The great 1787 Mexican tsunami

Tsunamis have proven to represent a significant hazard around the globe and there is increased awareness about their occurrence. The Pacific coast in southern México is no exception, because there is firm evidence of the effects of past large tsunamis. Here we present results from computer-aided modeling of the March 28, 1787-“San Sixto” earthquake and tsunami, and focus on the regions of Acapulco, Corralero, Jamiltepec, and Tehuantepec, located along the Guerrero-Oaxaca coast. The theoretical waveforms suggest wave heights in excess of 4 m and 18 m at specific locations in Acapulco and Corralero, respectively, and wave heights of at least 2 m at locations in Jamiltepec and Tehuantepec. From our modeling results and based on historical documents and the topography of the area, we conclude that these wave heights would have been sufficient to cause inundations that in the case of Acapulco were restricted to several meters inland, but in other areas like Corralero reached at least 6 km inland. Our results are consistent with published and unpublished damage reports that attest to the hazards associated with great earthquakes and tsunamis along the subduction zone in Mexico     

Gravimetric Determination of Storage Coefficient and Storage Change of Groundwater in an Uncontrolled and Unconfined Aquifer

Natural Resources Research - Adequate management of water resources in aquifer systems implies knowledge of the different parameters of hydrological balance. However, only limited data exist for...     

Fluid circulation in a complex volcano-tectonic setting,inferred from self-potential and soil CO2 flux surveys: The Santa María–Cerro Quemado–Zunil volcanoes and Xela caldera (Northwestern Guatemala)

The region encompassing Santa María, Cerro Quemado, and Zunil volcanoes, close to Quetzaltenango, the second largest city of Guatemala, is volcanically and tectonically complex. In addition, the huge Xela caldera, about 20 km in diameter, crosses this area and links up to the important Zunil fault zone located between the three volcanoes. Two highly active geothermal sites, named Zunil-I and Zunil-II, are also located between these three volcanic edifices at the southeastern boundary of Xela caldera. In order to determine the permeability variations and the main structural discontinuities within this complex volcano-tectonic setting, self-potential and soil CO₂ flux measurements have been coupled, with a step of 20 m, along a 16.880 km-long profile crossing the entire area. Two shallow hydrothermal systems, with maximum lateral extensions of 1.5 km in diameter, are indicated by positive self-potential/elevation gradients below Santa María and Cerro Quemado volcanoes. Such small hydrothermal systems cannot explain the intense geothermal manifestations at Zunil-I and Zunil-II. Another minor hydrothermal system is indicated by self-potential measurements on the flank of Santa María along the edge of the Xela caldera. CO₂ flux measurements display slight variations inside the caldera and decreasing values crossing outside the caldera boundary. We hypothesize the presence of a magmatic body, inside the southeastern border of Xela caldera, to explain the deeper and more intense hydrothermal system manifested by the Zunil-I and the Zunil-II geothermal fields. This magmatic system may be independent from Santa María and Cerro Quemado volcanoes. Alternatively, the hypothesized Xela magmatic system could have a common magmatic origin with the Cerro Quemado dome complex, consistent with previous findings on regional gas emissions. Sectors bordering the Cerro Quemado dome complex also have high amplitude minima-short wavelength anomalies in self-potential, interpreted as preferential rain water infiltration along faults of major permeability, probably related with the most recent stages of Cerro Quemado dome growth.     

Continuation of normal doubly symmetric orbits in conservative reversible systems

In this paper we introduce the concept of a quasi-submersive mapping between two finite-dimensional spaces, we obtain the main properties of such mappings, and we introduce “normality conditions” under which a particular class of so-called “constrained mappings” are quasi-submersive at their zeros. Our main application is concerned with the continuation properties of normal doubly symmetric orbits in time-reversible systems with one or more first integrals. As examples we study the continuation of the figure-eight and the supereight choreographies in the N-body problem.     

Potential implications of global warming and barrier island degradation on future hurricane inundation,property damages,and population impacted

Hurricane flooding is a leading natural threat to coastal communities. Recent evidence of sea level rise coupled with potential future global warming indicate that sea level rise will accelerate and hurricanes may intensify over the coming decades. In regions fronted by barrier islands, the protective capacity of these islands may diminish as they are degraded by rising sea level. Here we present a hydrodynamic and geospatial analysis of the relative role of barrier island degradation on potential future hurricane flooding. For the City of Corpus Christi, Texas, USA, hurricane flooding is projected to rise between 20% and 70% by the 2030s, resulting in an increase in property damages and impacted population. These findings indicate that adaptive management strategies should be developed and adopted for mitigating loss of natural barrier islands when these islands act as protective features for populated bayside communities. Finally, this study illustrates a method for applying models to forecast future storm protection benefits of barrier island restoration projects.     

Asteroid 2002NY40 as a source of meteorite-dropping bolides

The existence of asteroidal meteoroid streams capable of producing meteorite-dropping bolides has long being invoked, but evidence is scarce. Recent modelling of previously reported associations suggests that the time-scales to keep the orbital coherence of these streams producing meteorites are too short. We present an unequivocal association between near earth object (NEO) 2002NY40 and at least one bright fireball detected over Finland in 2006 August. Another two additional fireballs recorded from Spain and Finland seem to be related, together producing a fireball-producing stream (β Aquarids). On the basis of historical data, the 2006 finding suggests the existence of a meteoroid complex capable of producing meteorites. Taking into account present time-scales for orbital decoherence, if 2002NY40 has large meteoroids associated with it, such behaviour would be the consequence of a relatively recent asteroidal fragmentation. Supporting our claim, the heliocentric orbits of two recently discovered NEOs, 2004NL8 and 2002NY40, were found to exhibit a good similarity to each other and also to the orbits of the three bolides. The fireball spectra of the two Finish bolides showed that the chemical abundances of these objects are consistent with the main elements found in chondrites. This result is consistent with the probable Low iron, Low metal (LL) chondritic mineralogy of asteroid 2002NY40. Consequently, this asteroid may be delivering LL chondrites to the Earth. Additional fireball reports found in the literature suggest that the associated β Aquarid complex may have been delivering meteorites to the Earth during, at least, the last millennium.     

New applications of the Poisson distribution in micropalaeontology: relationships between environmental variables and the Ammonia tepida distribution in the south‐western Spanish estuaries

The application of the Poisson regression to the populations of the benthic foraminifer Ammonia tepida collected in three south‐western Spanish estuaries permits to obtain a quantitative approach between some environmental variables and the number of individuals of this species. Although the three general models are unsatisfactory to predict the observed abundance of this micro‐organism, a partial statistical analysis permits to detect quantitatively the impact of each variable. This analysis indicates an increasing abundance from the high‐salt marshes to the subtidal channels and higher densities in those samples subjected to very euryhaline conditions. Increasing sand percentages show negative effects on the A. tepida abundance, whereas the silt contents do not affect significantly to this species and increasing organic carbon percentages have a small positive effect on the A. tepida densities.     

STANOVA: a smoothed-ANOVA-based model for spatio-temporal disease mapping

Spatio-temporal disease mapping can be viewed as a multivariate disease mapping problem with a given order of the geographic patterns to be studied. As a consequence, some of the techniques in multivariate literature could also be used to build spatio-temporal models. In this paper we propose using the smoothed ANOVA multivariate model for spatio-temporal problems. Under our approach the time trend for each geographic unit is modeled parametrically, projecting it on a preset orthogonal basis of functions (the contrasts in the smoothed ANOVA nomenclature), while the coefficients of these projections are considered to be spatially dependent random effects. Despite the parametric temporal nature of our proposal, we show with both simulated and real datasets that it may be as flexible as other spatio-temporal smoothing models proposed in the literature and may model spatio-temporal data with several sources of variability.