气候变化背景下欧洲中部水资源供给的不稳定性评估——以易北河流域为例

 欧洲中部的易北河流域是典型的湿润半湿润地区。夏季的水资源供给是限制农业生产的因素之一,特别是在具有较高农业生产力水平,而年降水量只有500 mm的黄土地区。通过总结气候变化与水文循环（GLOWA-Elbe）项目第一阶段的成果,根据气候和土地利用变化的各种情景并考虑其不确定性,对未来50 a德国易北河流域水资源供给稳定性作出综合评估。研究表明,欧洲中部必须从自然和社会角度应对未来气候变化情景下产生水资源供给短缺的可能情况。     

Further evidence for a complex limb structure in the solar radial brightness distribution at mm wavelengths

A computer program to convolve numerically any azimuthally symmetric, solar radial brightness distribution with standard antenna patterns of small half power beamwidths has been used to find a solar brightness distribution which is a good fit to the eclipse curve obtained during the 7 March 1970 partial solar eclipse with the NRAO 36-ft antenna at 3.5 mm. This brightness distribution is compared with the brightness distribution at 3.2 mm determined by the Pennsylvania State University Radio Astronomy Observatory group during the same eclipse but observed from Mexico where totality occurred. The two brightness distributions are very similar in shape, showing a double peak near the limb, but differing slightly in the positions of the peaks.     

Note on the number and origin of apollo asteroids

Fifteen Apollo, or Earth-crossing, asteroids are now recognized, and their orbital elements tabulated here. None has been accidentally rediscovered, a circumstance that leads to the 50% probability that the total number equals or does not exceed 100 to absolute magnitude 18, or above a diameter of roughly 1 km. Physical observations, orbital characteristics, and associated meteor streams provide clues as to whether the Apollo asteroids are truly minor planets or moribund cometary nuclei. A definitive answer as to the origin of the Apollo asteroids is yet to be found, but a short discussion of the status of the problem is presented.Paper dedicated to Prof. Harold C. Urey on the occasion of his 80th birthday on 29 April, 1973.     

Aircraft observations of Venus' near-infrared reflection spectrum: Implications for cloud composition

We have obtained measurements of Venus' reflection spectrum in the 1.2 to 4.1-μm spectral region from a NASA-Ames operated Lear jet. This was accomplished by observing both Venus and the sun with a spectrometer that contained a circular, variable interference filter, whose effective spectral resolution was 2%. The aircraft results were compared with computer generated spectra of a number of cloud candidates. The only substance which gave an acceptable match to the profile of Venus' strong 3-μm absorption feature, was a water solution of sulfuric acid, that had a concentration of 75% or more H₂SO₄ by weight. However, our spectra also show a modest decline in reflectivity from 2.3 μm towards 1.2-μm wavekength, which is inconsistent with the flat spectrum of sulfuric acid in this spectral region. We hypothesize that this decline is due to impurities in the sulfuric acid droplets.We also compared our list of cloud candidates with several other observed properties of the Venus clouds. While this comparison does not provide as unique an answer as did our analysis of the 3-μm band, we find that, in agreement with the results of Young (1973) and Sill (1973), concentrated sulfuric acid solutions are compatible with these additional observed properties of the Venus clouds. We conclude that the visible cloud layer of Venus is composed of sulfuric acid solution droplets, whose concentration is 75% H₂SO₄, or greater, by weight.     

Origin of the moon by tidal capture and some geophysical consequences

Of the many proposed modes of origin of the Moon, some violate physical laws; many are in conflict with observations; all are improbable. Perhaps the least improbable - based on recent tidal theory calculations and on the interpretation of lunar rock data - is capture of the Moon as it passed near the Earth in adirect (prograde) orbit, shortly after the formation of Moon and Earth, about 4.5 billion years ago. (Capture of the Moon from an initiallyretrograde orbit which had been proposed some years ago, leads to physically unacceptable consequences.) The effects of capture on the Earth would have been cataclysmic, leading to intensive heating of its interior, to volcanism, and to the immediate formation of an atmosphere and hydrosphere. Thus capture of a Moon may have given rise to the unique properties of the Earth (in the Solar System) and to the early evolution of life, about 3.5 billion years ago.Presented at the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Lunar Studies in Patras, Greece, September, 1971.     

The effect of impact obliquity on shock heating in planetesimal collisions

Collisions between planetesimals in the early solar system were a common and fundamental process. Most collisions occurred at an oblique incidence angle, yet the influence of impact angle on heating in collisions is not fully understood. We have conducted a series of shock physics simulations to quantify oblique heating processes, and find that both impact angle and target curvature are important in quantifying the amount of heating in a collision. We find an expression to estimate the heating in an oblique collision compared to that in a vertical incidence collision. We have used this expression to quantify heating in the Rhealsilvia‐forming impact on Vesta, and find that there is slightly more heating in a 45° impact than in a vertical impact. Finally, we apply these results to Monte Carlo simulations of collisional processes in the early solar system, and determine the overall effect of impact obliquity from the range of impacts that occurred on a meteorite parent body. For those bodies that survived 100 Myr without disruption, it is not necessary to account for the natural variation in impact angle, as the amount of heating was well approximated by a fixed impact angle of 45°. However, for disruptive impacts, this natural variation in impact angle should be accounted for, as around a quarter of bodies were globally heated by at least 100 K in a variable‐angle model, an order of magnitude higher than under an assumption of a fixed angle of 45°.     

Measuring the level of interstellar inheritance in the solar protoplanetary disk

The timing and extent to which the initial interstellar material was thermally processed provide fundamental constraints for models of the formation and early evolution of the solar protoplanetary disk. We argue that the nonsolar (solar Δ¹⁷O ≈ ?29‰) and near‐terrestrial (Δ¹⁷O ≈ 0‰) O‐isotopic compositions of the Earth and most extraterrestrial materials (Moon, Mars, asteroids, and comet dust) were established very early by heating of regions of the disk that were modestly enriched (dust/gas ≥ 5–10 times solar) in primordial silicates (Δ¹⁷O ≈ ?29‰) and water‐dominated ice (Δ¹⁷O ≈ 24‰) relative to the gas. Such modest enrichments could be achieved by grain growth and settling of dust to the midplane in regions where the levels of turbulence were modest. The episodic heating of the disk associated with FU Orionis outbursts were the likely causes of this early thermal processing of dust. We also estimate that at the time of accretion the CI chondrite and interplanetary dust particle parent bodies were composed of ~5–10% of pristine interstellar material. The matrices of all chondrites included roughly similar interstellar fractions. Whether this interstellar material avoided the thermal processing experienced by most dust during FU Orionis outbursts or was accreted by the disk after the outbursts ceased to be important remains to be established.     

On the effects of a sudden change in the albedo of the Earth

Acquisition by the upper atmosphere of some 10¹⁴ gm of cometary dust would have major implications on the Earth's climate. Pluvial activity would increase dramatically as temperature differences between sea and land widened. Global distribution of precipitation would be controlled by the density of the dust in the atmosphere; for a partially reflective blanket, a fraction of solar energy would still reach ground level creating new climatic zones. The totally undecomposed state of the interiors of Siberian Mammoths and the curious distribution, often uphill, of erratic boulders point to unbelievably sudden and severe conditions at the onset and possibly end of a glacial period. We suggest that a reflective blanket of particles could produce such conditions.     

The evolution of the water distribution in a viscous protoplanetary disk

Astronomical observations have shown that protoplanetary disks are dynamic objects through which mass is transported and accreted by the central star. This transport causes the disks to decrease in mass and cool over time, and such evolution is expected to have occurred in our own solar nebula. Age dating of meteorite constituents shows that their creation, evolution, and accumulation occupied several Myr, and over this time disk properties would evolve significantly. Moreover, on this timescale, solid particles decouple from the gas in the disk and their evolution follows a different path. It is in this context that we must understand how our own solar nebula evolved and what effects this evolution had on the primitive materials contained within it. Here we present a model which tracks how the distribution of water changes in an evolving disk as the water-bearing species experience condensation, accretion, transport, collisional destruction, and vaporization. Because solids are transported in a disk at different rates depending on their sizes, the motions will lead to water being concentrated in some regions of a disk and depleted in others. These enhancements and depletions are consistent with the conditions needed to explain some aspects of the chemistry of chondritic meteorites and formation of giant planets. The levels of concentration and depletion, as well as their locations, depend strongly on the combined effects of the gaseous disk evolution, the formation of rapidly migrating rubble, and the growth of immobile planetesimals. Understanding how these processes operate simultaneously is critical to developing our models for meteorite parent body formation in the Solar System and giant planet formation throughout the galaxy. We present examples of evolution under a range of plausible assumptions and demonstrate how the chemical evolution of the inner region of a protoplanetary disk is intimately connected to the physical processes which occur in the outer regions.