How many predictors in species distribution models at the landscape scale? Land use versus LiDAR-derived canopy height

At the local spatial scale, land-use variables are often employed as predictors for ecological niche models (ENMs). Remote sensing can provide additional synoptic information describing vegetation structure in detail. However, there is limited knowledge on which environmental variables and how many of them should be used to calibrate ENMs. We used an information-theoretic approach to compare the performance of ENMs using different sets of predictors: (1) a full set of land-cover variables (seven, obtained from the LGN6 Dutch National Land Use Database); (2) a reduced set of land-cover variables (three); (3) remotely sensed laser data optimized to measure vegetation structure and canopy height (LiDAR, light detection and ranging); and (4) combinations of land cover and LiDAR. ENMs were built for a set of bird species in the Veluwe Natura 2000 site (the Netherlands); for each species, 26–214 records were available from standardized monitoring. Models were built using MaxEnt, and the best performing models were identified using the Akaike’s information criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc). For 78% of the bird species analysed, LiDAR data were included in the best AICc model. The model including LiDAR only was the best performing one in most cases, followed by the model including a reduced set of land-use variables. Models including many land-use variables tended to have limited support. The number of variables included in the best model increased for species with more presence records. For all species with 33 records or less, the best model included LiDAR only. Models with many land-use variables were only selected for species with >150 records. Test area under the curve (AUC) scores ranged between 0.72 and 0.92. Remote sensing data can thus provide regional information useful for modelling at the local and landscape scale, particularly when presence records are limited. ENMs can be optimized through the selection of the number and identity of environmental predictors. Few variables can be sufficient if presence records are limited in number. Synoptic remote sensing data provide a good measure of vegetation structure and may allow a better representation of the available habitat, being extremely useful in this case. Conversely, a larger number of predictors, including land-use variables, can be useful if a large number of presence records are available.     

Long‐term demographic and reproductive trends in Ciona intestinalis sp. A

Ciona intestinalis sp. A (Tunicata, Ascidiacea) is a marine invertebrate with a widespread distribution and high invasive potential, yet little is known about its ecology. Here, the macrodynamics of demographic and reproductive trends were first determined using archive data covering 2002–2012. Species abundance in the central Tyrrhenian Sea (Campania, Italy ‐ NW Mediterranean) displayed Poisson distribution across 2002–2008, massive die‐off in 2009/2010 and population recovery in 2011/2012. We defined the seasonal ranges of sea surface temperature in which sampling size, animal size and reproductive status reached their highest values. In 2003/2004, self and non‐self fertilization appeared to follow reverse trends across the year. The long‐term recording run here on Ciona intestinalis sp. A provides novel insights into its population biology and ecology, and represents a valuable tool for sampling management and research planning.     

Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of urban flooding risk hotspots

Identifying urban flooding risk hotspots is one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk assessment and mitigation. This work employs three GIS-based frameworks for identifying urban flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings and urban corridors. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas and urban corridors [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. A maximum likelihood method (MLE) is employed for estimating the threshold used for identifying the flood-prone areas (the TWI threshold) based on the inundation profiles calculated for various return periods within a given spatial window. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter estimation is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold based on inundation profiles calculated for more than one spatial window. For different statistics of the TWI threshold (e.g. MLE estimate, 16th percentile, 50th percentile), the map of the potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of urban morphology units, identified as residential and urban corridors, in order to delineate the urban hotspots for both UMT. Moreover, information related to population density is integrated by overlaying geo-spatial census datasets in order to estimate the number of people affected by flooding. Differences in exposure characteristics have been assessed for a range of different residential types. As a demonstration, urban flooding risk hotspots are delineated for different percentiles of the TWI value for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.     

Numerical modelling of centrifuge dynamic tests of circular tunnels in dry sand

This paper describes the numerical simulation of two dynamic centrifuge tests on reduced scale models of shallow tunnels in dry sand, carried out using both an advanced bounding surface plasticity constitutive soil model and a simple Mohr–Coulomb elastic-perfectly plastic model with embedded nonlinear and hysteretic behaviour. The predictive capabilities of the two constitutive models are assessed by comparing numerical predictions and experimental data in terms of accelerations at several positions in the model, and bending moment and hoop forces in the lining. Computed and recorded accelerations match well, and a quite good agreement is achieved also in terms of dynamic bending moments in the lining, while numerical and experimental values of the hoop force differ significantly with one another. The influence of the contact assumption between the tunnel and the soil is investigated by comparing the experimental data and the numerical results obtained with different interface conditions with the analytical solutions. The overall performance of the two models is very similar indicating that at least for dry sand, where shear-volumetric coupling is less relevant, even a simple model can provide an adequate representation of soil behaviour under dynamic conditions.     

A hydrogeological conceptual model of the Suio hydrothermal area (central Italy)

A hydrogeological conceptual model has been developed that describes the hydrothermal system of Suio Terme (central Italy). The studied area is located along the peri-Tyrrhenian zone of the central Apennines, between the Mesozoic and Cenozoic carbonate platform sequences of the Aurunci Mountains and the volcanic sequences of the Roccamonfina. A multi-disciplinary approach was followed, using new hydrogeological surveys, the interpretation of stratigraphic logs of boreholes and water wells, and geophysical data—seismic sections, shear-wave velocity (Vs) crustal model and gravimetric model. The collected information allowed for construction of a conceptual hydrogeological model and characterization of the hydrothermal system. The Suio hydrothermal system is strongly influenced by the Eastern Aurunci hydrostructure. Along the southeastern side, the top of the hydrostructure sinks to ?1,000 m relative to sea level via a series of normal faults which give origin to the Garigliano graben. Geological and hydrogeological data strongly suggest the propagation and mixing of hot fluids, with cold waters coming from the shallow karst circuit. The aquitard distribution, the normal tectonic displacements and the fracturing of the karst hydrostructure strongly influence the hydrothermal basin. Carbon dioxide and other gasses play a key role in the whole circuit, facilitating the development of the hydrothermal system. The current level of knowledge suggests that the origin of the Suio hydrothermalism is the result of interaction between the carbonate reservoir of the Eastern Aurunci Mountains and the hot and deep crust of this peri-Tyrrhenian sector, where the Roccamonfina volcano represents the shallowest expression.     

The External Tanger Unit (Intrarif sub-Domain,External Rifian Zones,Morocco): an interdisciplinary study

The External Tanger Unit represents one of the most complete Cretaceous-Miocene successions in the central areas of the Internal Intrarif sub-Domain (External Rif Zones, Morocco). An interdisciplinary study has been carried out to propose a new characterization of this unit which would allow a better comprehension of the confused and complex relationships among different units of the same sub-domain. The results achieved can be summarized as follows: (1) redefinition of the stratigraphic (litho-, bio-, and chrono-) record and introduction of a new, informal lithostratigraphic terminology; (2) recognition of two main depositional sequences (lower-middle Eocene p.p. and lower Oligocene p.p.-lower Miocene p.p.) separated by extended gaps (latest Cretaceous-early Eocene p.p. and middle Eocene p.p.-early Oligocene p.p.); (3) reconstruction of the evolution of the sedimentary realm, and of the relationships between tectonics and sedimentation; and (4) comparison between the upper Cretaceous-Miocene stratigraphic record and tectonic events of the Intrarif, which is located in the western external portion of the Maghrebian Flysch Basin, and the equivalent sedimentary record of the eastern portion of this basin in the Tunisian Tell. More in general, our results allowed (i) a first reconstruction of the Cretaceous-Miocene main tectono-sedimentary events; (ii) a more detailed location of the sedimentary suite in the external African Margin in the context of a wider palaeogeographic framework; and (iii) the definition of the main stages of the geological evolution of the area.