Estimates of Natural Salinity and Hydrology in a Subtropical Estuarine Ecosystem: Implications for Greater Everglades Restoration

Disruption of the natural patterns of freshwater flow into estuarine ecosystems occurred in many locations around the world beginning in the twentieth century. To effectively restore these systems, establishing a pre-alteration perspective allows managers to develop science-based restoration targets for salinity and hydrology. This paper describes a process to develop targets based on natural hydrologic functions by coupling paleoecology and regression models using the subtropical Greater Everglades Ecosystem as an example. Paleoecological investigations characterize the circa 1900 CE (pre-alteration) salinity regime in Florida Bay based on molluscan remains in sediment cores. These paleosalinity estimates are converted into time series estimates of paleo-based salinity, stage, and flow using numeric and statistical models. Model outputs are weighted using the mean square error statistic and then combined. Results indicate that, in the absence of water management, salinity in Florida Bay would be about 3 to 9 salinity units lower than current conditions. To achieve this target, upstream freshwater levels must be about 0.25 m higher than indicated by recent observed data, with increased flow inputs to Florida Bay between 2.1 and 3.7 times existing flows. This flow deficit is comparable to the average volume of water currently being diverted from the Everglades ecosystem by water management. The products (paleo-based Florida Bay salinity and upstream hydrology) provide estimates of pre-alteration hydrology and salinity that represent target restoration conditions. This method can be applied to any estuarine ecosystem with available paleoecologic data and empirical and/or model-based hydrologic data.     

Implementing the Kyoto Protocol without the USA: the strategic role of energy tax adjustments at the border

Abstract

This article explores options for countries that have ratified the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and that intend to implement ambitious climate protection strategies—the ‘Kyoto coalition’—to deal with possible comparative disadvantages vis-à-vis third parties, in particular industrialized countries that do not adhere to the Kyoto Protocol. Specifically, the article focuses on the instrument of border adjustments for energy taxes. We outline the rationale for such adjustments and examine in detail whether certain border adjustments for energy taxes would be permissible under world trade law, in particular the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures. We conclude that despite remaining ambiguity in both the legal provisions and the pertinent case law, border tax adjustments are under certain circumstances compatible with world trade law. Yet, given persisting legal uncertainty, it seems likely that affected members of the World Trade Organization would challenge such energy tax adjustments at the border before the WTO dispute settlement mechanism.     

The economics of inaction on climate change: a sensitivity analysis

Abstract

Economic models of climate change often take the problem seriously, but paradoxically conclude that the optimal policy is to do almost nothing about it. We explore this paradox as seen in the widely used DICE model. Three aspects of that model, involving the discount rate, the assumed benefits of moderate warming, and the treatment of the latest climate science, are sufficient to explain the timidity of the model's optimal policy recommendation. With modifications to those three points, DICE shows that the optimal policy is a much higher and rapidly rising marginal carbon price; and that higher carbon price has a greater effect on physical measures of climate impacts. Our modifications exhibit nonlinear interactions; at least at low discount rates, there is synergy between individual changes to the model. At low discount rates, the inherent uncertainty about future damages looms larger in the analysis, rendering long-run economic modelling less useful. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of the model to three debatable assumptions; it does not, and could not, lead to a more reliably ‘optimal’ cost of carbon. Cost-effectiveness analysis, focusing on the generally shorter-term cost side of the problem, reduces the economic paradoxes of the long run, and may make a greater contribution than economic optimization modelling.     

A preliminary methods comparison for measurement of dissolved organic nitrogen in seawater

Routine determination of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) is performed in numerous laboratories around the world using one of three families of methods: UV oxidation (UV), persulfate oxidation (PO), or high temperature combustion (HTC). Essentially all routine methods measure total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and calculate DON by subtracting the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN). While there is currently no strong suggestion that any of these methods is inadequate, there are continuing suspicions of slight inaccuracy by UV methods.This is a report of a broad community methods comparison where 29 sets (7 UV, 13 PO, and 9 HTC) of TDN analyses were performed on five samples with varying TDN and DIN concentrations. Analyses were done in a “blind” procedure with results sent to the first author. With editing out one set of extreme outliers (representing 5 out of 145 ampoules analyzed), the community comparability for analyzing the TDN samples was in the 8–28% range (coefficient of variation representing one standard deviation for the five individual samples by 28 analyses). When DIN concentrations were subtracted uniformly (single DIN value for each sample), the comparability was obviously worse (19–46% cv). This comparison represents a larger and more diverse set of analyses, but the overall comparability is only marginally better than that of the Seattle workshop of a decade ago. Grouping methods, little difference was seen other than inconclusive evidence that the UV methods gave TDN values for several of the samples higher than HTC methods. Since there was much scatter for each of the groups of methods and for all analyses when grouped, it is thought that more uniformity in procedures is probably needed. An important unplanned observation is that variability in DIN analyses (used in determining the final analyte in most UV and PO methods) is essentially as large as the variability in the TDN analyses.This exercise should not be viewed as a qualification exercise for the analysts, but should instead be considered a broad preliminary test of the comparison of the families of methods being used in various laboratories around the world. Based on many independent analyses here, none of the routinely used methods appears to be grossly inaccurate, thus, most routine TDN analyses being reported in the literature are apparently accurate. However, it is not reassuring that the ability of the international community to determine DON in deep oceanic waters continues to be poor. It is suggested that as an outgrowth of this paper, analysts using UV and PO methods experiment and look more carefully at the completeness of DIN conversion to the final analyte and also at the accuracy of their analysis of the final analyte. HTC methods appear to be relatively easy and convenient and have potential for routine adoption. Several of the authors of this paper are currently working together on an interlaboratory comparison on HTC methodology.     

The MEMIN research unit: Scaling impact cratering experiments in porous sandstones

Abstract– The MEMIN research unit (Multidisciplinary Experimental and Modeling Impact research Network) is focused on analyzing experimental impact craters and experimental cratering processes in geological materials. MEMIN is interested in understanding how porosity and pore space saturation influence the cratering process. Here, we present results of a series of impact experiments into porous wet and dry sandstone targets. Steel, iron meteorite, and aluminum projectiles ranging in size from 2.5 to 12 mm were accelerated to velocities of 2.5–7.8 km s^?1, yielding craters with diameters between 3.9 and 40 cm. Results show that the target’s porosity reduces crater volumes and cratering efficiency relative to nonporous rocks. Saturation of pore space with water to 50% and 90% increasingly counteracts the effects of porosity, leading to larger but flatter craters. Spallation becomes more dominant in larger‐scale experiments and leads to an increase in cratering efficiency with increasing projectile size for constant impact velocities. The volume of spalled material is estimated using parabolic fits to the crater morphology, yielding approximations of the transient crater volume. For impacts at the same velocity these transient craters show a constant cratering efficiency that is not affected by projectile size.     

Hypervelocity impacts on dry and wet sandstone: Observations of ejecta dynamics and crater growth

Abstract– This study deals with the investigation of highly dynamic processes associated with hypervelocity impacts on porous sandstone. For the impact experiments, two light‐gas accelerators with different calibers were used, capable of accelerating steel projectiles with diameters ranging from 2.5 to 12 mm to several kilometers per second. The projectiles impacted on dry and water‐saturated Seeberger Sandstone targets. The study includes investigations of the influence of pore water on the shape of the ejecta cloud as well as transient crater growth. The results show a significant influence of pore water on ejecta behavior. Steeper ejecta cone angles are observed if the impacts are conducted on wet sandstones. The transient crater grows at a faster rate and reaches a larger diameter if the target is water saturated. In our experiments, target porosity leads to smaller crater sizes compared with nonporous targets. Water within the pore space reduces porosity and counteracts this process. Power law fits were applied to the crater growth curves. The results show an increase in the scaling exponent μ with increasing pore space saturation.     

Experimental Studies of Magnetically Driven Plasma Jets

We present experimental results on the formation of supersonic, radiatively cooled jets driven by pressure due to the toroidal magnetic field generated by the 1.5 MA, 250 ns current from the MAGPIE generator. The morphology of the jet produced in the experiments is relevant to astrophysical jet scenarios in which a jet on the axis of a magnetic cavity is collimated by a toroidal magnetic field as it expands into the ambient medium. The jets in the experiments have similar Mach number, plasma beta and cooling parameter to those in protostellar jets. Additionally the Reynolds, magnetic Reynolds and Peclet numbers are much larger than unity, allowing the experiments to be scaled to astrophysical flows. The experimental configuration allows for the generation of episodic magnetic cavities, suggesting that periodic fluctuations near the source may be responsible for some of the variability observed in astrophysical jets. Preliminary measurements of kinetic, magnetic and Poynting energy of the jets in our experiments are presented and discussed, together with estimates of their temperature and trapped toroidal magnetic field.     

Stereo topographic models of Mercury after three MESSENGER flybys

From photogrammetric analysis of stereo images of Mercury obtained during three MESSENGER flybys, we have produced three digital terrain models (DTMs) that have a grid spacing of 1 km and together cover 30% of the planet's surface. The terrain models provide a rich source of information on the morphology of Mercury's surface, including details of tectonic scarp systems as well as impact craters and basins. More than 400 craters larger than 15 km in diameter are included in the models. Additionally, the models provide important test cases for the analysis of stereo image data to be collected during MESSENGER's orbital mission phase. Small lateral offsets and differences in trends between stereo DTMs and laser altimeter profiles may be due to remaining errors in spacecraft position, instrument pointing, or Mercury coordinate knowledge. Such errors should be resolved during the orbital mission phase, when more joint analyses of data and detailed orbit modeling will be possible.