Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model

Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socio-economic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams.     

Identifying subsoil sediment sources with carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios

Increased sediment loads from accelerated catchment erosion significantly degrade waterways worldwide. In the South East Queensland region of Australia, sediment loads are degrading Moreton Bay, a Ramsar listed wetland of international significance. In this region, like most parts of coastal Australia, sediment is predominantly derived from gully and channel bank erosion processes. A novel approach is presented that uses carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios and elemental composition to discriminate between these often indistinguishable subsoil sediment sources. The conservativeness of these sediment properties is first tested by examining the effect of particle size separation (testing for consistency during transport) and the effect of sampling at different times (testing for temporal source consistency). The discrimination potential of these sediment properties is then assessed with the conservative properties, based on the particle size and temporal analyses, modelled to determine sediment provenance in three catchments. Nitrogen sediment properties were found to have significant particle size enrichment and high temporal variance indicative of non‐conservative behaviour. Conversely, carbon stable isotopes had very limited particle size and temporal variability highlighting their suitability for sediment tracing. Channel erosion was modelled to be a significant source of sediment (μ 51%, σ 9%) contrasting desktop modelling research that estimated gully erosion is the predominant sediment source. To limit the supply of sediment to Moreton Bay, channel bank and gully erosion must both be targeted by sediment management programs. By distinguishing between subsoil sediment sources, this approach has the potential to enhance the management of sediment loads degrading waterways worldwide. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A re-analysis of the 1971 Beta Scorpii occultation by Jupiter: study of temperature fluctuations and detection of wave activity

Data from the 13 May 1971 β Scorpii occultation by the southern polar region of Jupiter (Vapillon et al., 1973, Astron. Astrophys. 29, 135-149) are re-analyzed with current methods. We correct the previous results for an inacurrate background estimation and calculate new temperature profiles, that are now consistent with the results of other observers of this occultation, as well as with the current knowledge of the jovian atmosphere. The characteristics of the profiles of temperature gradient and the spectral behavior of the temperature fluctuations are found to be similar to the results of previous investigations of planetary atmospheres and in agreement with the presence of atmospheric propagating gravity waves in the jovian atmosphere. We use a wavelet analysis of the temperature profiles to identify the dominant modes of wave activity and compare the reconstructed temperature fluctuations to model-generated gravity waves.     

Numerically based proposals for the stiffness and strength of masonry infills with openings in reinforced concrete frames

Aimed at investigating the effect of openings on the in‐plane behaviour of masonry infills in reinforced concrete frames, a parametric study is presented based on model calibration via experimental tests. Two types of openings are investigated: central window openings and different combinations of door and window openings based on the typologies of southern European countries. First, a finite element model of the structure is made using the DIANA software program. Then, after calibration with experimental results, a parametric analysis is carried out to investigate the effect of the presence and location of the different types of openings on the in‐plane behaviour of the infilled frame. Finally, different equations for predicting the initial stiffness and lateral strength of infilled frames with any types of openings were obtained. An α factor related to the geometry of the piers between openings is proposed to take into account the location of the openings in the developed equations. Subsequently, the masonry infill panel is replaced by a diagonal strut. An empirical equation is also proposed for the width of an equivalent strut to replace a masonry infill panel with openings in such a way that they possess the same initial stiffness. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Apports de la méthode sismique réflexion haute résolution à l'identification des structures profondes des formations tertiaires en Médoc (Gironde,France) : implications hydrogéologiques

Near Bordeaux (France), the Oligocene aquifer is a potential target for drinking water supply. A high-resolution seismic campaign and several exploration wells helped to clarify the geometry of this formation and, as a consequence, the Medoc Tertiary aquifers. The major information extracted from these new data is the existence of a soft deformation inducing two different deposit areas, showing different hydrogeological characteristics (thickness, type, hydraulic properties, etc.). The presence of an erosional gap area affecting the Oligocene formations lead us to propose a new image of groundwater flow in the area, in the context of a predicted intensive exploitation of this resource. To cite this article: F. Larroque, A. Dupuy, C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Developing the ability to model acid-rock interactions and mineral dissolution during the RMA stimulation test performed at the Soultz-sous-Forêts EGS site,France

The Soultz Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) reservoir's response to chemical stimulation is assessed by numerical simulation of coupled thermo-hydraulic-chemical processes. To assess chemical interactions between host rocks and a mixture of HCl and HF as well as its potential effects on the Soultz EGS reservoir, new modelling efforts using the FRACHEM code have been initiated. This article presents the model calibration and results. Simulations consider realistic conditions with available data sets from the EGS system at Soultz. Results indicate that the predicted amount of fracture sealing minerals dissolved by injection of a mixture of acids Regular Mud Acid (RMA) was consistent with the estimated amount from the test performed on GPK4 well at Soultz EGS site. Consequently reservoir porosity and permeability can be enhanced especially near the injection well by acidizing treatment.     

The investigation of flood risk perception as a quantitative analysis from socio-demographic perspective

The priority of flood management planning is physical victimization and focuses on taking structural measures. Although this approach is an accurate approach, more information is needed in implementing efficient precautionary and planning decisions. It is an indisputable fact that the existence of nothing that is not sustainable in nature cannot continue. Hence, it is necessary to implement a planning decision suitable for the structure of the population living in the region so that the continuity of the policies to be carried out against natural hazards of hydrometeorological origin such as a flood is ensured. How the socio-demographic structures affect the flood risk perception of 245 people living in the city center of Bayburt is examined in this study. It is the first research conducted for the province of Bayburt for this perspective. The participants were asked to fill a questionnaire containing 24 items and consisting of 2 sections. T test and one-way ANOVA (one-way analysis of variance) statistical methods were used to ascertain the difference between the responses of the participants to the questionnaire, based on their demographic structure. As the result of the study, significant differences were observed between the expressions depicting flood risk perception and the participant's age, income levels and educational background. In addition, it has been noted that there is a positive relationship between education and income levels and flood risk perception.

     

Hydrological response characteristics of Mediterranean catchments at different time scales: a meta-analysis

ABSTRACT

This work examines 140 hydrological studies conducted in the Mediterranean region. It identifies key characteristics of the hydrological responses of Mediterranean catchments at various time scales and compares different methods and modelling approaches used for individual-catchment studies. The study area is divided into the northwestern (NWM), eastern (EM) and southern (SM) Mediterranean. The analysis indicates regional discrepancies in which the NWM shows the most extreme rainfall regime. A tendency for reduced water resources driven by both anthropogenic and climatic pressures and a more extreme rainfall regime are also noticeable. Catchments show very heterogeneous responses over time and space, resulting in limitations in hydrological modelling and large uncertainties in predictions. However, few models have been developed to address these issues. Additional studies are necessary to improve the knowledge of Mediterranean hydrological features and to account for regional specificities.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor A. Efstratiadis