weakly radially anisotropic systems of this type are nonzero, they are exponentially small, i.e., decrease as γ ∝ exp(−a/s) when s → 0. For slightly radially anisotropic systems with a finite lifetime, this actually implies stability.     

The reserves of extracted resources: Historical data

The available data on known reserves of extracted resources have not previously been tabulated and graphed. In this article we compile the reserves data in one place for the first time. This serves to (1) show the trends in the reserves series, (2) make the series available to others, and (3) place the reserves data in the context of price data for which longer series have been available, and with which they can now be seen to be consistent in both showing increasing availability rather than increasing scarcity.     

A New Approach for Scientific Data Dissemination in Developing Countries: A Case of Indonesia

This short paper is a progress report on our experiences in Indonesia of collecting, integrating and disseminating both global and local scientific data across the country through the web. Our recent efforts are concentrated on improving local public access to global scientific data, and encouraging local scientific data to be more accessible for global communities. We have maintained a well-connected infrastructure and web-based information management systems to realize these objectives. This paper is especially focused on introducing the ARSIP system for mirroring global data and sharing local scientific data, and the newly developed Indonesian Scientific Index for integrating local scientific data through an automated intelligent indexing system.     

Archaeal Communities of Frozen Quaternary Sediments of Marine Origin on the Coast of Western Spitsbergen

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The archaeal composition of permafrost samples taken during the drilling of frozen marine sediments in the area of the Barentsburg coal mine on the east...     

Age and geochemistry of zircon from the oldest metamorphic rocks of the Omolon Massif (Northeast Russia)

This study provides SHRIMP-RG data on zircons from garnet gedritites, the products of retrograde metamorphism of eclogite-like rocks constituting belonging to the basement of the Omolon Massif. The earliest episode recorded by oscillatory-zoned cores having high HREE and Ti contents occurred at 3.25–3.22 Ga (Paleoarchean) and is interpreted to represent an upper age limit of a metamorphic or magmatic protolith. One zircon core with a pronounced negative Eu anomaly yielded a concordant age of 2.6 Ga, which is interpreted to mark a Neoarchean episode of granite formation. The studied population of zircons provides the most distinct record of a Paleoproterozoic (1.9 Ga) event, which is marked by formation of garnet gedritites under amphibolite-facies conditions. This event is recorded by transparent recrystallization rims of preexisting large zircon grains and small newly-formed grains, which are characterized, compared with their cores, by lower crystallization temperatures and one order of magnitude lower concentrations of U, Th, and HREE, and the presence of garnet micro-inclusions.     

Accretion tectonics and crustal structure in Alaska

The entire width of the North American Cordillera in Alaska is made up of “suspect terranes”. Pre-Late Cretaceous paleogeography is poorly constrained and the ultimate origins of the many fragments which make up the state are unclear. The Prince William and Chugach terranes accreted since Late Cretaceous time and represent the collapse of much of the northeast Pacific Ocean swept into what today is southern Alaska. Greater Wrangellia, a composite terrane now dispersed into fragments scattered from Idaho to southern Alaska, apparently accreted into Alaska in Late Cretaceous time crushing an enormous deep-marine flysch basin on its inboard side. Most of interior eastern Alaska is the Yukon Tanana terrane, a very large entirely fault-bounded metamorphic-plutonic assemblage covering thousands of square kilometers in Canada as well as Alaska. The original stratigraphy and relationship to North America of the Yukon-Tanana terrane are both obscure. A collapsed Mesozoic flysch basin, similar to the one inboard of Wrangellia, lies along the northern margin. Much of Arctic Alaska was apparently a vast expanse of upper Paleozoic to Early Mesozoic deep marine sediments and mafic volcanic and plutonic rocks now scattered widely as large telescoped sheets and Klippen thrust over the Ruby geanticline and the Brooks Range, and probably underlying the Yukon-Koyukuk basin and the Yukon flats. The Brooks Range itself is a stack of north vergent nappes, the telescoping of which began in Early Cretaceous time. Despite compelling evidence for thousands of kilometers of relative displacement between the accreted terranes, and large amounts of telescoping, translation, and rotation since accretion, the resulting new continental crust added to North America in Alaska carries few obvious signatures that allow application of currently popular simple plate tectonic models. Intraplate telescoping and strike-slip translations, delamination at mid-crustal levels, and large-scale lithospheric wedging were important processes in northern Cordilleran tectonic evolution.     

基于生态足迹的区域生态适度人口研究——以新疆生产建设兵团为例

适度人口取决于生态、经济和土地等多要素的综合承载力。介绍了生态足迹模型的基本概念和计算方法,并运用该模型对兵团1995—2008年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行了计算,在此基础上对兵团的1995—2010年的生态适度人口进行了估算。结果表明,1995—1999年兵团的实际人口虽然在增加,但相对于生态适度人口并没有出现过剩;2000—2010年兵团生态适度人口在不断下降,实际人口和过剩人口却在不断增加。兵团目前已经出现了过度人口和生态赤字,人地矛盾相对紧张,生态适度人口规模是不合理的。