Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Basin evolution and palaeoenvironmental variability of the thermokarst lake El'gene‐Kyuele,Arctic Siberia

Thermokarst lakes are a widespread feature of the Arctic tundra, in which highly dynamic processes are closely connected with current and past climate changes. We investigated late Quaternary sediment dynamics, basin and shoreline evolution, and environmental interrelations of Lake El'gene‐Kyuele in the NE Siberian Arctic (latitude 71°17′N, longitude 125°34′E). The water‐body displays thaw‐lake characteristics cutting into both Pleistocene Ice Complex and Holocene alas sediments. Our methods are based on grain size distribution, mineralogical composition, TOC/N ratio, stable carbon isotopes and the analysis of plant macrofossils from a 3.5‐m sediment profile at the modern eastern lake shore. Our results show two main sources for sediments in the lake basin: terrigenous diamicton supplied from thermokarst slopes and the lake shore, and lacustrine detritus that has mainly settled in the deep lake basin. The lake and its adjacent thermokarst basin rapidly expanded during the early Holocene. This climatically warmer than today period was characterized by forest or forest tundra vegetation composed of larches, birch trees and shrubs. Woodlands of both the HTM and the Late Pleistocene were affected by fire, which potentially triggered the initiation of thermokarst processes resulting later in lake formation and expansion. The maximum lake depth at the study site and the lowest limnic bioproductivity occurred during the longest time interval of ～7 ka starting in the Holocene Thermal Maximum and lasting throughout the progressively cooler Neoglacial, whereas partial drainage and an extensive shift of the lake shoreline occurred ～0.9 cal. ka BP. Correspondingly, this study discusses different climatic and environmental drivers for the dynamics of a thermokarst basin.     

The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy

Constraining global average temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or ‘dashboard’. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country’s decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 °C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies.

Policy relevance

In the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization.     

Calibration of cyclic constitutive models by oscillating functions

Most structures are subjected to more cyclic loads during their life time than static loads. These cyclic action could be a result of either natural or man-made activities and may lead to soil failure. In order to understand the response of the foundation and its interaction with these complex cyclic loadings, various researchers have over the years developed different constitutive models. Although a lot of research is being carried out on these relatively new models, little or no details exist in literature about the model-based identification of the cyclic constitutive parameters which to a large extent govern the quality of the model output. This could be attributed to the difficulties and complexities of the inverse modeling of such complex phenomena. A variety of optimisation strategies are available for the solution of the sum of least-squares problems as usually done in the field of model calibration. However, for the back analysis (calibration) of the soil response to oscillatory load functions, this article gives insight into the model calibration challenges and also puts forward a method for the inverse modeling of cyclic loaded foundation response such that high-quality solutions are obtained with minimum computational effort.     

Satellite altimetry for measuring river stages in remote regions

The advent in satellite altimetry with the most accurate satellite radar altimeter since 1992 and its successive missions have enabled the routine global monitoring of water-level (or stage) for surface waters and changes in the quantities of dammed water reservoirs. However, satellite altimeter measurements typically have spatial resolution capable of observing only large water bodies, such as major lakes and rivers. This paper addresses the challenges of how to investigate water levels in medium (~?1 km in width) to small (~?100 m and narrower) rivers. Comparisons between the ENVISAT altimetry ICE-1 waveform retracking height and standard water-level measurements for multiple sections of Ohio River, Columbia River, and Red River of the North in the United States (US) reveals that the satellite altimetry measured water levels agree well with those observed at nearby US Geological Survey gaging stations over the 10-year period starting from 2002. The significant results include those obtained at Thompson, North Dakota (ND, correlation coefficient or R value of 0.76 between satellite and in situ water-level measurements) and Fargo, ND (R?=?0.74), where the stream channels of Red River are merely?~?50 m and ~?40 m wide, respectively, under normal climatic conditions. In addition, demonstrations of the approach over largely inaccessible portions of Tigris–Euphrates Rivers and Helmand River in the Middle East aided in understanding hydrology in these systems. This study demonstrates the ability of satellite radar altimetry to characterize rivers in these study regions which are much narrower than 100 m in width.