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71.
Impacts of extreme weather on wheat and maize in France: evaluating regional crop simulations against observed data 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Marijn van der Velde Francesco N. Tubiello Anton Vrieling Fay?al Bouraoui 《Climatic change》2012,113(3-4):751-765
Extreme weather conditions can strongly affect agricultural production, with negative impacts that can at times be detected at regional scales. In France, crop yields were greatly influenced by drought and heat stress in 2003 and by extremely wet conditions in 2007. Reported regional maize and wheat yields where historically low in 2003; in 2007 wheat yields were lower and maize yields higher than long-term averages. An analysis with a spatial version (10?×?10?km) of the EPIC crop model was tested with regards to regional crop yield anomalies of wheat and maize resulting from extreme weather events in France in 2003 and 2007, by comparing simulated results against reported regional crops statistics, as well as using remotely sensed soil moisture data. Causal relations between soil moisture and crop yields were specifically analyzed. Remotely sensed (AMSR-E) JJA soil moisture correlated significantly with reported regional crop yield for 2002–2007. The spatial correlation between JJA soil moisture and wheat yield anomalies was positive in dry 2003 and negative in wet 2007. Biweekly soil moisture data correlated positively with wheat yield anomalies from the first half of June until the second half of July in 2003. In 2007, the relation was negative the first half of June until the second half of August. EPIC reproduced observed soil dynamics well, and it reproduced the negative wheat and maize yield anomalies of the 2003 heat wave and drought, as well as the positive maize yield anomalies in wet 2007. However, it did not reproduce the negative wheat yield anomalies due to excessive rains and wetness in 2007. Results indicated that EPIC, in line with other crop models widely used at regional level in climate change studies, is capable of capturing the negative impacts of droughts on crop yields, while it fails to reproduce negative impacts of heavy rain and excessively wet conditions on wheat yield, due to poor representations of critical factors affecting plant growth and management. Given that extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and perhaps severity in coming decades, improved model representation of crop damage due to extreme events is warranted in order to better quantify future climate change impacts and inform appropriate adaptation responses. 相似文献
72.
Martino Amodio Paolo Bruno Maurizio Caselli Gianluigi de Gennaro Paolo Rosario Dambruoso Barbara Elisabetta Daresta Pieirna Ielpo Francesco Gungolo Claudia Marcella Placentino Vincenzo Paolillo Maria Tutino 《Atmospheric Research》2008,90(2-4):313-ICNAA07
Some peak PM10 episodes, occurred during PM monitoring campaigns performed on October 2005 and February and June 2006 in Bari town, have been characterized. Moreover back trajectories of air masses and Principal Component Analyses were applied. Three of the peak PM10 episodes investigated were related to local emissions of primary pollutants during poor atmospheric dispersion conditions. The other two peak PM10 episodes considered are related with long range transport air masses toward Apulia region: in one case the chemical characterization and the back trajectories analysis indicate that high PM10 value detected is due to the Saharan dust advection in the Apulia region; in the other case air masses with different origin give rise to high PM10 value.Moreover PM10 daily mean concentrations, presented in this paper collected from January 2005 to August 2007 and obtained by automatic device in six stations of air quality monitoring networks in Bari territory, do not show a seasonal trend for PM10 concentrations, contrary to the PM10 trend shown in the towns of North Italy. This can be explained mostly considering that our region presents generally meteo-climatic conditions that favour pollutants dispersion. 相似文献
73.
This article presents a methodology for designing a WebGIS framework intended for automatically analyzing spatial data and updating statistics of interest with new information inserted daily by multiple users via a Web portal. A practical example is used on vehicle accident data for assessing risk in specific road segments. Two main blocks integrated together will be described: the collaborative block and the data‐analysis block. The former gives end‐users computer‐aided tools to view, insert, modify and manage data related to accidents and traffic monitoring sensors, whereas the latter is developed to automatically analyze the accident data coming from user's collaboration. Because different agencies can survey accident sites, a collaborative environment is necessary – and a Web‐based solution is ideal – for permitting multi‐user access and data insertion. A centralized approach to process the data in real time is described in all its components. Server‐side Structured Query Language functions optimize performance by using dedicated libraries for spatial processing and re‐structuring the attributes associated with elements which are consequently re‐classified for correct color‐scaling. The end‐product is a system that provides a seamless integration of front‐end tools for user collaboration and back‐end tools to update accident risk statistics in real time and provide them to stakeholders. 相似文献
74.
Vít Kárník Dana Procházková Zdeňka Schenková Julius Drimmel Dieter Mayer-Rosa Dragutin Cvijanovic Vladimir Kuk Andelka Miloševič Francesco Giorgetti Reviewer J. Janský 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1978,22(4):411-414
Summary Isoseismal maps of the three strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976 were compiled using the contributions from European countries within the shaken area. The characteristic features of the macroseismic fields are discussed. 相似文献
75.
Giovanni Costa Ivanka Orozova-Stanishkova Giuliano Francesco Panza Irina M. Rotwain 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1996,147(1):119-130
The CN algorithm is utilized here both for the intermediate term earthquake prediction and to validate the seismotectonic model of the Italian territory. Using the results of the analysis, made through the CN algorithm and taking into account the seismotectonic model, three main areas, one for Northern Italy, one for Central Italy and one for Southern Italy, are defined. Two transition areas between the three main areas are delineated. The earthquakes which occurred in these two areas contribute to the precursor phenomena identified by the CN algorithm in each main area. 相似文献
76.
Francesco Serinaldi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(5):695-696
A comprehensive parametric approach to study the probability distribution of rainfall data at scales of hydrologic interest
(e.g. from few minutes up to daily) requires the use of mixed distributions with a discrete part accounting for the occurrence
of rain and a continuous one for the rainfall amount. In particular, when a bivariate vector (X, Y) is considered (e.g. simultaneous observations from two rainfall stations or from two instruments such as radar and rain
gauge), it is necessary to resort to a bivariate mixed model. A quite flexible mixed distribution can be defined by using
a 2-copula and four marginals, obtaining a bivariate copula-based mixed model. Such a distribution is able to correctly describe
the intermittent nature of rainfall and the dependence structure of the variables. Furthermore, without loss of generality
and with gain of parsimony this model can be simplified by some transformations of the marginals. The main goals of this work
are: (1) to empirically explore the behaviour of the parameters of marginal transformations as a function of time scale and
inter-gauge distance, by analysing data from a network of rain gauges; (2) to compare the properties of the regression curves
associated to the copula-based mixed model with those derived from the model simplified by transformations of the marginals.
The results from the investigation of transformations’ parameters are in agreement with the expected theoretical dependence
on inter-gauge distance, and show dependence on time scale. The analysis on the regression curves points out that: (1) a copula-based
mixed model involves regression curves quite close to some non-parametric models; (2) the performance of the parametric regression
decreases in the same cases in which non-parametric regression shows some instability; (3) the copula-based mixed model and
its simplified version show similar behaviour in term of regression for mid-low values of rainfall.
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
77.
Christian Kofler Volkmar Mair Stephan Gruber Maria Cristina Todisco Ian Nettleton Stefan Steger Marc Zebisch Stefan Schneiderbauer Francesco Comiti 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(7):1311-1327
The fronts of two rock glaciers located in South Tyrol (Italian Alps) failed on 13 August 2014, initiating debris flows in their downslope channels. A multimethod approach including climate, meteorological, and ground temperature data analysis, aerial image correlation, as well as geotechnical testing and modeling, led to the reconstruction of the two events. An integrated investigation of static predisposing factors, slowly changing preparatory factors, and potential triggering events shed light on the most likely reasons for such failures. Our results suggest that the occurrence of front destabilization at the two rock glaciers can only partly be explained by the occurrence of heavy rainfall events. Indeed, antecedent hydrological and thermal ground conditions were characterized by a saturated active layer favored by a snow-rich winter and extensive precipitation in late spring and summer. Also, the rising trend of air temperature during spring and summer months since 1950s might explain the concurrent marked displacement of the two rock glaciers. Indeed, geotechnical investigations have provided strong indications that one of the investigated rock glacier fronts was at a marginally stable state prior to 2014. As rainfall events more intense than the one that occurred in August 2014 were previously recorded in the same area without resulting failures at the studied rock glaciers, we propose that both predisposing and preparatory destabilizing factors have played a key role in the 2014 rock glacier front failures. 相似文献
78.
Simone Bizzi Marco Tangi Rafael J. P. Schmitt John Pitlick Hervé Piégay Andrea Francesco Castelletti 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(14):2946-2962
In this article we apply the CASCADE network-scale sediment connectivity model to the Vjosa River in Albania. The Vjosa is one of the last unimpaired braided rivers in Europe and, at the same time, a data scarce environment, which limits our ability to model how this pristine river might respond to future human disturbance. To initialize the model, we use remotely sensed data and modeled hydrology from a regional model. We perform a reach-by-reach optimization of surface grain size distribution (GSD) and bedload transport capacity to ensure equilibrium conditions throughout the network. In order to account for the various sources of uncertainty in the calculation of transport capacity, we performed a global sensitivity analysis. The modeled GSD distributions generated by the sensitivity analysis generally match the six GSDs measured at different locations within the network. The modeled bedload sediment fluxes increase systematically downstream, and annual fluxes at the outlet of the Vjosa are well within an order of magnitude of fluxes derived from previous estimates of the annual suspended sediment load. We then use the modeled sediment fluxes as input to a set of theoretically derived functions that successfully discriminate between multi-thread and single-thread channel patterns. This finding provides additional validation of the model results by showing a clear connection between modeled sediment concentrations and observed river morphology. Finally, we observe that a reduction in sediment flux of about 50% (e.g., due to dams) would likely cause existing braided reaches to shift toward single thread morphology. The proposed method is widely applicable and opens a new avenue for application of network-scale sediment models that aid in the exploration of river stability to changes in water and sediment fluxes. 相似文献
79.
Francesco Serinaldi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(6):1691-1704
The joint occurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events, such as simultaneous precipitation deficit and high temperature, results in the so-called compound events, and has a serious impact on risk assessment and mitigation strategies. Multivariate frequency analysis (MFA) allows a probabilistic quantitative assessment of this risk under uncertainty. Analyzing precipitation and temperature records in the contiguous United States (CONUS), and focusing on the assessment of the degree of rarity of the 2014 California drought, we highlight some critical aspects of MFA that are often overlooked and should be carefully taken into account for a correct interpretation of the results. In particular, we show that an informative exploratory data analysis (EDA) devised to check the basic hypotheses of MFA, a suitable assessment of the sampling uncertainty, and a better understanding of probabilistic concepts can help to avoid misinterpretation of univariate and multivariate return periods, and incoherent conclusions concerning the risk of compound extreme hydroclimatic events. Empirical results show that the dependence between precipitation deficit and temperature across the CONUS can be positive, negative or not significant and does not exhibit significant changes in the last three decades. Focusing on the 2014 California drought as a compound event and based on the data used, the probability of occurrence strongly depends on the selected variables and how they are combined, and is affected by large uncertainty, thus preventing definite conclusions about the actual degree of rarity of this event. 相似文献
80.