Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change

The integrated assessment models (IAMs) that economists use to analyze the expected costs and benefits of climate policies frequently suggest that the “optimal” policy is to go slowly and to do relatively little in the near term to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We trace this finding to the contestable assumptions and limitations of IAMs. For example, they typically discount future impacts from climate change at relatively high rates. This practice may be appropriate for short-term financial decisions but its extension to intergenerational environmental issues rests on several empirically and philosophically controversial hypotheses. IAMs also assign monetary values to the benefits of climate mitigation on the basis of incomplete information and sometimes speculative judgments concerning the monetary worth of human lives and ecosystems, while downplaying scientific uncertainty about the extent of expected damages. In addition, IAMs may exaggerate mitigation costs by failing to reflect the socially determined, path-dependent nature of technical change and ignoring the potential savings from reduced energy utilization and other opportunities for innovation. A better approach to climate policy, drawing on recent research on the economics of uncertainty, would reframe the problem as buying insurance against catastrophic, low-probability events. Policy decisions should be based on a judgment concerning the maximum tolerable increase in temperature and/or carbon dioxide levels given the state of scientific understanding. The appropriate role for economists would then be to determine the least-cost global strategy to achieve that target. While this remains a demanding and complex problem, it is far more tractable and epistemically defensible than the cost-benefit comparisons attempted by most IAMs.     

中国南京与美国德克萨斯稻田甲烷排放的比较

Field measurements of methane emission from rice paddies were made in Nanjing, China and in Texas, USA, respectively. Soil temperature at approximately 10 cm depth of the flooded soils was automatically recorded. Aboveground biomass of rice crop was measured approximately every 10 days in Nanjing and every other week in Texas. Seasonal variation of soil temperature in Nanjing was quite wide with a magnitude of 15.3℃ and that in Texas was narrow with a magnitude of 2.9℃. Analysis of methane emission fluxes against soil temperature and rice biomass production demonstrated that the seasonal course of methane emission in Nanjing was mostly attributed to soil temperature changes, while that in Texas was mainly related to rice biomass production. We concluded that under the permanent flooding condition, the seasonal trend of methane emission would be determined by the soil temperature where there was a wide variation of soil temperature, and the seasonal trend would be mainly determined by rice biomass production if there are no additional organic matter inputs and the variation of soil temperature over the rice growing season is small.     

A methodology to estimate renewal time scales in estuaries: the Tagus Estuary case

High-resolution hydrodynamic models are a common tool to simulate water dynamics in estuaries. Results from these models are, however, difficult to interpret without the aid of additional parameters to integrate the information. In this paper a methodology to understand the transport patterns in the Tagus Estuary is proposed. It is based on the computation of two renewal time scales: residence time and integrated water fraction. This last parameter is used to build a dependency matrix that gives the integrated influence of each region of the estuary at a selected point. The parameters are computed using a Lagrangian transport model coupled to the hydrodynamic model. Results show that Tagus Estuary has two different types of regions: the central part of the estuary, with low renewal efficiency, and three regions with higher renewal efficiency. Renewal mechanisms are, however, different for each region as shown by the dependency matrix. Comparison of renewal time scales with results from a water-quality model revealed that residence time is not a limiting parameter for primary production in the Tagus Estuary.Responsible Editor: Hans Burchard     

Late Quaternary history of the Vakinankaratra volcanic field (central Madagascar): insights from luminescence dating of phreatomagmatic eruption deposits

The Quaternary Vakinankaratra volcanic field in the central Madagascar highlands consists of scoria cones, lava flows, tuff rings, and maars. These volcanic landforms are the result of processes triggered by intracontinental rifting and overlie Precambrian basement or Neogene volcanic rocks. Infrared-stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dating was applied to 13 samples taken from phreatomagmatic eruption deposits in the Antsirabe–Betafo region with the aim of constraining the chronology of the volcanic activity. Establishing such a chronology is important for evaluating volcanic hazards in this densely populated area. Stratigraphic correlations of eruption deposits and IRSL ages suggest at least five phreatomagmatic eruption events in Late Pleistocene times. In the Lake Andraikiba region, two such eruption layers can be clearly distinguished. The older one yields ages between 109?±?15 and 90?±?11 ka and is possibly related to an eruption at the Amboniloha volcanic complex to the north. The younger one gives ages between 58?±?4 and 47?±?7 ka and is clearly related to the phreatomagmatic eruption that formed Lake Andraikiba. IRSL ages of a similar eruption deposit directly overlying basement laterite in the vicinity of the Fizinana and Ampasamihaiky volcanic complexes yield coherent ages of 68?±?7 and 65?±?8 ka. These ages provide the upper age limit for the subsequently developed Iavoko, Antsifotra, and Fizinana scoria cones and their associated lava flows. Two phreatomagmatic deposits, identified near Lake Tritrivakely, yield the youngest IRSL ages in the region, with respective ages of 32?±?3 and 19?±?2 ka. The reported K-feldspar IRSL ages are the first recorded numerical ages of phreatomagmatic eruption deposits in Madagascar, and our results confirm the huge potential of this dating approach for reconstructing the volcanic activity of Late Pleistocene to Holocene volcanic provinces.     

Reflection moveout inversion in azimuthally anisotropic media: accuracy, limitations and acquisition

Parameter estimation from the elliptical variations in the normal-moveout (NMO) velocity in azimuthally anisotropic media is sensitive to the angular separation between the survey lines in 2D, or equivalently, the source-to-receiver azimuth in 3D, and to the set of azimuths used in the inversion procedure. The accuracy in estimating the orientation of an NMO ellipse, in particular the parameter α, is also sensitive to the magnitude of anisotropy. On the other hand, the accuracy in estimating the semi-axes of the NMO-velocity ellipse is about the same for any magnitude of anisotropy.   To invert for the NMO ellipse parameters at least three NMO-velocity measurements along distinct azimuth directions are needed. In order to maximize the accuracy and stability in parameter estimation, it is best to have the azimuths for the three source-to-receiver directions 60° apart. Having more than three distinct source-to-receiver azimuths (e.g. full azimuthal coverage) provides a useful data redundancy that enhances the quality of the estimates.   In order to maximize quality in the inversion process, it is recommended to design the seismic data acquisition such that it contains small sectors (≤10°) with adequate fold and offset distribution.   Using three NMO-velocity measurements, 60° apart, an azimuthally anisotropic layer overlain by an azimuthally isotropic overburden (as might occur for fractured reservoirs) should have a relative thickness (in time) with respect to the total thickness at least equal to the ratio of the error in the NMO (stacking) velocity to the interval anisotropy of the fractured layer. Coverage along more than three azimuths, however, improves this limitation, which is imposed by Dix differentiation, by at most 50%, depending on the number of observations (NMO velocities) that enter the inversion procedure.     

A record of changing redox conditions in the northern Peru Basin during the Late Quaternary deduced from Mn/Fe and growth rate variations in two diagenetic manganese nodules

Two diagenetic manganese nodules from the Peru Basin were investigated by thermal ionization mass spectrometry and high resolution alpha spectrometry for uranium and thorium. The TIMS concentrations for nodule 62KD (63KG) vary as follows: 0.12–1.01 ppb (0.06–0.59) ²³⁰Th, 0.51–1.98 ppm (0.43–1.40) ²³²Th, 0.13–0.80 ppb (0.09–0.49) ²³⁴U, and 1.95–13.47 ppm (1.66–8.24) ²³⁸U. Both nodules have average growth rates of 110 mm per million years. However, from the variations of excess ²³⁰Th with depth we estimate partial accumulation rates which range from 50 to 400 mm per million years. The δ²³⁴U dating method cannot be applied due to remobilization of U from the sediment and subsequent incorporation into the nodules' crystal lattice, reflected by decay corrected δ²³⁴U values far above the ocean water value. Sections of fast nodule growth are related to those layers having high Mn/Fe ratios (up to 200) and higher densities. As a possible explanation we develop a scenario that describes similar glacial/interglacial trends in both nodules as a record of regional changes of sediment and/or deep water chemistry.     

In-phase anomalies in Beryllium-10 production and palaeomagnetic field behaviour during the Iceland Basin geomagnetic excursion

Increases in the production rate of cosmogenic radionuclides associated with geomagnetic excursions have been used as global tie-points for correlation between records of past climate from marine and terrestrial archives. We have investigated the relative timing of variations in ¹⁰Be production rate and the corresponding palaeomagnetic signal during one of the largest Pleistocene excursions, the Iceland Basin (IB) event (ca. 190 kyr), as recorded in two marine sediment cores (ODP Sites 1063 and 983) with high sedimentation rates. Variations in ¹⁰Be production rate during the excursion were estimated by use of ²³⁰Th_xs normalized ¹⁰Be deposition rates and authigenic ¹⁰Be/⁹Be. Resulting ¹⁰Be production rates are compared with high-resolution records of geomagnetic field behaviour acquired from the same discrete samples. We find no evidence for a significant lock-in depth of the palaeomagnetic signal in these high sedimentation-rate cores. Apparent lock-in depths in other cores may sometimes be the result of lower sample resolution. Our results also indicate that the period of increased ¹⁰Be production during the IB excursion lasted longer and, most likely, started earlier than the corresponding palaeomagnetic anomaly, in accordance with previous observations that polarity transitions occur after periods of reduced geomagnetic field intensity prior to the transition. The lack of evidence in this study for a significant palaeomagnetic lock-in depth suggests that there is no systematic offset between the ¹⁰Be signal and palaeomagnetic anomalies associated with excursions and reversals, with significance for the global correlation of climate records from different archives.     

Stress Changes Modelled for the Sequence of Strong Earthquakes in the South Iceland Seismic Zone Since 1706

The South Iceland seismic zone is, roughly speaking, situated between two sections of the mid-Atlantic ridge, i.e., the Reykjanes Ridge southwest of Iceland and the Eastern Volcanic Zone on the island. It is a transform zone, where earthquakes are expected to occur on E-W-trending left-lateral shear faults, equivalent to conjugate, N-S-oriented right-lateral, rupture planes. In fact, earthquakes take place on en-échelon N-S-oriented faults, which is indicated by the distribution of main shock intensities, aftershocks as well as by surface fault traces. The stress field continuously generated in the fault zone by opening of the adjacent ridges is computed and superimposed on the stress field changes induced by a series of 13 earthquakes (M 6) between 1706 and 2000. The level of the pre-seismic stress field is analysed as well as the size of the area under high stress. Finally, the post-seismic stress field of June 2000 is analysed, to see where high stresses might have accumulated. The modelling indicates that the rupture planes located on separated parallel N-S-striking zones are dense enough to lead to an area-wide stress release by the series of events. The obtained pre-seismic stress level for most events is high and stable with the exception of situations when several strong shocks occur over a time span of several days, i.e., display typical main shock-aftershock patterns. The size of areas under high stress aside from of the rupture plane, i.e., where no event occurs at the specific time, is of medium to small size.     

Demarcation and Scaling of Long-term Seismogenesis

A space-time envelope of minor seismicity related to major shallow earthquakes is identified from observations of the long-term Precursory Scale Increase () phenomenon, which quantifies the three-stage faulting model of seismogenesis. The envelope, which includes the source area of the major earthquake, is here demarcated for 47 earthquakes from four regions, with tectonic regimes ranging from subduction to continental collision and continental transform. The earthquakes range in magnitude from 5.8 to 8.2, and include the 24 most recent mainshocks of magnitude 6.4 and larger in the San Andreas system of California, the Hellenic Arc region of Greece, and the New Zealand region, together with the six most recent mainshocks of magnitude 7.4 and larger in the Pacific Arc region of Japan. Also included are the destructive earthquakes that occurred at Kobe, Japan (1995, magnitude 7.2), Izmit, Turkey (1999, magnitude 7.4), and W.Tottori, Japan (2000, magnitude 7.3). The space (A _P ) in the space-time envelope is optimised with respect to the scale increase, while the time (T _P ) is the interval between the onset of the scale increase and the occurrence of the earthquake. A strong correlation is found between the envelope A _P T _P and the magnitude of the earthquake; hence the conclusion that the set of precursory earthquakes contained in the envelope is intrinsic to the seismogenic process. Yet A _P and T _P are correlated only weakly with each other, suggesting that A _P is affected by differences in statical conditions, such as geological structure and lithology, and T _P by differences in dynamical conditions, such as plate velocity. Among other scaling relations, predictive regressions are found between, on the one hand, the magnitude level of the precursory seismicity, and on the other hand, both T _P and the major earthquake magnitude. Hence the method, as here applied to retrospective analysis, is potentially adaptable to long-range forecasting of the place, time and magnitude of major earthquakes.