Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.     

Skew eddy fluxes as signatures of non‐linear tidal current interactions,with application to Georges Bank

Abstract

The eddy flux of a conservative scalar in a time‐dependent rotary velocity field may have a component that is normal to the scalar gradient. This component is the “skew flux”, which consists of the scalar transport by the Stokes velocity and a part that is always non‐divergent (and hence does not affect scalar evolution). Since tidal velocity fields usually have rotary features, tidal‐band eddy scalar fluxes may include a skew component that can be useful in indicating the occurrence of non‐linear current interactions.

The skew temperature flux associated with the semidiurnal tide in a continental shelf region is demonstrated using simple models, and moored current and temperature observations from Georges Bank. The observed fluxes on the Bank are largely directed along isobaths, with apparent contributions from the topographic rectification of the barotropic tidal current over the Bank's side and from the rotary tidal ellipses in a frontal region. Simple models indicate that the weaker cross‐isobath fluxes can arise through the influence of frictionally induced vertical structure on topographic tidal rectification, a baroclinic tidal current interaction, or the interaction of baroclinic and barotropic tidal currents. In some cases, the simple models show qualitative agreement with the observed fluxes and currents but, in general, more realistic models and better estimates of the background mean temperature field are required to obtain quantitative estimates of the relative importance of these interactions and other processes. Nevertheless, the observations and models suggest that non‐linear interactions involving both barotropic and baroclinic tidal currents are occurring on Georges Bank.     

A three dimensional perspective on the evolution of Archaean crust: LITHOPROBE seismic reflection images in the southwestern Superior province

15011993

Abstract

In 1990–1991 the LITHOPROBE project completed 450 km of seismic reflection profiles across the late Archaean crust of the southwestern Superior province. The results define a broad three-fold division of crust: upper crust in the Abitibi greenstone belt is non-reflective and is a 6–8 km veneer of volcanic and plutonic supracrustal rocks, whereas, in the sediment-gneiss dominated Pontiac subprovince, upper crust comprises shallow northwest-dipping turbidite sequences; mid-crust, in both the Abitibi and the Pontiac subprovinces, is interpreted as imbricate sequences of metasedimentary and metaplutonic rocks; lower crust in both subprovinces has a horizontal layer parallel strycture which may represent interleaved mafic-intermediate gneisses. The seismic signature of the northern Abitibi greenstone belt may be represented in an exposed 25 km crustal section in the Kapuskasing stuctural zone.

Preliminary tectonic models based on the seismic data are consistent with a plate-tectonic scenario involving oblique subduction and imbrication of sedimentary, plutonic and volcanic sequences. The northern Abitibi supracrustal sequences either represent an allochthon, or overlie an allochthonous underthrust metasedimentary and plutonic sequence which may be equivalent to a metasedimentary subprovince such as the Pontiac or Quetico.

Seismic velocities have yet to be defined. However, crustal thicknesses are relatively constant at 35–40 km. The thinnest crust is adjacent to the Grenville Front where Moho is very well defined.     

Temperature effects on the timing of striped bass egg production,larval viability,and recruitment potential in the Patuxent River (Chesapeake Bay)

The relationships between egg production (spawning behavior), larval growth and survival, and environmental conditions that larvae encounter were investigated in the Patuxent River tributary of Chesapeake Bay in 1991. Striped, bass (Morone saxatilis) eggs and larvae occurred predominantly above the salt front where conductivity was ≤800 μmhos cm^?1. There were three prominent peaks in egg production, each coinciding with increasing temperatures. Estimated growth rates of 6-d, otolith-aged cohorts, which ranged from 0.15 mm d^?1 to 0.22 mm d^?1 (mean=0.17 mm d^?1), were not demonstrated to differ significantly from each other. Observed zooplankton densities and temperature did not significantly affect growth rates. Stage-specific cumulative mortalities of combined cohorts were calculated for eggs (Z_stage=0.20=18.1%), yolk-sac larvae (Z_stage=5.80=99.7%), and first-feeding larvae (Z_stage=2.95=94.8%). The very high mortality of yolk-sac larvae suggests that dynamic during this stage may have had a major impact on subsquent recruitment. Cohort-specific mortality rates of larvae were variable, ranging from Z=0.045 d^?1 to 0.719 d^?1, and were strongly temperature-dependent. Cohorts that experiented average temperature <15°C or >20°C during the first 25 d after hatching had significantly higher mortality rates than those which experienced intermediate temperatures. Estimated hatch-date frequencies of larvae ≥8 mm SL indicated goo, very good, and very low potential recruitments for cohorst spawned during early-season (April 2–11), mid-season (April 12–24) and late-season (April 25–May 5), respectively. Because seasonal temperature trends and fluctuations are unpredictable, striped bass females cannot select a spawning time that guarantees their offspring will be exposed to optimum temperatures. Consequently, selection may have occured for spawning over a broad range of temperatures and dates, a behavior insuring that some larval cohorts will encounter favorable temperatures.     

Recent trends in estuarine fisheries: Predictions of fish production and yield

Trends in global and United States fish catches were examined to determine the status of estuarine fisheries yields relative to those from other ecosystems. Potential marine fish production, based upon primary production relationships, was estimated globally and for specific marine ecosystems, including estuaries. While global fish catches increased substantially during the past two decades and continued to increase through 1989, catches of estuarine-dependent species have peaked or stabilized. In the United States, total catches have increased but many estuarine-dependent fisheries have declined, although the declines in catches are no more dramatic than those of heavily-fished continental shelf species. Overfishing probably is the primary cause of declines in estuarine and shelf fisheries. A few estuarine-dependent species of the United States have experienced substantial increases in harvests since 1970, for example, Pacific salmons, menhaden, and penaeid shrimps. The percentage contribution of major estuarine fisheries to the United States commercial catch declined between 1970 and 1990, although the yield of these species increased substantially. Global marine fisheries production at trophic level 2.5 was estimated to be 1,359 million tons. Potential yield was estimated to be 307 million tons, but the 1989 world marine catch was only 86.5 million tons. The major fraction, 196 million tons, of the estimated potential yeild was for the open ocean where technological constraints may prevent its full realization. Of the remaining 111 million tons of the potential, 18.0 million tons (16.2%) may come from estuaries and probably already is fully exploited. The potential catches from shelves, 68.5 million tons (61.6%), and upwelling areas, 24.8 million tons (22.2%), while considerably larger than those from estuaries, are lower in a relative sense (per unit area) than fisheries production and potential catch in estuarine zones. Relationships between fish production, fish harvest, and primary production were examined in specific estuaries. The developing role of aquaculture and its effect on estuarine fisheries are discussed.     

Implicit time integration for pseudodynamic tests

The use of unconditionally stable implicit time integration techniques for pseudodynamic tests has been recently proposed and advanced by several researchers. Inspired by such developments, a pseudodynamic test scheme based on an unconditionally stable implicit time integration algorithm and dual displacement control is presented in this paper. The accuracy of the proposed scheme is proved with error-propagation analysis. It is shown by numerical examples and verification tests that the error-correction method incorporated can eliminate the spurious higher-mode response, which can often be excited by experimental errors. The practicality of the proposed scheme lies in the fact that the implementation is as easy as that of explicit schemes and that the convergence criteria required are compatible with the accuracy limits of ordinary test apparatus.