Evaluation of methods of spatial interpolation for monthly rainfall data over the state of Rio de Janeiro,Brazil

Five deterministic methods of spatial interpolation of monthly rainfall were compared over the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil. The methods were the inverse distance weight (IDW), nearest neighbor (NRN), triangulation with linear interpolation (TLI), natural neighbor (NN), and spline tension (SPT). A set of 110 weather stations was used to test the methods. The selection of stations had two criteria: time series longer than 20 years and period of data from 1960 to 2009. The methods were evaluated using cross-validation, linear regression between values observed and interpolated, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (r ²), coefficient of variation (CV, %), and the Willmott index of agreement (d). The results from different methods are influenced by the meteorological systems and their seasonality, as well as by the interaction with the topography. The methods presented higher precision (r ²) and accuracy (d, RMSE) during the summer and transition to autumn, in comparison with the winter or spring months. The SPT had the highest precision and accuracy in relation to other methods, in addition to having a good representation of the spatial patterns expected for rainfall over the complex terrain of the state and its high spatial variability.     

Some Insights into Topographic,Elastic and Self-gravitation Interaction in Modelling Ground Deformation and Gravity Changes in Active Volcanic Areas

Surface displacements and gravity changes due to volcanic sources are influenced by medium properties. We investigate topographic, elastic and self-gravitation interaction in order to outline the major factors that are significant in data modelling. While elastic-gravitational models can provide a suitable approximation to problems of volcanic loading in areas where topographic relief is negligible, for prominent volcanoes the rough topography could affect deformation and gravity changes to a greater extent than self-gravitation. This fact requires the selection, depending on local relief, of a suitable model for use in the interpretation of surface precursors of volcanic activity. We use the three-dimensional Indirect Boundary Element Method to examine the effects of topography on deformation and gravity changes in models of magma chamber inflation/deflation. Topography has a significant effect on predicted surface deformation and gravity changes. Both the magnitude and pattern of the geodetic signals are significantly different compared to half-space solutions. Thus, failure to account for topographic effects in areas of prominent relief can bias the estimate of volcanic source parameters, since the magnitude and pattern of deformation and gravity changes depend on such effects.     

Top-down and bottom-up modelling to support low-carbon scenarios: climate policy implications

Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options.

Policy relevance

The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries.     

Measuring individual vulnerability to floods in the lower and middle Grijalva River Basin,Tabasco, Mexico

Natural Hazards - We built an easy-to-interpret individual vulnerability index to floods that is amenable for empirical testing and may be adapted to any perceived hazard or ecological setting. An...     

Climate change implications for irrigation and groundwater in the Republican River Basin,USA

This study investigates the influence of climate change on groundwater availability, and thereby, irrigation across political boundaries within the US High Plains aquifer. A regression model is developed to predict changes in irrigation according to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature from a downscaled dataset of 32 general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation recharge changes are calculated with precipitation-recharge curves developed for prognostic representations of precipitation across the Nebraska-Colorado-Kansas area and within the Republican River Basin focal landscape. Irrigation-recharge changes are scaled with changes in irrigation. The groundwater responses to climate forcings are then simulated under new pumping and recharge rates using a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that groundwater pumping and recharge both will increase and that the effects of groundwater pumping will overshadow those from natural fluctuations. Groundwater levels will decline more in areas with irrigation-driven decreasing trends in the baseline. The methodologies and predictions of this study can inform long-term water planning and the design of management strategies that help avoid and resolve water-related conflicts, enabling irrigation sustainability.     

A formal framework for the representation of stack-based terrains

This paper presents a formal framework for the representation of three-dimensional geospatial data and the definition of common geographic information system (GIS) spatial operations. We use the compact stack-based representation of terrains (SBRT) in order to model geological volumetric data, both at the surface and subsurface levels, thus preventing the large storage requirements of regular voxel models. The main contribution of this paper is fitting the SBRT into the geo-atom theory in a seamless way, providing it with a sound formal geographic foundation. In addition we have defined a set of common spatial operations on this representation using the tools provided by map algebra. More complex geoprocessing operations or geophysical simulations using the SBRT as representation can be implemented as a composition of these fundamental operations. Finally a data model and an implementation extending the coverage concept provided by the Geography Markup Language standard are suggested. Geoscientists and GIS professionals can take advantage of this model to exchange and reuse geoinformation within a well-specified framework.     

A genetic classification of sinkholes illustrated from evaporite paleokarst exposures in Spain

This contribution analyses the processes involved in the generation of sinkholes from the study of paleokarst features exposed in four Spanish Tertiary basins. Bedrock strata are subhorizontal evaporites, and in three of the basins they include halite and glauberite in the subsurface. Our studies suggest that formation of dolines in these areas results from a wider range of subsidence processes than those included in the most recently published sinkhole classifications; a new genetic classification of sinkholes applicable to both carbonate and evaporite karst areas is thus proposed. With the exception of solution dolines, it defines the main sinkhole types by use of two terms that refer to the material affected by downward gravitational movements (cover, bedrock or caprock) and the main type of process involved (collapse, suffosion or sagging). Sinkholes that result from the combination of several subsidence processes and affect more than one type of material are described by combinations of the different terms with the dominant material or process followed by the secondary one (e.g. bedrock sagging and collapse sinkhole). The mechanism of collapse includes any brittle gravitational deformation of cover and bedrock material, such as upward stoping of cavities by roof failure, development of well-defined failure planes and rock brecciation. Suffosion is the downward migration of cover deposits through dissolutional conduits accompanied with ductile settling. Sagging is the ductile flexure of sediments caused by differential corrosional lowering of the rockhead or interstratal karstification of the soluble bedrock. The paleokarsts we analysed suggest that the sagging mechanism (not included in previous genetic classifications) plays an important role in the generation of sinkholes in evaporites. Moreover, collapse processes are more significant in extent and rate in areas underlain by evaporites than in carbonate karst, primarily due to the greater solubility of the evaporites and the lower mechanical strength and ductile rheology of gypsum and salt rocks.     

Climatic zoning for the calculation of the thermal demand of buildings in Extremadura (Spain)

The present work reports on a methodology to assess the climatic severity of a particular geographic region as compared to specific information available in the current regulations. The viability for each of the 387 municipalities in the Autonomous Community of Extremadura (Spain) is analysed, making a distinction between those with reliable climate reports and those for which no such information is available. In the case study, although the weather conditions in Extremadura are quite homogeneous according to the Spanish Technical Building Code (STBC 2015) classification and most areas are associated to zone C4 (soft winters and hot summers), the southern area in the region is associated to zone D1, similar to the north of Spain, where winters and summers are cool, which does not coincide with the actual climate in the south of Extremadura. The general climatic homogeneity in Extremadura was also highlighted with the new procedure, predominating zone C4, but unexpected or unreal climatic zoning was not generated, giving place to a consistent spatial distribution of zones throughout the region. Consequently, the proposed method allows a more accurate climatic zoning of any region in agreement with the Spanish legislation on energy efficiency in buildings, which would enhance the setting of thermal demand rates according to the actual climatic characterisation of the area in which a particular municipality is located.