An evaluation of UKMO one-month ensemble forecasts of MSLP in the Southern Hemisphere

Summary ?We evaluate United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) one-month ensemble forecasts of mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) in the southern hemisphere (SH) to 60° S, with a special focus on their utility near New Zealand (NZ). There are 105 9-member ensembles, at approximately two-week intervals, between 1995 and 1999. Each forecast is averaged over two successive 15-day periods and verified against the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set. Compared to climatology, the skill of the ensemble mean is slightly positive in days 1–15, and slightly negative in days 16–30. Skill near NZ is slightly lower than the SH averages. For SH-scale circulation patterns (as seen in the first few principal components), skill is greater than for most individual grid points, but is still negligible or negative in days 16–30. Moderate skill-spread correlations (ρ ≈−0.5) were found for some skill scores. The way that skill varies with season and the Southern Oscillation Index is consistent with other research but not statistically significant for this small data set. Probabilistic forecasts of low and high pressures have skill similar to that of the ensemble mean. The ensemble spread is generally too small, in that the analysis lies within the ensemble less often than the theoretically optimum value of 80% of the time. Measured as a fraction of the natural variability, the spread increases substantially with time and latitude: it is less than 0.5 near the equator in days 1–15, and takes values near 1 only at higher latitudes during days 16–30. The initial sequential structure of the ensembles (a consequence of the use of time lags in their genesis) is still apparent in days 1–15 but has disappeared by days 16–30. Three potential alternatives to the ensemble mean were all found to have less skill than it. Received June 17, 2001; revised July 4, 2002; accepted November 22, 2002 Published online March 17, 2003     

Assessing Conservation Adoption Decision Criteria Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process: Case Studies from Three Midwestern Watersheds

Land use changes from natural ecosystems to industrial agriculture have impacted water quality and wildlife populations in the Mississippi River basin. Government programs providing technical assistance and monetary incentives have not resulted in adequate adoption rates of conservation practices. While there has been a plethora of research examining the factors associated with conservation adoption, significantly less is understood about the relative importance of these factors. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with agricultural producers in three Midwestern watersheds, we assess the relative importance of environmental and production decision criteria when making decisions to adopt conservation practices. Although AHP provides insight into how decisions may be made at the watershed scale, this methodology also provides insight into how individuals make conservation decisions and may also provide a method for delivering tailored conservation advice and communications.     

Incorporating spatially heterogeneous infiltration capacity into hydrologic models with applications for simulating post‐wildfire debris flow initiation

Soils in post‐wildfire environments are often characterized by a low infiltration capacity with a high degree of spatial heterogeneity relative to unburned areas. Debris flows are frequently initiated by run‐off in recently burned steeplands, making it critical to develop and test methods for incorporating spatial variability in infiltration capacity into hydrologic models. We use Monte Carlo simulations of run‐off generation over a soil with a spatially heterogenous saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) to derive an expression for an aerially averaged saturated hydraulic conductivity ( ) that depends on the rainfall rate, the statistical properties of K_s, and the spatial correlation length scale associated with K_s. The proposed method for determining is tested by simulating run‐off on synthetic topography over a wide range of spatial scales. Results provide a simplified expression for an effective saturated hydraulic conductivity that can be used to relate a distribution of small‐scale K_s measurements to infiltration and run‐off generation over larger spatial scales. Finally, we use a hydrologic model based on to simulate run‐off and debris flow initiation at a recently burned catchment in the Santa Ana Mountains, CA, USA, and compare results to those obtained using an infiltration model based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number.     

Stormy geomorphology: geomorphic contributions in an age of climate extremes

The increasing frequency and/or severity of extreme climate events are becoming increasingly apparent over multi‐decadal timescales at the global scale, albeit with relatively low scientific confidence. At the regional scale, scientific confidence in the future trends of extreme event likelihood is stronger, although the trends are spatially variable. Confidence in these extreme climate risks is muddied by the confounding effects of internal landscape system dynamics and external forcing factors such as changes in land use and river and coastal engineering. Geomorphology is a critical discipline in disentangling climate change impacts from other controlling factors, thereby contributing to debates over societal adaptation to extreme events. We review four main geomorphic contributions to flood and storm science. First, we show how palaeogeomorphological and current process studies can extend the historical flood record while also unraveling the complex interactions between internal geomorphic dynamics, human impacts and changes in climate regimes. A key outcome will be improved quantification of flood probabilities and the hazard dimension of flood risk. Second, we present evidence showing how antecedent geomorphological and climate parameters can alter the risk and magnitude of landscape change caused by extreme events. Third, we show that geomorphic processes can both mediate and increase the geomorphological impacts of extreme events, influencing societal risk. Fourthly, we show the potential of managing flood and storm risk through the geomorphic system, both near‐term (next 50 years) and longer‐term. We recommend that key methods of managing flooding and erosion will be more effective if risk assessments include palaeodata, if geomorphological science is used to underpin nature‐based management approaches, and if land‐use management addresses changes in geomorphic process regimes that extreme events can trigger. We argue that adopting geomorphologically‐grounded adaptation strategies will enable society to develop more resilient, less vulnerable socio‐geomorphological systems fit for an age of climate extremes. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Identification of the last glacial maximum in the Upper Paleolithic of Portugal using magnetic susceptibility measurements of Caldeirão Cave sediments

We have sampled Upper and Middle Paleolithic sediments in Caldeirão Cave, Portugal, for paleoclimatic analysis. This work involved measuring magnetic susceptibility (MS) on continuous vertical profiles of a series of ∼8 cc sediment samples, and using the MS data as a paleoclimate proxy. Previous work has shown that caves can be ideal recorders of paleoclimatic variations because they are protected environments. Pedogenesis outside the cave during time of cool climate produces sediments with low MS magnitudes, while warmer climates yield higher MS magnitudes. Eroded soils collect in caves in sediment sequences where futher pedogenesis and biological disturbance is minimal. Continuously sampled profiles of those sediments found in an archaeological context then allow paleoclimatic estimates for all archaeological levels. Results of our work here include identification of the last glacial maximum, at ca. 24,000–22,000 B.P. (calibrated), defined by very low MS values found in basal Solutrean levels in the cave. Distinctive ca. 2500 year Neo-glacial cycles, defined by the MS data within the Early Upper Paleolithic and Solutrean, are consistent with published ¹⁴C duration estimates for the Upper Paleolithic in Caldeirão Cave. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Low-order pressure gradient schemes in sigma coordinate models: The seamount test revisited

This paper revisits the classic seamount test used in numerous previous studies to evidence the sigma errors of the pressure gradient force (PGF) and their long-term effects on circulation. Two kinds of analysis are developed. We first consider the initial PGF errors. Then, the global level of erroneous kinetic energy is computed along a 180-day simulation. The long-term circulation appears to be better correlated to the initial vorticity errors than to the initial error diagnostics.The original feature of this study is to reconsider the currently admitted idea that Density-Jacobian type PGFs perform better than the primitive sigma formulation discretized in a straightforward way (hereafter Straightforward-Primitive PGF). Errors on the discrete hydrostatic pressure are actually closely related to the way the density field is initialized. If a mass conserving method is preferred to a straightforward initialization, the rectangular integral of the Straightforward-Primitive PGF is likely to be more accurate than the trapezoidal rule usually involved in Density-Jacobian PGFs. Errors on the vorticity field of the Straightforward-Primitive PGF depend on the discretization of the hydrostatic correction term. A modified version of the Straightforward-Primitive PGF is shown to be in better agreement with the concept of bottom torque consistency. The seamount tests show that this so-called Modified-Primitive PGF performs globally better than the current low-order Density-Jacobian PGFs.     

Post-rift volcanism and high heat-flow at the ocean-continent transition of the eastern Gulf of Aden

A high heat-flow (∼900 mW m⁻²) has been observed over a volcanic structure at the Ocean-Continent Transition in the Eastern Gulf of Aden (Oman margin). The anomaly is superposed to a progressive increase of heat-flow across the margin and can be interpreted either by (1) heat refraction, (2) fluid discharge or (3) cooling magma. The two first explanations cannot be ruled out definitely by modelling analysis, but require unlikely thermal conductivity or permeability values. The third one implies that the latest activity of the volcano was about 100 000 years old and therefore continued c. 18 Ma after the break-up of Africa and Arabia. This potential mechanism is consistent with other lines of evidence of post-rifting activity in the Gulf of Aden and could invalidate the conventional assumption that rifted-margins become passive after the break-up of continents.     

The massive stibnite veins of the French Palaeozoic basement: a metallogenic marker of Late Variscan brittle extension

The stibnite ore deposits of the French Palaeozoic basement are spatially related to major Late Variscan strike-slip faults. They occur as small discontinuous veins mostly hosted in epizonal or catazonal siliciclastics. Stibnite crystallizes in the final stage of a polymetallic paragenesis from an antimony-bearing solution, which deposits a first discrete Fe-As assemblage at 300–400°C and 0.5–0.8 Kbar. Experimental data have shown that antimony solubility drastically decreases on cooling. Characterization of the Late Variscan antimony-bearing fluids enables us to predict the temperature range - 270/150°C - under which stibnite was precipitated. Since the latter coincides with the fluid inclusion homogenization temperature range, the pressure at which stibnite crystallized can be estimated from vapour pressure data to have been around 0.1 Kbar. Extensional brittle shear zones, developed at the end of the Late Variscan orogeny (probably at the Westphalian/Stephanian boundary), drained the hydrothermal fluids near to the surface (c. 1000 m ?) reaching the critical P-T conditions for stibnite crystallization.     

Trends of grain sizes on gravel bars in the Rio Chagres, Panama

We examined the trends of grain sizes along the upper 414 km² of the mountainous Rio Chagres drainage basin in Panama. Gravel bars were sampled along 40 km of the Rio Chagres and five major tributary streams using a transect pebble count of median diameter, lithology, and clast rounding. Although previous investigators have found that downstream fining can be obscured by inputs of colluvial sediment and other local controls in mountain drainages, we decided to examine the trends of grain sizes along a tropical mountain river where rapid weathering and high capability of transport might be capable of overriding the input effects of colluvium. Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that downstream fining would be present as a result of selective sorting, and that weak felsic particles would decrease in size preferentially to strong mafic particles because of abrasion. Statistical analyses reveal a weak downstream decrease of sediment size on gravel bars along the study reach of the Rio Chagres, with a Sternberg diminution coefficient (α) for felsic and mafic grains of − 0.013 and − 0.017, respectively. Felsic clasts have thicker weathering rinds and become rounded downstream faster than mafic particles, but tumbling-mill tests of abrasion show no significant differences in rate of mass loss in relation to lithology, and downstream decreases in grain size are similar between lithologies. Dividing the study reach into six sub-reaches bounded by major tributary junctions, we further tested the hypothesis that downstream trends in fining might be obscured at the basin scale by sediment input from tributaries, but that trends in grain sizes might be more visible at the reach scale between tributaries. We did not find any consistent trends in grain size between tributaries. Stream width appears to assert a local control on grain size; coarse particles are associated with narrow channel reaches, whereas smaller particles are associated with wide channel reaches.