Potential climate change effects on warm-season livestock production in the Great Plains

Projected production responses were derived for confined swine and beef and for milk-producing dairy cattle based on climate change projections in daily ambient temperature. Milk production from dairy cattle and the number of days to grow swine and beef cattle were simulated. Values were obtained for three central United States transects and three climate scenarios which were based on projected mean daily ambient temperatures associated with a baseline, doubling, and tripling of atmospheric greenhouse gas (CO₂) levels for the period June 1 to October 31. For swine, a slight northwest to southeast gradient is evident. Transect 1 (west side) shows no losses under the doubling scenario and losses up to 22.4% under the tripling scenario. Transect 3 (east side) displays losses of over 70% under the tripling scenario. For beef, positive benefits were simulated in Transect 1 with increasing temperatures, although a northwest to southeast gradient was also evident. For dairy, no positive benefits in milk production were found due to climate effects. Projected production declines ranged from 1% to 7.2%, depending on location. However, ranges in predicted differences were less than those simulated for beef and swine. These simulations suggest regional differences in animal production due to climate change will be apparent. For small changes in climate conditions, animals will likely be able to adapt, while larger changes in climate conditions will likely dictate that management strategies be implemented. Exploration of the effects of climate changes on livestock should allow producers to adjust management strategies to reduce potential impact and economic losses due to environmental changes.     

Energy balance closure for the LITFASS-2003 experiment

In the first part, this paper synthesises the main results from a series of previous studies on the closure of the local energy balance at low-vegetation sites during the LITFASS-2003 experiment. A residual of up to 25% of the available energy has been found which cannot be fully explained either by the measurement uncertainty of the single components of the surface energy balance or by the length of the flux-averaging period. In the second part, secondary circulations due to heterogeneities in the surface characteristics (roughness, thermal and moisture properties) are discussed as a possible cause for the observed energy balance non-closure. This hypothesis seems to be supported from the fluxes derived from area-averaging measurement techniques (scintillometers, aircraft).     

Three centuries of Slovakian drought dynamics

Tree-ring data from Slovakia are used to reconstruct decadal-scale fluctuations of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) over 1744–2006. The ring width chronology correlates at 0.58 (annual) and 0.88 (decadal) with regional-scale (48–50°N and 18–20°E) summer (June–August) scPDSI variations (1901–2002). Driest and wettest years common to the tree-ring and target data are 1947, 1948, 1964, and 1916, 1927, 1938, 1941, respectively. The model indicates decadal-scale drought ~1780–1810, 1850–1870, 1940–1960, and during the late twentieth century. The wettest period occurred ~1745–1775. Instrumental measurements and documentary evidence allow the reconstructed drought extremes to be verified and also provide additional insights on associated synoptic drivers and socioeconomic impacts. Comparison of anomalous dry conditions with European-scale fields of 500 hPa geopotential height retains positive pressure anomalies centered over Central Europe leading to atmospheric stability, subsidence and dry conditions. Negative mid-tropospheric geopotential height anomalies over Western Europe are connected with anomalous wet conditions over Slovakia. Nine existing, annually resolved hydro-climatic reconstructions from Central Europe, which were herein considered for comparison with the Slovakian findings, reveal significant high- to low-frequency coherency among the majority of records. Differences between the Slovakian and the other reconstructions are most evident at the end of the nineteenth century.     

Opportunities provided by geographic information systems and volunteered geographic information for a timely emergency response during flood events in Cologne,Germany

The occurrence of disasters such as extreme flooding in urban environments has severe consequences, not only on the human population but also on critical infrastructures such as the road networks, which are of vital importance for everyday living and particularly for emergency response. In this article, our main goal is to present-conceptually and in praxis-a model that could be used from the emergency responders for timely and efficient emergency management and response in an urban complex environment. For the city of Cologne in Germany, we aim to indicate possible ways to decrease the emergency response time during an extreme flood scenario through the development of an accessibility indicator, which consists of different components. Therefore, we will investigate the opportunities that occur, in a flood risk scenario, from the use of geographic information in different forms such as Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) and open-source data in an ArcGIS environment, to increase urban resilience through the decreasing emergency response time. We will focus on network analysis for the fire brigades (first acting emergency responders) during a flood scenario to calculate their emergency response ranges and emergency response routes through flooded road networks, for the assistance of the possibly affected hospitals, refugee homes and fire brigades, which can be flooded. At the end of the paper, we suggest that the vulnerable community of the refugees could be taken into consideration as a new source of VGI, as an additional component that would lead to the decrease in the emergency response time. The geo-located information that could be provided by the refugee community can be very useful in emergency situations, such as those examined in this article where timely information can be forwarded to the proper authorities for a more focused and timely emergency response, increasing the resilience of the urban population and their community.

     

Modification of martian slope streaks by eolian processes

Recent images from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera have shown that slope streaks have relief on the order of a meter or less. This study presents observations of transverse bedforms and infill deposits within slope streak beds that were not previously identified or were uncommon from earlier analyses of HiRISE images. Transverse bedforms are linear to slightly arcuate features oriented transverse to the slope streak bed which may be analogous to terrestrial splash or coarse-grained ripples based on their morphology, wavelength, and amplitude. In addition to the bedforms, there is also evidence that slope streak beds gradually shallow over time by infilling of material. The presence of ripples within slope streaks implies that saltation-capable material is available on the surface today and/or was available in the recent past. Although airfall dust is not a capable saltation source material, aggregates of electrostatically-bound dust that are possibly later cemented by salts may serve as a source. From the results of this study, we hypothesize a sequence of events in a slope streak formation and modification cycle where grains saltate to form ripples along the bed of a slope streak, airfall dust mantling causes gradual fading of the streak, and infill material buries the ripples, eventually reaching the pre-avalanche surface that removes all traces of relief.     

Gapfilling interrupted helioseismic data with the EM algorithm

Helioseismic data are often interrupted by gaps, which diminish the quality of the data. In the frequency domain, these gaps lead to systematical effects with misleading interpretation of the power spectra. We propose a gap filling method that is based on modeling solar oscillation data with a statistical process, i.e., the stochastic nature of a single oscillation is taken into account by regarding it as realization of an autoregressive (AR) processes of second order. From the whole oscillation time series given as the superposition of the realization of many excited modes, the process parameters are estimated via the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Then the estimated model is used to predict the further course of the oscillatory process during occurring gaps. We demonstrate the applicability of this procedure on the basis of both simulations and data obtained with the DIFOS satellite experiment suffering from gaps of 30 min duration occurring regularly every 90 min due to the orbit around the Earth.     

A historical review and assessment of urban heat island research in Singapore

This historical review of 20 studies since the 1960s examines the influence of urban development on the thermal environment in Singapore, a fast growing tropical island city‐state. Past observations are critically assessed with regard to experimental controls and station metadata. Given the availability of historical climate and developmental data spanning almost 50 years, changes in urban heat island (UHI) intensity and spatial coverage can be traced temporally. Rapid urban expansion in Singapore is clearly reflected in spatially and temporally changing air and surface temperature patterns. The nocturnal canopy‐layer UHI intensity – measured as the difference between the commercial urban core and undeveloped areas close to primary or secondary rainforests for example – doubled in magnitude between 1965 and 2004. At the same time, the spatial extent of the nocturnal UHI has also expanded with the development of new housing and industrial districts. The influence of the growing city is also reflected in surface temperature. Two satellite images dated 13 years apart demonstrate the encroachment of areas with high surface temperatures into previously cooler areas during daytime corresponding with new public housing estates and low‐rise residential areas or facilities being built. The results from our study contribute to the growing body of tropical heat island research. They provide baseline data for future research and urban development in the Singapore context and, more generally, offer important cues for urban planners to make tropical cities more sustainable.     

The ability of general circulation models to simulate tropical cyclones and their precursors over the North Atlantic main development region

The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to generate Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR; 10–20°N, 20–80°W; Goldenberg and Shapiro in J Clim 9:1169–1187, 1996) is examined through a subset of ocean–atmosphere coupled simulations from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set and a high-resolution (0.5°) Sea Surface Temperature (SST)-forced simulation from the Australian Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model GCM. The results are compared with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-2) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) reanalyses over a common period from 1980 to 1998. Important biases in the representation of the TC activity are encountered over the MDR. This study emphasizes the strong link in the GCMs between African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and TC activity in this region. However, the generation of AEWs is not a sufficient condition alone for the models to produce TCs. Precipitation over the Sahel, especially rainfall over the Fouta Djallon highlands (cf. Fig.?1), is playing a role in the generation of TCs over the MDR. The influence of large-scale fields such as SST, vertical wind shear and tropospheric humidity on TC genesis is also examined. The ability of TC genesis indices, such as the Genesis Potential Index and the Convective Yearly Genesis Potential, to represent TC activity over the MDR in simulations at low to high spatial resolutions is analysed. These indices are found to be a reasonable method for comparing cyclogenesis in different models, even though other factors such as AEW activity should also be considered.     

Petrogenetic character and provenance of metabasalts in the aspiring and Torlesse Terranes, South Island, New Zealand: Implications for the gold endowment of the Otago Schist?

We report quantitative X-ray diffraction, whole-rock geochemical and Sm–Nd isotope data for metabasalts from the Aspiring and Torlesse Terranes in the South Island of New Zealand. These rocks underlie the Mesozoic metasedimentary Otago Schist which is anomalously enriched in gold and host to at least one world-class orogenic gold deposit at Macraes (> 125 t Au). Geochemical and Nd isotopic similarities between the samples point to a common history of the two terranes rather than the amalgamation of one or two allochthonous plate fragments. Furthermore, geochemical and Nd data suggest the metabasalts within both terranes formed in an oceanic but essentially non-subduction-related setting. The origin of the Aspiring and Torlesse basalts can be linked to the formation of an oceanic plateau that had resulted from a (?Permian) mantle plume initiation event proximal to a mid-oceanic rise or triple junction. Given the intrinsically gold-enriched nature of certain oceanic-character mafic rocks, the anomalous gold endowment of the Otago Schist may have been enhanced via the accretion and subduction of a gold-enriched oceanic plateau fragment. The metabasalts are generally enriched in gold (up to 13 ppb) compared to their enclosing metasedimentary rocks (typically ca. 1 ppb), with sulphide-rich metabasaltic rocks having up to 550 ppb Au. However, the relatively small volume of metabasalts in the Otago Schist precludes these rocks as the principal source for Otago Schist orogenic gold, with a primarily metasedimentary source of the gold potentially having a limiting effect on the overall endowment of the Otago Schist. This approach, that employs petrogenetic fingerprinting of potentially fertile source rocks for the assessment of gold endowment, might prove useful in the conceptual exploration targeting of relatively immature and poorly exposed terrains.     

Auger Nanoprobe analysis of presolar ferromagnesian silicate grains from primitive CR chondrites QUE 99177 and MET 00426

We have investigated the presolar grain inventories of two CR chondrites, QUE 99177 and MET 00426, which are less altered than most members of this meteorite group. Both meteorites contain high abundances of O-anomalous presolar grains, with concentrations of 220 ± 40 and 160 ± 30 ppm for QUE 99177 and MET 00426, respectively. The presolar grain inventories are dominated by ferromagnesian silicates with group 1 oxygen isotopic compositions, indicative of origins in low mass red giant or asymptotic giant branch stars. Grains with pyroxene-like compositions are somewhat more common than those with olivine-like compositions, but most grains are non-stoichiometric with compositions intermediate between these two phases, consistent with recent work suggesting that amorphous interstellar silicates have stoichiometries between olivine and pyroxene type silicates. Although structural data are not available, one grain contains only Si and O, and has a stoichiometry consistent with SiO₂.Our presolar grains are much more Fe-rich than predicted by astronomical observations. Although secondary alteration may play a role in enhancing the Fe contents of presolar grains, it seems unlikely that the large and ubiquitous Fe enrichments observed in the grains from this study can be due only to secondary processing, particularly given the highly primitive nature of these two meteorites. Grain condensation in the stellar outflows where these grains formed likely proceeded under rapidly changing kinetic conditions that may have enhanced the incorporation of Fe into the grains over that expected based on equilibrium condensation theory.Both QUE 99177 and MET 00426 appear to contain unusually low abundances of oxide grains and have higher silicate/oxide ratios than other primitive meteorites analyzed to date. We explore various possibilities for this discrepancy, but note that most scenarios are not likely to result in the preferential destruction of oxides relative to silicates. Thus, the highest silicate/oxide ratios, such as those observed in the CR chondrites, should reflect the true initial proportions of presolar silicate and oxide grains in the parent molecular cloud from which the solar nebula evolved.