Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessment. A case study from the Ebro Valley evaporite alluvial karst (NE Spain)

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km² year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology (precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km²) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km² year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km² year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence. Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes.     

Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.     

Orbital Elements of 2004 Perseid Meteoroids Perturbed by Jupiter

Jupiter and Saturn produce important gravitational impulses on meteoroids released by comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle. The meteoroids from this comet once released follow retrograde orbits that during their periodic approaches to these planets (within 1.6 and 0.9 A.U., respectively) are impulsed gaining orbital energy. This perturbation effect is translated into a net inward shift in the node of the perturbed meteoroids. Such geometry with Jupiter occurred in 2004 over a meteoroid trail ejected by this comet during the 1862 A.D. return of the comet to perihelion. In order to study the predicted outburst produced by one-revolution meteoroids, the Spanish Photographic Meteor Network (SPMN) performed an extensive campaign. As a part of this observational effort here are presented 10 accurate meteoroid orbits. We discuss their origin by comparing them with the theoretical orbital elements of the dust trails intercepting the Earth during the 2004 Perseid return.     

The Jovian ammonia abundance from interferometric observations of limb darkening at 3.4 mm

The interferometer visibility of Jupiter, observed at a wavelength of 3.4 mm, is used to determine the global limb darkening of the planet's brightness. From a single-parameter fit to the visibility curve, we find an ammonia-to-molecular hydrogen mixing ratio of 6.4[+5.1, ?1.9] × 10^?5, which corresponds to 35[+28, ?10]% of the solar nitrogen abundance if all of the nitrogen is in the form of ammonia. The fitting procedure uses a simple model atmosphere for the Jovian atmosphere which is based on other observations of the planet. The dependence of the result on the various model parameters is studied.     

Community structure and dynamics of deep-water decapod assemblages from Le Danois Bank (Cantabrian Sea, NE Atlantic): Influence of environmental variables and food availability

The community structure of the decapod crustaceans inhabiting Le Danois Bank (Cantabrian Sea, NE Atlantic Ocean) was studied on two cruises performed in October 2003 and April 2004. Otter and beam-trawls were used to collect this fauna. At depths ranging between 455 and 1048 m, we found distinct decapod assemblages on the bank summit and deeper in the inner basin (between the bank and the continental shelf). The faunal discontinuity between these groups appeared at around 600 m (e.g. between 612 and 642 m in the basis of species replacement). The summit assemblage was characterized by low diversity (in terms of number and relative abundances of species) and by the dominance of hermit crabs (Pagurus alatus, Anapagurus laevis, Pagurus excavatus), the crangonid Pontophilus spinosus and the squat lobster Munida sarsi. Species characterizing the deeper assemblage, which was richer in terms of diversity, were Munida tenuimana, Parapagurus pilosimanus, Pontophilus norvegicus, the crab Geryon trispinosus and a number of bathypelagic shrimps (Sergia robusta, Acanthephyra pelagica and Pasiphaea tarda). Changes in decapod composition characterized by multidimensional scaling analyses were correlated with different variables, e.g. %mud and %organic matter (OM), temperature and salinity close to the bottom. Among those the %OM and %mud in sediments affected decapod distributions the most. The summit of the bank was covered by fine sediments with low proportion of mud (13.9–29.3%) and OM (2.55–3.50%). By contrast, sediment of the inner basin had a higher proportion of OM and mud (64.1–84.2%; 6.26–7.00%, respectively). The low proportion of mud at the summit of Le Danois Bank may explain the absence or scarcity of burrowing species (e.g. the lobster Nephrops norvegicus, the shrimps Calocaris macandreae and Alpheus glaber and the crab Goneplax rhomboides), that are dominant at similar depths (400–500 m) in the upper muddy assemblage on the mainland-continental slope in the Bay of Biscay (44–46°N). The dominance of certain species on the summit of submarine mounts can probably be related to their biology and feeding ecology. For example, pagurids are deposit feeders, even consuming marine snow (e.g. Chl-a identified in guts of Pagurus alatus), and they have low gut fullness (probably indicating a capacity to withstand long periods under starvation), that would favour their adaptability to a rather unpredictable habitat such as Le Danois Bank summit. Regarding prey availability, zooplankton/micronekton and infauna distributed around Le Danois Bank showed different depth-related patterns. Among zooplankton, mesopelagic decapods, mysids, and fishes were absent at the bank summit, while euphausiids exhibited high abundances over the summit. No significant trends with depth were found for infauna abundance, and for instance polychaete densities were similar both at the summit and the inner basin. Therefore, prey availability was lower for summit assemblages regarding zooplankton/micronekton. Patterns in mean size vs. depth were species specific for decapods, and the possible role of the bank summit as a recruitment area was not general for the whole decapod assemblage.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

The analysis of consolidation by a quasi-Newton technique

A quasi-Newton algorithm is implemented for the solution of multi-dimensional, linear consolidation problems. The study is motivated by the need to implement an efficient equation-solving technique for the solution of large systems of equations typical in problems of consolidation of saturated porous media. The proposed procedure obviates the need to reassemble and re-factorize the global coefficient matrix every load increment, albeit the time step may be held variable in the analysis. The method employs the combined techniques of ‘line search’ and BFGS updates applied to the coupled equations. A numerical example is presented to show that the proposed method is computationally more efficient than the conventional direct equation-solving scheme, particularly when solving large systems of finite element equations.     

Elucidation of different forms of organic carbon in marine sediments from the Atlantic coast of Spain using thermal analysis coupled to isotope ratio and quadrupole mass spectrometry

Analysis of river, estuary and marine sediments from the Atlantic coast of Spain using thermogravimetry–differential scanning calorimetry–quadrupole mass spectrometry–isotope ratio mass spectrometry (TG–DSC–QMS–IRMS) was used to (a) distinguish bulk chemical hosts for C within a sediment and humic acid fraction, (b) track C pools with differing natural C isotope ratios and (c) observe variation with distance from the coast. This is the first application of such a novel method to the characterisation of organic matter from marine sediments and their corresponding humic acid fractions. Using thermal analysis, a labile, a recalcitrant and a refractory carbon pool can be distinguished. Extracted humic fractions are mainly of recalcitrant nature. The proportion of refractory carbon is greatest in marine sediments and humic acid fractions. Quadrupole mass spectrometry confirmed that the greatest proportion of m/z 44 (CO₂) and m/z 18 (H₂O) were detected at temperatures associated with recalcitrant carbon (510–540 °C). Isotope analysis detected progressive enrichment in δ¹³C for the sediment samples with an increase in marine influence. Isotopic heterogeneity in the refractory organic matter in marine sediments could be due to products of anthropogenic origin or natural combustion products. Isotope homogeneity of humic acids confirms the presence of terrigenous C in marine sediments, allowing the terrestrial input to be characterised.