Reasoning about climate uncertainty

This paper argues that the IPCC has oversimplified the issue of uncertainty in its Assessment Reports, which can lead to misleading overconfidence. A concerted effort by the IPCC is needed to identify better ways of framing the climate change problem, explore and characterize uncertainty, reason about uncertainty in the context of evidence-based logical hierarchies, and eliminate bias from the consensus building process itself.     

Effects of salinity downshock on dimethylsulfide production

During time-series observations in Sagami Bay, Japan, the concentration of dissolved dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP_d), a precursor of dimethylsulfide (DMS), was negatively correlated with salinity. In the laboratory, low-salinity shock reduced DMS production rates of the natural bacterial community and induced rapid DMSP release from a dinophyte, Heterocapsa triquetra, suggesting that low-salinity shock reduced DMSP_d consumption but enhanced DMSP_d production, which agrees with the negative correlation between DMSP_d and salinity observed in Sagami bay. In addition, low-salinity shock did not affect DMSP lyase activity of H. triquetra. Low-salinity shock would increase the contribution from algae in DMS production, leading to an increase in potential DMS productivity in the environment.     

Autochthonous inheritance of zircon through Cretaceous partial melting of Carboniferous plutons: the Arthur River Complex,Fiordland, New Zealand

TIMS and SHRIMP U–Pb analyses of zircons from Milford Orthogneiss metadiorite (P = 1–1.4 GPa; T ≥ 750°C) of the Arthur River Complex of northern Fiordland reveal a bimodal age pattern. Zircons are predominantly either Paleozoic (357.0 ± 4.2 Ma) and prismatic with oscillatory zoning, or Cretaceous (133.9 ± 1.8 Ma) and ovoid with sector or patchy zoning. The younger age component is not observed overgrowing older grains. Most grains of both ages are overgrown by younger Cretaceous (~120 Ma) metamorphic zircon with very low U and Th/U (0.01). We interpret the bimodal ages as indicating initial igneous emplacement and crystallisation of a dioritic protolith pluton at ~357 Ma, followed by Early Cretaceous granulite-facies metamorphism at ~134 Ma, during which a significant fraction (~60%) of the zircon grains dissolved, and subsequently reprecipitated, effectively in situ, in partial melt pockets. The remaining ~40% of original Paleozoic grains were apparently not in contact with the partial melt, remained intact, and show only slight degrees of Pb loss. Sector zoning of the Cretaceous grains discounts their origin by solid state recrystallisation of Paleozoic grains. The alternative explanation—that the Paleozoic component represents a 40% inherited component in an Early Cretaceous transgressive dioritic magma—is considered less likely given the relatively high solubility of zircon in magma of this composition, the absence of 134 Ma overgrowths, the single discrete age of the older component, equivalent time-integrated ¹⁷⁷Hf/¹⁷⁶Hf compositions of both age groups, and the absence of the Cambrian-Proterozoic detrital zircon that dominates regional Cambro-Ordovician metasedimentary populations. Similar bimodal Carboniferous-Early Cretaceous age distributions are characteristic of the wider Arthur River Complex; 8 of 12 previously dated dioritic samples have a Paleozoic component averaging 51%. Furthermore, the age and chemical suite affinity of these and several more felsic rocks can be matched with those of the relatively unmetamorphosed Carboniferous plutonic terrane along the strike of the Mesozoic margin in southern Fiordland, also supporting the in situ derivation of the Carboniferous “inherited” component.     

Development and verification of the comprehensive model for physical properties of hydrate sediment

Natural gas hydrate is widely distributed all over the world and may be a potential resource in the near future, whereas hydrate dissociation during the development affects wellbore stability and drilling safety. However, the present modeling of hydrate reservoir parameters ignored the influence of effective stress and only considered the hydrate saturation. In this paper, a series of stress sensitivity experiments for the unconsolidated sandstone were carried out, and the influence of mean effective stress on physical parameters was obtained; a comprehensive model for the physical parameters of hydrate reservoir was developed subsequently. With the help of ABAQUS finite element software, the established comprehensive model was verified by the use of the wellbore stability numerical model of hydrate reservoir. The verification results show that ignoring the effect of mean effective stress on the parameters of hydrate formation aggravates the invasion of drilling fluid into the hydrate formation. Besides, ignoring the stress sensitivity of reservoir physical parameters will underestimate the wellbore instability during hydrate drilling, which will be a threat to the safety of gas hydrate drilling. At the end of the drilling operation, the maximum plastic strain of the model for considering and not considering stress sensitivity was 0.0145 and 0.0138, respectively. Therefore, the established comprehensive model will provide a theoretical support for accurately predicting the engineering geological disasters in hydrate development process.     

基于ＷＡＰ指数的长江流域及其以南地区干旱气候特征分析

根据长江流域及其以南地区１９４站１９５８—２００７年共５０ａ的逐日降水资料,利用ＷＡＰ指数对该区域干旱的主要特征进行综合分析．对各季节ＷＡＰ指数的多年平均分布特征、ＷＡＰ指数的长期变化趋势、区域平均的ＷＡＰ指数变化特征等空间分布特征进行分析,并对基于ＷＡＰ指数的干旱开始时间空间分布特征和干旱持续时间的变化特征进行分析．结果表明：通过ＷＡＰ指数表征的降水量具有明显的地域性差异和季节性差异;该区域夏冬季节降水量有增大趋势,不易发生持续干旱情况,而春秋季节降水量的长期趋势明显减少;该区域春秋 两个季节干旱开始和持续的时间存在显著季节性差异及南北和东西地域性的显著差异．     

Atmospheric Correction Over Coastal Turbid Waters of Bay of Bengal Using OCEANSAT-I Ocean Colour Monitor (OCM) Data

Space-borne ocean-colour remote sensor-detected radiance is heavily contaminated by solar radiation backscattered by the atmospheric air molecules and aerosols. Hence, the first step in ocean-colour data processing is the removal of this atmospheric contribution from the sensor-detected radiance to enable detection of optically active oceanic constituents e.g. chlorophyll-a, suspended sediment etc. In standard atmospheric correction procedure for OCEANSAT-1 Ocean Colour Monitor (OCM) data, NIR bands centered at 765 and 865 nm wavelengths were used for aerosol characterization. Due to high absorption by water molecules, ocean surface in these two wavelengths acts as dark background, therefore, sensor detected radiance can be assumed to have major contribution from atmospheric scattering. For coastal turbid waters this assumption of dark surface fails due to the presence of highly scattering sediments which causes sufficient water-leaving radiance in NIR bands and lead to over-estimation of aerosol radiance resulting in negative water leaving radiance for λ < 700 nm. In the present study, for the turbid coastal waters in the northern Bay of Bengal, the concept of spatial homogeneity of aerosol and water leaving reflectance has been applied to perform atmospheric correction of OCAEANSAT-1 OCM data. The results of the turbid water atmospheric correction have also been validated using in-situ measured water-leaving radiance. Comparison of satellite derived water-leaving radiance for five coastal stations with in-situ measured radiance spectra, indicates an improvement over the standard atmospheric correction algorithm giving physically realistic and positive values. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the in-situ measured and satellite derived water leaving radiance for wavelengths 412 nm, 443 nm, 490 nm, 512 nm and 555 nm was found to be 1.11, 0.718, 0.575, 0.611 and 0.651%, respectively, using standard atmospheric correction procedure. By the use of spatial homogeneity concept, this error was reduced to 0.125, 0.173, 0.176, 0.225, and 0.290 and the correlation coefficient arrived at 0.945, which is an improvement over the standard atmospheric correction procedure.     

基于Argo网格产品资料的台湾以东海域海温场结构与温跃层特征分析

基于2005年1月~2009年12月中国Argo实时数据中心发布的Argo网格化产品,对台湾以东海域的表层和深层海温进行了分析,证实了日本南部海域存在北太平洋副热带模态水,提出暖水团概念,分析了其成因和垂直结构,并利用SODA(Simple Ocean Data Assimilation)数据和WOA09(World Ocean Atlas 2005)数据对暖水团进行验证。揭示出台湾以东海域各层次温度大面分布大体呈3个模态特征,并依此将台湾以东海域分为热带、副热带和温带三个海区;对各海域截取断面图,对其温跃层进行分析,归纳出永久性温跃层和季节性温跃层在垂直方向上的分布和季节性变化,并对其成因进行了讨论。     

日本囊对虾Marsupenaeus japonicus)组织蛋白酶D基因克隆及表达分析

组织蛋白酶D是溶酶体天冬氨酸蛋白酶家族的主要成员,广泛参与动物机体细胞内蛋白质的降解过程,对维持细胞稳态和正常代谢具有重要的作用。为研究组织蛋白酶D在甲壳动物非特异性免疫和幼体发育过程中的作用,本研究采用RACE技术首次克隆得到日本囊对虾组织蛋白酶D基因cDNA序列,命名为MjCatD,其中开放阅读框长为1161 bp,编码386个氨基酸残基。序列分析和同源建模显示该基因编码的蛋白含有保守的N-糖基化位点、天冬氨酸蛋白酶签名序列、酶活化位点和非消化性组织蛋白酶D的特征序列,并且呈保守的双叶形结构。同源性比较和系统进化分析发现,MjCatD与斑节对虾、美洲螯龙虾和脊尾白虾相似性较高,并且与它们紧密聚为一支。实时荧光定量PCR结果显示,MjCatD基因在日本囊对虾多个组织中均有表达,其中肝胰腺中表达量最高。在白斑综合征病毒(white spot syndrome virus, WSSV)感染后3～24 h日本囊对虾肝胰腺中MjCatD的表达量逐渐下降,而在48 h急剧上调至最高表达量并且与对照组差异极显著(P<0.01)。此外,MjCatD基因在幼体发育不同阶段中也表现出明显的变化趋势。以上研究表明,MjCatD基因可能参与日本囊对虾先天免疫反应和幼体发育过程。     

脊尾白虾(Exopalaemon carinicauda)维甲酸X受体基因克隆及其在温盐胁迫和蜕皮周期中的表达分析

为了明确脊尾白虾维甲酸X受体基因在环境胁迫和蜕皮周期中的作用,本研究通过RACE技术克隆了脊尾白虾(Exopalaemon carinicauda)维甲酸X受体c DNA全长,命名为Ec RXR基因,该c DNA序列全长为1323 bp,开放阅读框(ORF)为855 bp,编码一个284个氨基酸组成的蛋白质,分子量为30.918 k Da,理论等电点为PI为6.788;Ec RXR基因推导氨基酸序列经Blastp在线比对分析显示,Ec RXR与已知甲壳动物RXR的同源性为71%—90%;系统进化树分析结果显示,脊尾白虾Ec RXR的氨基酸序列与日本沼虾RXR的氨基酸序列聚为一支。荧光定量RT-PCR分析表明,Ec RXR基因在各组织中均有表达,而在眼柄相对表达量较高,血淋巴中最低。Ec RXR基因在蜕皮周期中的表达规律表明,Ec RXR基因表达在不同蜕皮时期存在明显变化,在眼柄、肝胰腺、胃和肠中整体呈现上升趋势,在鳃中呈现先下降后上升的趋势,在表皮中呈现逐渐降低的趋势。Ec RXR基因在温度、盐度胁迫过程中的表达规律分析结果发现,温度、盐度胁迫均可显著改变Ec RXR基因在鳃和肝胰腺中的表达模式,温度胁迫下Ec RXR基因在鳃中呈先上升后下降的表达趋势,肝胰腺中整体呈先上升后下降再上升再下降的表达趋势;盐度对鳃和肝胰腺的调控模式相同,均呈先升高后下降的变化趋势。本研究结果表明Ec RXR基因在脊尾白虾蜕皮发育、酶活性调控及渗透压调节中发挥重要作用,为深入研究甲壳动物维甲酸X受体基因的功能提供了重要的基础信息。     

Temporal variations in the current structure and volume transport of the Coastal Oyashio revealed by direct current measurement

Direct current measurements by a shipboard and bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler and concurrent hydrographic observations with a CTD were conducted off southeastern Hokkaido, Japan, between January and May 2005 to reveal temporal variations in the current structure and volume transport of the Coastal Oyashio (CO). The CO, which has a baroclinic jet structure with southwestward speeds exceeding 90 cm s^?1 and a width of 7–8 km, was associated with a surface-to-bottom density front and was formed on the offshore side of the shelf break. The volume transport of CO (T _CO) was estimated by integrating the fluxes of lower-density water that was trapped against the coast along the density front represented by the 26.2 σ _θ isopycnal line. This transport decreased monotonously from 0.79 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s^?1) in January to 0.21 Sv in March and subsequently to 0.12 Sv in May, possibly due to the decay of the East Sakhalin Current Water in the Okhotsk Sea. Accompanied by a decrease in T _CO, the location of the jet structure associated with the density front moved toward the coast while the maximum speed of the jet decreased and the tilt of the front became more horizontal. Consequently, more saline offshore Oyashio water flowed into the deep part of the shelf area, and the current structure altered from relatively barotropic in winter to baroclinic in spring. This study is the first to estimate the observed volume transport of the CO from direct current measurements.