Integration of transfer function model and back propagation neural network for forecasting storm sewer flow in Taipei metropolis

Typhoons and storms have often brought heavy rainfalls and induced floods that have frequently caused severe damage and loss of life in Taiwan. Our ability to predict sewer discharge and forecast floods in advance during storm seasons plays an important role in flood warning and flood hazard mitigation. In this paper, we develop an integrated model (TFMBPN) for forecasting sewer discharge that combines two traditional models: a transfer function model and a back propagation neural network. We evaluated the integrated model and the two traditional models by applying them to a sewer system of Taipei metropolis during three past typhoon events (NARI, SINLAKU, and NAKR). The performances of the models were evaluated by using predictions of a total of 6 h of sewer flow stages, and six different evaluation indices of the predictions. Finally, an overall performance index was determined to assess the overall performance of each model. Based on these evaluation indices, our analysis shows that TFMBNP yields accurate results that surpass the two traditional models. Thus, TFMBNP appears to be a promising tool for flood forecasting for the Taipei metropolis sewer system. For publication in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Analysis.     

Variations of near-surface atmospheric CO2 and H2O concentrations during summer on Muztagata

Expeditions during the summers of 2002 and 2003 implemented continuous monitoring of near-surface (2 m height) atmospheric CO₂ and H₂O concentrations at the 4500 m elevation on Muztagata. The resultant data sets reveal a slight decrease of CO₂ concentrations (of about 5 μmol·mol^-1) and changes in the diurnal variations from the end of June to the middle August. The daily maximum CO₂ concentrations occur between 02:30-05:30 AM (local time) and the minimum levels occur between 12:00-15:30 PM. The atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the summer of 2002 were around 5 μmol·mol^-1 lower than those during the same period of 2003, whereas the diurnal amplitude was higher. In contrast, we found that the daily mean atmospheric H₂O content in 2003 was much lower than that in 2002 and there exists a striking negative correlation between CO₂ and H₂O concentrations. We therefore suggest that the near-surface atmospheric CO₂ concentration is affected not only by photosynthesis and respiration, but also by the air H₂O content in the glaciated region around Muztagata.     

TSP在隧道超前地质预报的应用研究

由于隧道施工经常遇到严重的地质灾害,施工前进行超前地质预报是十分必要的。本文介绍了TSP超前地质预报系统的技术特点和基本原理,结合工程实例探讨了在使用TSP过程中的一些技术问题。结果显示利用工程地质调查结论可以确定合理的探测方案和提高TSP的预报精度。     

日本2006年度地震调查研究项目简介

日本地震调查研究推进本部于2005年8月30日召开第22次本部会议,汇总文部科学省、经济产业省、国土交通省等有关部门的2006年度地震调查研究预算,概算要求总额达131亿日元(不包括独立行政法人等运作经费),比2005年度预算额增加41%。在此之前,地震调查研究本部政策委员会的预算小     

四川省森林火险预报系统

四川省森林火险预报系统是用VB6.0语言编写,采用多因子线性回归统计方法建立的一套森林火险等级预报业务系统;本系统通用性强、功能齐全,为预报员提供了一套较完备的火险等级预报工具,同时实现了等值线这一科学计算可视化表现方式,摆脱了对专业绘图软件的依赖.     

L波段碳湿敏元件特性试验

目前国内大部分探空站已经启用新一代探空仪——上海长望气象科技有限公司生产的L波段电子探空仪。新探空仪的数据率、测量准确度和可靠性都有较大的提高。新探空仪使用的湿度敏感元件是碳湿敏电阻。我们利用工厂添置的能测到-30℃低温的高精度湿度校准设备，进行了大量静态测试，进一步验证了碳湿敏元件与老探空仪使用的肠衣敏感元件相比，灵敏度高，滞后小，在高空低温期间感应陕，测量准确度有较大提高。     

地震资料解释中的误区与科学思维

地震资料解释是地震勘探的核心环节,但地震资料解释人员一些认识上误区在一定程度上制约了着它的发展。通过实例,介绍了当前的资料解释人员存在的七种主要误区,并分别对这些认识误区进行了深入的分析,探讨其错误实质及危害,以帮助资料解释人员树立一种地震资料解释的科学思维,提高地震资料解释水平。     

集对分析在西安市地下水污染动态评价的应用

选取总固体、总硬度、硝酸盐、氯化物、氟化物、六价铬等六种主要污染物,利用集对分析的方法,将超标率、污染指数和超标面积指数综合起来,对 1985-2003 年西安建成区地下水进行了动态评价.该方法既克服了依靠某年监测值对地下水质的静态空间评价,又可将超标率、污染指数和超标面积综合起来,完成地下水水质的动态评价.     

神农架大九湖15.753kaB.P.以来的孢粉记录和环境演变*

根据对大九湖297cm厚的泥炭地层10个AMS ¹⁴ C年龄的测定以及148块孢粉样品的分析,发现每块样品的孢粉(浓度)含量都很高,植物种类繁多,分属于137(科)属,可划分为6个孢粉组合带,植被类型演替大体为:含少量常绿树种的针阔叶混交林—含常绿阔叶树种的落叶阔叶林—常绿落叶阔叶林—含常绿阔叶树种的落叶阔叶林—含少量常绿树种的针阔叶混交林。孢粉带Ⅰ(15.753~11.280kaB.P.)记录了该区域晚冰期及其向全新世过渡时期冷暖波动频繁的气候条件,其中亚带Ⅰ -1(15.753~15.549kaB.P.),Ⅰ -3(14.936~14.505kaB.P.)和Ⅰ -5(12.655~11.280kaB.P.)可能分别对应最老仙女木期、老仙女木和新仙女木冷期,而亚带Ⅰ -2(15.549~14.936kaB.P.)和Ⅰ -4(14.505~12.655kaB.P.)分别对应博令和阿勒罗德暖期。孢粉带Ⅱ(11.280~9.218kaB.P.)代表了由晚冰期冷湿气候向全新世温暖气候转换的早全新世缓慢升温的过渡时期。孢粉带Ⅲ(9.218~7.530kaB.P.)代表中全新世前期的气温波动上升期,7.7kaB.P.前后达到最高温。孢粉带Ⅳ(7.530~4.051kaB.P.)代表中全新世适宜期,水热配置条件最佳。孢粉带Ⅴ(4.051~0.911kaB.P.)体现晚全新世温干的气候。孢粉带Ⅵ(0.911~0kaB.P)反映了大九湖温凉稍湿的气候。     

三门峡新一代天气雷达冰雹回波特征分析

利用三门峡新一代天气雷达资料，分析了冰雹天气时雷达产品的特征，并确定冰雹天气预报指标。