China’s national carbon emissions trading scheme: lessons from the pilot emission trading schemes,academic literature,and known policy details

Upon completion, China’s national emissions trading scheme (C-ETS) will be the largest carbon market in the world. Recent research has evaluated China’s seven pilot ETSs launched from 2013 on, and academic literature on design aspects of the C-ETS abounds. Yet little is known about the specific details of the upcoming C-ETS. This article combines currently understood details of China’s national carbon market with lessons learned in the pilot schemes as well as from the academic literature. Our review follows the taxonomy of Emissions Trading in Practice: A Handbook on Design and Implementation (Partnership for Market Readiness & International Carbon Action Partnership. (2016). Retrieved from www.worldbank.org): The 10 categories are: scope, cap, distribution of allowances, use of offsets, temporal flexibility, price predictability, compliance and oversight, stakeholder engagement and capacity building, linking, implementation and improvements.

Key policy insights

• Accurate emissions data is paramount for both design and implementation, and its availability dictates the scope of the C-ETS.

• The stakeholder consultative process is critical for effective design, and China is able to build on its extensive experience through the pilot ETSs.

• Current policies and positions on intensity targets and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits constrain the market design of the C-ETS.

• Most critical is the nature of the cap. The currently discussed rate-based cap with ex post adjustment is risky. Instead, an absolute, mass-based emissions cap coupled with the conditional use of permits would allow China to maintain flexibility in the carbon market while ensuring a limit on CO₂ emissions.

     

碳市场顶层设计路线图

中国正面临着低碳减排和保持经济增速的双重挑战。为利用碳排放权交易机制以最低的社会成本实现减排目标,我国自2013年起开始建设碳排放权交易试点,并于2017年12月起宣布正式启动全国碳市场。然而碳市场的顶层设计不可一蹴而就,需要在我国宏观经济改革的大背景下分阶段逐步推进。短期（2020年前）碳市场建设重在强化产权制度建设,完善市场交易基础。中期（2021—2030年）碳市场建设要形成活跃的市场氛围,充分降低我国的温室气体达峰成本。长期（2031—2050年）碳市场建设要形成稳定上升的碳价趋势,为我国的低碳转型提供长期动力。     

Role of the Nocturnal Low-level Jet in the Formation of the Morning Precipitation Peak over the Dabie Mountains

The diurnal variation of precipitation over the Dabie Mountains(DBM) in eastern China during the 2013 mei-yu season is investigated with forecasts of a regional convection-permitting model. Simulated precipitation is verified against surface rain-gauge observations. The observed morning precipitation peak on the windward(relative to the prevailing synoptic-scale wind) side of the DBM is reproduced with good spatial and temporal accuracy. The interaction between the DBM and a nocturnal boundary layer low-level jet(BLJ) due to the inertial oscillation mechanism is shown to be responsible for this precipitation peak. The BLJ is aligned with the lower-level southwesterly synoptic-scale flow that carries abundant moisture.The BLJ core is established at around 0200 LST upwind of the mountains. It moves towards the DBM and reaches maximum intensity at about 70 km ahead of the mountains. When the BLJ impinges upon the windward side of the DBM in the early morning, mechanical lifting of moist air leads to condensation and subsequent precipitation.     

Main Detrainment Height of Deep Convection Systems over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Southern Slope

Deep convection systems (DCSs) can rapidly lift water vapor and other pollutants from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The main detrainment height determines the level to which the air parcel is lifted. We analyzed the main detrainment height over the Tibetan Plateau and its southern slope based on the CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar 2B_GEOPROF dataset and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Level 2 cloud ice product onboard the A-train constellation of Earth-observing satellites. It was found that the DCSs over the Tibetan Plateau and its southern slope have a higher main detrainment height (about 10?16 km) than other regions in the same latitude. The mean main detrainment heights are 12.9 and 13.3 km over the Tibetan Plateau and its southern slope, respectively. The cloud ice water path decreases by 16.8% after excluding the influences of DCSs, and the height with the maximum increase in cloud ice water content is located at 178 hPa (about 13 km). The main detrainment height and outflow horizontal range are higher and larger over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau, the west of the southern slope, and the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau than that over the northwestern Tibetan Plateau. The main detrainment height and outflow horizontal range are lower and broader at nighttime than during daytime.     

一次“晴天霹雳”致死事件分析

对2017年广州从化地区一次"晴朗"天气下的闪电致死事件进行调查分析发现,这次事件是闪电首先击中一棵大树,然后击中附近人员头顶致死。根据目击者描述的时间和位置,利用闪电低频电场变化探测阵列的定位数据和广东电力等系统的雷电定位数据,结合广州番禺雷达观测资料,确定此事件是由一次含有7次回击的地闪过程的首次回击造成,其电流峰值强度为-30.9 kA。闪电起始于13.0 km高度的云内,经约600 ms云内发展过程后闪电通道从云体延伸出来,云砧区边缘（0 dBz）到回击点水平距离约300 m,降水区边缘（18 dBz）到回击点水平距离约1.8 km。使用雷击现场等效电路模型,计算旁络闪击空气击穿场强可击穿空气与人头部连接为通路,根据电路分流原理,如果雷电流击中13 m高的大树后流经到"跳点"（树干上方1/4）处后,则有13.2 kA雷电流直接闪击到受害者身上,同时还承受了78.3 kV跨步电压伤害,而距离雷击点10 m远的目击者仅承受1.3 kV跨步电压。      

杭锦旗北部牧草引种试验

利用在内蒙古杭锦旗北部进行牧草引种试验的数据,结合产量效益分析了4个牧草品种对当地土壤与气候条件的适应性,初步得出适应杭锦旗北部气候、生态条件的牧草品种,并通过产量效益分析,确定了适合当地的牧草间、混作模式,为当地建立人工饲草基地发展生态畜牧业提供决策参考。     

2003年云南大姚6.2级和6.1级地震余震S波分裂研究

利用2003年云南大姚6.2、 6.1级两次地震的余震资料对该区进行了S波分裂研究。 结果表明, 云南大姚地区的快剪切波偏振的优势方向约为N33°W, 与该区域的区域主压应力的方向一致。 通过对比6.2级余震和6.1级余震的偏振方向和延迟时间, 可以看到6.1级地震后明显的应力释放现象, 在几次强余震前, 均观测到延迟时间呈现增加的特征, 并且几次地震在即将发生之前的短时间内还观测到延迟时间有减小的现象, 这一现象符合震前应力长时间积累和短时间应力释放的结论, 时间延迟在强震前会出现下降具有重要的地震短临预测意义。 研究认为S波分裂参数可以反映区域应力场的动态变化信息, 为应力场研究与地震预测提供有用的信息。     

基于浮点遗传算法的近震定位方法

文中介绍了一种适用于基于浮点遗传算法的地震定位问题方法, 在该算法中选用了浮点基因表示方法、 参数和基因取值范围一致来避免编码解码, 提出了算法的动态结束条件及处理方法。 通过实际运算检验证明使用该方法来实现地震定位可以避免地震定位中的不稳定性和对初值的依赖性, 从而保证地震定位的可靠性和稳定性, 在时效方面也达到了相当的水平, 是一个具有实际使用价值的算法。     

中国大陆地壳运动与强震关系研究

利用GPS观测结果研究了中国大陆当前地壳运动的空间分布及其所揭示的大区域构造变形背景与趋势;讨论了区域水平运动、应变率场分布与强震地点的关系;通过对昆仑山口西Ms8.1等地震区域水平运动与形变的分析,研究了强震过程的区域形变场变化的主要特征;提出了识别孕震形变场以进行中长期强震地点预测的思路和途径。     

新疆乌什6.2级地震的中期预测

介绍了利用地倾斜资料和中国地壳运动网络工程GPS复测资料对新疆地区震情进行跟踪研究的基本依据、方法和过程,对2005年2月15日发生的乌什Ms6.2地震给出了较好的年度预测意见。