气候变化背景下欧洲中部水资源供给的不稳定性评估——以易北河流域为例

 欧洲中部的易北河流域是典型的湿润半湿润地区。夏季的水资源供给是限制农业生产的因素之一,特别是在具有较高农业生产力水平,而年降水量只有500 mm的黄土地区。通过总结气候变化与水文循环（GLOWA-Elbe）项目第一阶段的成果,根据气候和土地利用变化的各种情景并考虑其不确定性,对未来50 a德国易北河流域水资源供给稳定性作出综合评估。研究表明,欧洲中部必须从自然和社会角度应对未来气候变化情景下产生水资源供给短缺的可能情况。     

From Tethys to Eastern Paratethys: Oligocene depositional environments, paleoecology and paleobiogeography of the Thrace Basin (NW Turkey)

The Oligocene depositional history of the Thrace Basin documents a unique paleogeographic position at a junction between the Western Tethys and the Eastern Paratethys. As part of the Tethys, shallow marine carbonate platforms prevailed during the Eocene. Subsequently, a three-staged process of isolation started with the Oligocene. During the Early Rupelian, the Thrace Basin was still part of the Western Tethys, indicated by typical Western Tethyan marine assemblages. The isolation from the Tethys during the Early Oligocene is reflected by oolite formation and endemic Eastern Paratethyan faunas of the Solenovian stage. The third phase reflects an increasing continentalisation of the Thrace Basin with widespread coastal swamps during the Late Solenovian. The mollusc assemblages are predominated by mangrove dwelling taxa and the mangrove plant Avicennia is recorded in the pollen spectra. The final continentalisation is indicated by the replacement of the coastal swamps by pure freshwater swamps and fluvial plains during the Late Oligocene (mammal zone MP 26). This paleogeographic affiliation of the Thrace Basin with the Eastern Paratethys after ~32 Ma contrasts all currently used reconstructions which treat the basin as embayment of the Eastern Mediterranean basin.     

A structural model from local earthquake tomography: Application to present-day tectonics of the Upper Rhine Graben

We present a novel numerical approach to construct quantitative tectonic models from crustal velocity distributions derived from local earthquake tomography. Independent constraints on the location and orientation of structures are obtained from earthquake hypocenters and seismic reflection profiles. An application of this method is given for the southern end of the Upper Rhine Graben (northwestern Europe). Kinematic boundary conditions are imposed on the structural model to investigate the large scale intraplate deformation in the region. A 3-D finite element code is used to calculate the displacements, the distribution of stresses, and the potential for brittle failure in the Graben. The modeling takes into account the intersection and curvature of crustal faults. The results demonstrate the dependence of fault interaction in the system on kinematic conditions, as well as the influence of minor faults on the kinematics of major basin bounding master faults. We show that although most of the deformation in the region is taken up by the eastern boundary faults of the Rhine Graben, all faults in the system have the potential to be (re)activated. In particular, a fault system underlying the front of the Jura fold and thrust belt appears to accommodate a large part of the intraplate deformation.     

Simulation of spatiotemporal dynamics of water fluxes in Germany under climate change

In most of Europe, an increase in average annual surface temperature of 0·8 °C is observed, and a further increase is projected. Precipitation tends to increase in northern Europe and decrease in southern Europe, with variable trends in central Europe. The climate scenarios for Germany suggest an increase in precipitation in western Germany and a decrease in eastern Germany, and a shift of precipitation from summer to winter. When investigating the effects of climate change, impacts on water resources are among the main concerns. In this study, the first German‐wide impact assessment of water fluxes dynamics under climate change is presented in a spatially and temporally distributed manner using the state‐of‐the‐art regional climate model, Statistical Regional (STAR) model and the semi‐distributed process‐based eco‐hydrological model, soil and water integrated model (SWIM). All large river basins in Germany (lower Rhine, upper Danube, Elbe, Weser and Ems) are included. A special focus of the study was on data availability, homogeneity of data sets, related uncertainty propagation in the model results and scenario‐related uncertainty. After the model calibration and validation (efficiency from 0·6 to 0·9 in 80% of cases) the water flow components were simulated at the hydrotope level, and the spatial distributions were compared with those in the Hydrological Atlas of Germany. The actual evapotransipration is likely to increase in most parts of Germany, while total runoff generation may decrease in south and east regions. The results for the second scenario period 2051–2060 show that water discharge in all six rivers would be 8–30% lower in summer and autumn compared with the reference period, and the strongest decline is expected for the Saale, Danube and Neckar. Higher winter flow is expected in all of these rivers, and the increase is most significant for the Ems (about 18%). However, the uncertainty of impacts, especially in winter and for high water flows, remains high. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Kriging with Inequality Constraints

A Gaussian random field with an unknown linear trend for the mean is considered. Methods for obtaining the distribution of the trend coefficients given exact data and inequality constraints are established. Moreover, the conditional distribution for the random field at any location is calculated so that predictions using e.g. the expectation, the mode, or the median can be evaluated and prediction error estimates using quantiles or variance can be obtained. Conditional simulation techniques are also provided.     

New England granites: Trace element evidence regarding their origin and differentiation

The abundances of Sc, rare earths, Zr, Hf, Ta and Th were determined in five New England granitic plutons. Similar data are reported for separated minerals from three of the units. The granites can be divided into the Massachusetts alkaline group (Cape Ann, Peabody, Quincy) and the Rhode Island subalkaline group (Narragansett Pier, Westerly).Analyses for three samples from each pluton indicate that the Westerly granite is heterogeneous in both major and trace elements. Th abundances vary considerably (factor of 2) in both Rhode Island granites. Zr and Hf are heterogeneously distributed in all the granites while the rare earths are more homogeneous (< ± 20% deviation from mean).Eu depletions in all the granites imply that feldspar was involved either as a cumulate during fractional crystallization or as a residual phase during anatexis. Because the Massachusetts granites are associated with syenites and show evidence for low water fugacity and denser rocks at depth, these granites probably developed from basic magmas as a result of extensive feldspar crystallization.Depletion of Tb, Dy, Yb, Lu, Zr, Hf and Ta in the Rhode Island granites suggest participation of zircon or garnet as residues of partial melting or as crystal cumulates. These granites crystallized under nearly water saturated conditions and are characterized by abundant pegmatites. The presence of a water rich phase may also have been important in the depletion of elements which form stable complexes in aqueous solutions.     

A Rubidium-Strontium study of the Twilight Gneiss,West Needle Mountains,Colorado

The Precambrian trondhjemitic Twilight Gneiss (Twilight Granite of Cross and Howe, 1905b) of the West Needle Mountains, southwestern Colorado, and its interlayered amphibolite and metarhyodacite yield a Rb-Sr isochron of 1,805±35 m.y. A low initial Sr⁸⁷/Sr⁸⁶ ratio of 0.7015 implies that metamorphism of these rocks to amphibolite facies took place soon after their emplacement. The mild metamorphism of Uncompahgran age, prior to 1,460 m.y. ago, and Laramide volcanism did not affect the Rb-Sr system in the Twilight. Rb contents of 26.5 to 108 ppm, Sr contents of 114 to 251 ppm, and K₂O percentages of 1.23 to 3.64 in the Twilight Gneiss, in conjunction with high K/Rb ratios and the low initial ratio of Sr⁸⁷/Sr⁸⁶, lend support to geologic data that suggest the Twilight originated as volcanic or hypabyssal igneous rocks in a basaltic volcanic pile.Publication authorized by the Director, U.S. Geological Survey.