A quantitative determination of the AGN content in local ULIRGs through L-band spectroscopy

We present a quantitative estimate of the relative active galactic nucleus (AGN)/starburst content in a sample of 59 nearby  ( z < 0.15)  infrared bright ultraluminous infrared galaxies (ULIRGs) taken from the 1-Jy sample, based on infrared L -band (3–4 μm) spectra. By using diagnostic diagrams and a simple deconvolution model, we show that at least 60 per cent of local ULIRGs contain an active nucleus, but the AGN contribution to the bolometric luminosity is relevant only in  ∼15–20  per cent of the sources. Overall, ULIRGs appear to be powered by the starburst process, responsible for >85 per cent of the observed infrared luminosity. The subsample of sources optically classified as low-ionization nuclear emission-line regions (LINERs; 31 objects) shows a similar AGN/starburst distribution as the whole sample, indicating a composite nature for this class of objects. We also show that a few ULIRGs, optically classified as starbursts, have L -band spectral features suggesting the presence of a buried AGN.     

Comparing predictive capability of statistical and deterministic methods for landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study in the northern Apennines (Reggio Emilia Province, Italy)

Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km² in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.     

Seismic tomography from local crustal earthquakes beneath eastern Rif Mountains of Morocco

We applied a tomographic method to image an aseismic strike–slip fault in North Morocco and found that the occurrence of earthquakes is not only controlled by the state of tectonic stress but also by material heterogeneity in the crust. We have constructed an integrated model of seismic, electric, magnetic and heat flow properties across northeastern Morocco primarily based on a tomography inversion of local earthquake arrival times. The seismic images obtained show a pronounced low-velocity zone at 5 km depth parallels to the Nekor fault, coinciding with an anomalously high conductive and low gravity structure, which is interpreted as a fault gouge zone and/or a fluid-filled subsurface rock matrix. Below 10 km depth, a weak positive velocity zone indicates that the fault gouge is stable. The seismicity and the seismic velocity results for the Al-Hoceimas region show that the concentrations of earthquakes are confined in the high velocity area. This anomaly is interpreted to be a brittle and competent layer of the upper crust that sustains seismogenic stress. On the eastern coast line of Morocco, we infer that a high density, high velocity body exists in the shallowest layers of the upper crust, probably formed by Miocene volcanic rocks.     

A unified framework for earthquake risk assessment of transportation networks and gross regional product

Natural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have had serious impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 emphasized the importance of preparedness and awareness to reduce social impacts. In addition to that, earthquake damaged businesses dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Generating scenario earthquakes in a proper way is important to suitably assess the risk in bridge networks and social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. Seismic hazard is traditionally assessed by means of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Although PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location it is not suitable for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes can overcome this problem; they represent the actual distribution of ground shaking for a spatially distributed system while being hazard consistent. In this work a methodology to generate scenario earthquakes has been proposed using a novel approach with the aim of being the basic step for investigating possible earthquake consequences in seismic areas and contributing to reduce losses.     

Conceptually-based shot noise modeling of streamflows at short time interval

A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.     

Reduction of uranium(VI) under sulfate-reducing conditions in the presence of Fe(III)-(hydr)oxides

Hexavalent uranium [U(VI)] dissolved in a modified lactate-C medium was treated under anoxic conditions with a mixture of an Fe(III)-(hydr)oxide mineral (hematite, goethite, or ferrihydrite) and quartz. The mass of Fe(III)-(hydr)oxide mineral was varied to give equivalent Fe(III)-mineral surface areas. After equilibration, the U(VI)-mineral suspensions were inoculated with sulfate-reducing bacteria, Desulfovibrio desulfuricans G20. Inoculation of the suspensions containing sulfate-limited medium yielded significant G20 growth, along with concomitant reduction of sulfate and U(VI) from solution. With lactate-limited medium, however, some of the uranium that had been removed from solution was resolubilized in the hematite treatments and, to a lesser extent, in the goethite treatments, once the lactate was depleted. No resolubilization was observed in the lactate-limited ferrihydrite treatment even after a prolonged incubation of 4 months. Uranium resolubilization was attributed to reoxidation of the uraninite by Fe(III) present in the (hydr)oxide phases. Analysis by U L₃-edge XANES spectroscopy of mineral specimens sampled at the end of the experiments yielded spectra similar to that of uraninite, but having distinct features, notably a much more intense and slightly broader white line consistent with precipitation of nanometer-sized particles. The XANES spectra thus provided strong evidence for SRB-promoted removal of U(VI) from solution by reductive precipitation of uraninite. Consequently, our results suggest that SRB mediate reduction of soluble U(VI) to an insoluble U(IV) oxide, so long as a suitable electron donor is available. Depletion of the electron donor may result in partial reoxidation of the U(IV) to soluble U(VI) species when the surfaces of crystalline Fe(III)-(hydr)oxides are incompletely reduced.     

Exact density–potential pairs from complex-shifted axisymmetric systems

In a previous paper, the complex-shift method has been applied to self-gravitating spherical systems, producing new analytical axisymmetric density–potential pairs. We now extend the treatment to the Miyamoto–Nagai disc and the Binney logarithmic halo, and we study the resulting axisymmetric and triaxial analytical density–potential pairs; we also show how to obtain the surface density of shifted systems from the complex shift of the surface density of the parent model. In particular, the systems obtained from Miyamoto–Nagai discs can be used to describe disc galaxies with a peanut-shaped bulge or with a central triaxial bar, depending on the direction of the shift vector. By using a constructive method that can be applied to generic axisymmetric systems, we finally show that the Miyamoto–Nagai and the Satoh discs, and the Binney logarithmic halo cannot be obtained from the complex shift of any spherical parent distribution. As a by-product of this study, we also found two new generating functions in closed form for even and odd Legendre polynomials, respectively.     

Simulating a seismic series using geostatistical and stochastic methods: application to the seismic series in the Alborán Sea (1997 June 24–?)

Seismic series can be taken as examples of correlated unstationary sets of time-stochastic sequences. We investigate the possibility of estimating what is most probable to occur subsequently, if we know the events that have occurred up to a given moment.
The stochastic methods can be used with data of the seismic series, irrespective of their genesis and origin. Using three stochastic methods, namely (1) simulating the likelihood of occurrence by conditional geostatistical simulation; (2) developing a stochastic analysis of the energy release by means of energy packages; and (3) calculating the occurrence time of the most probable next earthquake, we were able to simulate the occurrence of earthquakes that took place during the Alborán Sea seismic series (1997–1998).
We conclude that it is possible to set limits on the time of occurrence and energy release, understood as the magnitude of the most probable earthquake, during the development of a seismic sequence and prior to the actual occurrence of the earthquake.     

Large scale climate and rainfall seasonality in a Mediterranean Area: Insights from a non‐homogeneous Markov model applied to the Agro‐Pontino plain

In the context of climate change and variability, there is considerable interest in how large scale climate indicators influence regional precipitation occurrence and its seasonality. Seasonal and longer climate projections from coupled ocean–atmosphere models need to be downscaled to regional levels for hydrologic applications, and the identification of appropriate state variables from such models that can best inform this process is also of direct interest. Here, a Non‐Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) for downscaling daily rainfall is developed for the Agro‐Pontino Plain, a coastal reclamation region very vulnerable to changes of hydrological cycle. The NHMM, through a set of atmospheric predictors, provides the link between large scale meteorological features and local rainfall patterns. Atmospheric data from the NCEP/NCAR archive and 56‐years record (1951–2004) of daily rainfall measurements from 7 stations in Agro‐Pontino Plain are analyzed. A number of validation tests are carried out, in order to: 1) identify the best set of atmospheric predictors to model local rainfall; 2) evaluate the model performance to capture realistically relevant rainfall attributes as the inter‐annual and seasonal variability, as well as average and extreme rainfall patterns. Validation tests show that the best set of atmospheric predictors are the following: mean sea level pressure, temperature at 1000 hPa, meridional and zonal wind at 850 hPa and precipitable water, from 20°N to 80°N of latitude and from 80°W to 60°E of longitude. Furthermore, the validation tests show that the rainfall attributes are simulated realistically and accurately. The capability of the NHMM to be used as a forecasting tool to quantify changes of rainfall patterns forced by alteration of atmospheric circulation under climate change and variability scenarios is discussed.     

The Ross orogeny of the transantarctic mountains: a northern Victoria Land perspective

Northern Victoria Land (Antarctica) is made up of three terranes of Cambrian–Ordovician rocks: the Wilson (WT), Bowers (BT) and Robertson Bay terranes (RBT). The WT comprises a low- to high-grade metasedimentary sequence intruded by calc-alkaline plutons with magmatic arc affinity; the BT is composed of low-grade metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks usually interpreted as an intra-oceanic arc; the RBT is a very low-grade flysch-like sequence. Terrane juxtaposition has traditionally been attributed to accretion during the Cambro-ordovician Ross orogeny. We propose a new model in which the WT, BT and RBT are interpreted as an arc/back-arc/trench system, developed in the context of a SW-dipping subduction zone. The subducting plate carried a continent originally located outboard of the turbidite fan of the RBT. Collision between this continent and the East Antarctic craton caused partial subduction of the intervening back-arc basin and, ultimately, the end of Ross-orogenic subduction. The turbidite fan of the RBT originally sedimented above the trench and on the subducting oceanic plate; due to collision it was thrusted on the continent, that constitutes, at least in part, the present basement of the RBT turbidite. The eastern portions of this continental mass were later dissected by the tensile tectonics related to the opening of the of the Southern Ocean.