Bayesian model averaging assessment on groundwater management under model structure uncertainty

This study introduces Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to deal with model structure uncertainty in groundwater management decisions. A robust optimized policy should take into account model parameter uncertainty as well as uncertainty in imprecise model structure. Due to a limited amount of groundwater head data and hydraulic conductivity data, multiple simulation models are developed based on different head boundary condition values and semivariogram models of hydraulic conductivity. Instead of selecting the best simulation model, a variance-window-based BMA method is introduced to the management model to utilize all simulation models to predict chloride concentration. Given different semivariogram models, the spatially correlated hydraulic conductivity distributions are estimated by the generalized parameterization (GP) method that combines the Voronoi zones and the ordinary kriging (OK) estimates. The model weights of BMA are estimated by the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the variance window in the maximum likelihood estimation. The simulation models are then weighted to predict chloride concentrations within the constraints of the management model. The methodology is implemented to manage saltwater intrusion in the “1,500-foot” sand aquifer in the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana. The management model aims to obtain optimal joint operations of the hydraulic barrier system and the saltwater extraction system to mitigate saltwater intrusion. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used to obtain the optimal injection and extraction policies. Using the BMA predictions, higher injection rates and pumping rates are needed to cover more constraint violations, which do not occur if a single best model is used.     

Effects of atmospheric stability conditions on heat fluxes from small water surfaces in (semi-)arid regions

Atmospheric stability conditions over the water surface can affect the evaporative and convective heat fluxes from the water surface. Atmospheric instability occurred 72.5% of the time and resulted in 44.7 and 89.2% increases in the average and maximum estimated evaporation, respectively, when compared to the neutral condition for a small shallow lake (Binaba) in Ghana. The proposed approach is based on the bulk-aerodynamic transfer method and the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) using standard meteorological parameters measured over the surrounding land. For water surface temperature, a crucial parameter in heat flux estimation from water surfaces, an applicable method is proposed. This method was used to compute heat fluxes and compare them with observed heat fluxes. The heat flux model was validated using sensible heat fluxes measured with a 3-D sonic anemometer. The results show that an unstable atmospheric condition has a significant effect in enhancing evaporation alongside the sensible heat flux from water surfaces.     

陆相盆地中的海侵层序特征:中欧盆地三叠系与松辽盆地白垩系对比研究

中欧盆地三叠系是典型的海陆过渡相沉积，松辽盆地白垩系是含有海侵事件记录的陆相河湖盆地。两盆地的共同特点是：①大陆克拉通上长期发育的大型坳陷盆地；②靠近古大洋和（或）有向海通道；③主要由互层状泥岩、粉砂岩、碳酸盐岩和膏盐层组成；④无典型海相化石，可能发育有半咸水和（或）高盐度生物；⑤海侵层中自生矿物的δ^34S,δ^13C,δ^18O同位素比值及介质盐度指数（Sr/Ba）、碱度指数（Ca Mg)／（Si Al）、还原性指标（Zn Ni)/Ga、硫沉积通量指数（归一化硫含量）等显著高于相邻层位背景值。     

Adapting rail and road networks to weather extremes: case studies for southern Germany and Austria

The assessment of the current impacts of extreme weather conditions on transport systems reveals high costs in specific locations. Prominent examples for Europe are the economic consequences of the harsh winter periods 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 and the floods in Austria, Eastern Europe, Germany and the United Kingdom in 2005 and 2007. Departing from the EC-funded project WEATHER, this paper delves into the subject of adaptation strategies by revisiting the project’s general findings on adaptation strategies and by adding two specific cases: (1) advanced winter maintenance on roads in southwest Germany and (2) technical and organizational measures in Alpine rail transport. For these two cases, feasible adaptation strategies are elaborated and their potential is discussed in light of damage cost forecasts up to 2050. For the road sector, we find a high potential to mitigate weather-related costs, although damages here are expected to decline. In contrast, rail systems face strongly increasing damages and the mitigation options offered by improved information and communication systems seem to be largely exploited. Consequently, it is easier to justify expensive adaptation measures for high-cost rail infrastructures than for road transport. A generic analysis of 14 damage cases worldwide, however, revealed that generally awareness raising, cooperation and communication strategies are sufficient to mitigate the most severe damages by natural disasters.     

Late Holocene climatic changes in Tierra del Fuego based on multiproxy analyses of peat deposits

A ca. 1400-yr record from a raised bog in Isla Grande, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, registers climate fluctuations, including a Medieval Warm Period, although evidence for the ‘Little Ice Age’ is less clear. Changes in temperature and/or precipitation were inferred from plant macrofossils, pollen, fungal spores, testate amebae, and peat humification. The chronology was established using a ¹⁴C wiggle-matching technique that provides improved age control for at least part of the record compared to other sites. These new data are presented and compared with other lines of evidence from the Southern and Northern Hemispheres. A period of low local water tables occurred in the bog between A.D. 960-1020, which may correspond to the Medieval Warm Period date range of A.D. 950-1045 generated from Northern Hemisphere tree-ring data. A period of cooler and/or wetter conditions was detected between ca. A.D. 1030 and 1100 and a later period of cooler/wetter conditions estimated at ca. cal A.D. 1800-1930, which may correspond to a cooling episode inferred from Law Dome, Antarctica.     

Progressive oxidation of pyrite in five bituminous coal samples: An As XANES and Fe Mössbauer spectroscopic study

Naturally occurring pyrite commonly contains minor substituted metals and metalloids (As, Se, Hg, Cu, Ni, etc.) that can be released to the environment as a result of its weathering. Arsenic, often the most abundant minor constituent in pyrite, is a sensitive monitor of progressive pyrite oxidation in coal. To test the effect of pyrite composition and environmental parameters on the rate and extent of pyrite oxidation in coal, splits of five bituminous coal samples having differing amounts of pyrite and extents of As substitution in the pyrite, were exposed to a range of simulated weathering conditions over a period of 17 months. Samples investigated include a Springfield coal from Indiana (whole coal pyritic S = 2.13 wt.%; As in pyrite = detection limit (d.l.) to 0.06 wt.%), two Pittsburgh coal samples from West Virginia (pyritic S = 1.32–1.58 wt.%; As in pyrite = d.l. to 0.34 wt.%), and two samples from the Warrior Basin, Alabama (pyritic S = 0.26–0.27 wt.%; As in pyrite = d.l. to 2.72 wt.%). Samples were collected from active mine faces, and expected differences in the concentration of As in pyrite were confirmed by electron microprobe analysis. Experimental weathering conditions in test chambers were maintained as follows: (1) dry Ar atmosphere; (2) dry O₂ atmosphere; (3) room atmosphere (relative humidity ∼20–60%); and (4) room atmosphere with samples wetted periodically with double-distilled water. Sample splits were removed after one month, nine months, and 17 months to monitor the extent of As and Fe oxidation using As X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy and ⁵⁷Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy, respectively. Arsenic XANES spectroscopy shows progressive oxidation of pyritic As to arsenate, with wetted samples showing the most rapid oxidation. ⁵⁷Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy also shows a much greater proportion of Fe³⁺ forms (jarosite, Fe³⁺ sulfate, FeOOH) for samples stored under wet conditions, but much less difference among samples stored under dry conditions in different atmospheres. The air-wet experiments show evidence of pyrite re-precipitation from soluble ferric sulfates, with As retention in the jarosite phase. Extents of As and Fe oxidation were similar for samples having differing As substitution in pyrite, suggesting that environmental conditions outweigh the composition and amount of pyrite as factors influencing the oxidation rate of Fe sulfides in coal.     

Qingbaikouan and Crygenian in South China: Constraints by SHRIMP Zircon U-Pb dating

The Qingbaikouan System is the lowest unit of the Neoproterozoic Erathem in Chinese stratigraphic succession,and it now provides a precise geochronological framework and geological time scale for mapping and stratal correlation in China.However,a sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe （SHRIMP） U-Pb zircon age date （1368±12 Ma） obtained from a bentonite in the Qingbaikouan Xiamaling Formation indicates that it belongs to the Mesoproterozoic Erathem instead.This change is a milestone in understanding the Precambrian Stratigraphic Time Scale in China,and it has had great influence on Precambrian correlations in Asia.Otherwise,a large amount of geochronological work has been done in the ＂Jiangnan Orogen Belt＂ of South China,and new isotopic data have redefined the traditional recognition of metamorphosed Mesoproterozoic strata from the Sibao orogeny to the Neoproterozoic Erathem.Based on SHRIMP zircon U-Pb age data,the authors regard the Sibao orogeny （equal to the Wuling orogeny） as a movement at ca 820 Ma,meaning that the Sibao orogeny was not equivalent to the Grenvillian orogeny.Finally,we report here the first SHRIMP U-Pb age of the boundary between the top of the Qingbaikouan Gongdong Formation （786.8±5.6 Ma） and the bottom of the Chang＇an （diamictite） Formation （778.4±5.2 Ma）,which is the age of the lowest diamictite of the Nanhuan System in China.     

Insights into Holocene relative sea-level changes in the southern North Sea using an improved microfauna-based transfer function

In light of global warming and rising relative sea level (RSL), detailed reconstructions of RSL histories and their controlling processes are essential in order to manage coastal-protection challenges. This study contributes to unravelling Holocene RSL change on the East Frisian North Sea coast in high resolution and with a new approach for the German Bight. For the first time, a transfer function (vertical error: 29.7 cm ? ~11% of the mean tidal range) for RSL change based on a combined training set of benthic foraminifers and ostracods from the back-barrier tidal basin of Spiekeroog is applied to the Holocene record of the back-barrier tidal basin of Norderney. The resulting RSL curve for the Norderney tidal basin is corrected for decompaction and shows a deceleration in RSL rise between 6000 and 5000 cal bp. The smallest possible error envelope (~1 m) results from the good suitability of salt-marsh layers between 5000 and 4000 cal bp. The RSL curve provides an approach towards the closure of the common data gap of peat-based curves for the southern North Sea related to a lack of basal peats in the youngest age range, and verifies regional differences in glacial isostatic adjustment.