Control of Cambrian evaporites on fracturing in fault-related anticlines in the Zagros fold-and-thrust belt

Orientation and distribution of fractures in the Oligocene–Early Miocene Asmari Formation (a major reservoir rock of the Zagros petroleum system) were investigated in two anticlines of the Zagros fold-and-thrust belt. The Sim and Kuh-e-Asmari anticlines developed in the areas of the Zagros characterized by the occurrence and absence of Cambrian evaporites at the bottom of the stratigraphic pile, respectively. The aim was to outline major differences in terms of fracture spacing and saturation. Organic matter maturity and clay minerals-based geothermometers suggest that the depth of deformation for the top of the Asmari Formation in the Kuh-e-Asmari anticline was in the range of 1.5–2.7 km assuming a geothermal gradient of 22.5 °C/km. The Asmari Formation in the Sim anticline probably experienced a slightly deeper sedimentary burial (maximum 3 km) with a geothermal gradient of 20 °C/km. The spacing of fractures is generally 2–3 times larger (i.e., strain accommodated by fracturing is smaller) in the Sim anticline than in the Kuh-e-Asmari anticline. This is consistent with regional geological studies, analogue, and numerical models that suggest that thrust faults geometry and related folds are markedly different in the absence or presence of a weak decòllement (evaporites). The larger spacing in the Sim anticline is also consistent with higher temperature predicted for the Asmari Formation in this area. By contrast, the orientation of fractures with respect to the fold axes is the same in both anticlines. The fracture systems are rather immature in both anticlines. The amount and density of fractures in the twofolds are controlled by regional (occurrence/absence of salt and probably different burial), rather than local features (fold geometry).     

Neglected basement ductile deformation in balanced-section restoration: An example from the Central Southern Alps (Northern Italy)

In the construction of balanced sections through thick-skinned belts, basement bodies are frequently assumed to be rigid and internally undeformed (with the exception of regional scale fault-bend-folding) and only backstripping of thrust faults is performed during their retrodeformation, possibly leading to underestimations of the regional shortening. This simplifying assumption is generally made because reliable information on internal strain in basement is lacking and the sedimentary cover of the internal parts of thrust belts has been removed by erosion.In a basement exposure in the eastern Orobic Alps, Alpine-age ductile structures (mainly chevron to sub-isoclinal folds rarely associated with cleavage formation) were recognized on the basis of overprinting criteria, folding style and fabric orientation and their areal distribution was determined by foliation trace mapping. Although unevenly distributed in different lithologies, ductile deformation is considerable (average shortening is 47%). Neglecting such internal strain during construction of balanced sections leads, for this area, to an underestimation of at least 10%, but could be more than 40% if the observed basement shortening is extrapolated to other basement-involved thrust bodies across the entire width of the deformed belt.It is concluded that detailed structural studies of the basement, for example those using a foliation trace mapping technique, are necessary to define the internal strain of basement bodies so that the shortening of thick-skinned belts can be more accurately calculated.     

Mapping potential surface ponding in agriculture using UAV-SfM

Among the environmental problems that could affect agriculture, one of the most critical is ponding. This may be defined as water storage on the surface in concavities and depressions due to soil saturation. Stagnant water can seriously affect crops and the management of agricultural landscapes. It is mainly caused by prolonged rainfall events, soil type, or wrong mechanization practices, which cause soil compaction. To better understand this problem and thus provide adequate solutions to reduce the related risk, high-resolution topographic information could be strategically important because it offers an accurate representation of the surface morphology. In the last decades, new remote sensing techniques provide interesting opportunities to understand the processes on the Earth's surface based on geomorphic signatures. Among these, Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), combined with the structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry technique, represent a solid, low-cost, rapid, and flexible solution for geomorphological analysis. This study aims to present a new approach to detect the potential areas exposed to water stagnation at the farm scale. The high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) from UAV-SfM data is used to do this. The potential water depth was calculated in the DEM using the relative elevation attribute algorithm. The detection of more pronounced concavities and convexities allowed an estimation and mapping of the potential ponding conditions. The results were assessed by observations and field measurements and are promising, showing a Cohen's k(X) accuracy of 0.683 for the planimetric extent of the ponding phenomena and a Pearson's r_xy coefficient of 0.971 for the estimation of pond water depth. The proposed workflow provides a useful indication to stakeholders for better agricultural management in lowland landscapes.     

Near‐source seismic hazard and design scenarios

Earthquakes damage engineering structures near, relatively to the rupture's size, to the source. In this region, the fault's dynamics affect ground motion propagation differently from site to site, resulting in systematic spatial variability known as directivity. Although a number of researches recommend that records with directivity‐related velocity pulses should be explicitly taken into account when defining design seismic action on structures, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), in its standard version, seems inadequate for the scope. In the study, it is critically reviewed why, from the structural engineering point of view, hazard assessment should account for near‐source effects (i.e., pulse‐like ground motions), and how this can be carried out adjusting PSHA analytically via introduction of specific terms and empirically calibrated models. Disaggregation analysis and design scenarios for near‐source PSHA are also formulated. The analytical procedures are then applied to develop examples of hazard estimates for sites close to strike–slip or dip–slip faults and to address differences with respect to the ordinary case, that is, when pulse‐like effects are not explicitly accounted for. Significant increase of hazard for selected spectral ordinates is found in all investigated cases; increments depend on the fault‐site configuration. Moreover, to address design scenarios for seismic actions on structures, disaggregation results are also discussed, along with limitations of current design spectra to highlight the pulse‐like effects of structural interest. Finally, an attempt to overcome these, by means of disaggregation‐based scenarios specific for the pulse occurrence case, is presented. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A FIC‐based stabilized mixed finite element method with equal order interpolation for solid–pore fluid interaction problems

A new mixed displacement‐pressure element for solving solid–pore fluid interaction problems is presented. In the resulting coupled system of equations, the balance of momentum equation remains unaltered, while the mass balance equation for the pore fluid is stabilized with the inclusion of higher‐order terms multiplied by arbitrary dimensions in space, following the finite calculus (FIC) procedure. The stabilized FIC‐FEM formulation can be applied to any kind of interpolation for the displacements and the pressure, but in this work, we have used linear elements of equal order interpolation for both set of unknowns. Examples in 2D and 3D are presented to illustrate the accuracy of the stabilized formulation for solid–pore fluid interaction problems. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rainfall stochastic modeling for runoff forecasting

Rainfall fields estimation over a catchment area is an important stage in many hydrological applications. In this context, weather radars have several advantages because a single-site can scan a vast area with very high temporal and spatial resolution. The construction of weather radar systems with dual polarization capability allowed progress on radar rainfall estimation and its hydro-meteorological applications. For these applications of radar data it is necessary to remove the ground clutter contamination with an algorithm based on the backscattering signal variance of the differential reflectivity. The calibration of the GDSTM model (Gaussian Displacements Spatial-Temporal Model), a cluster stochastic generation model in continuous space and time, is herewith presented. In this model, storms arrive in a Poisson process in time with cells occurring in each storm that cluster in space and time. The model is calibrated, using data collected by the weather radar Polar 55C located in Rome, inside a square area of 132 × 132 km², with the radar at the centre. The GDSTM is fitted to sequences of radar images with a time interval between the PPIs scans of 5 min. A generalized method of moment procedure is used for parameter estimation. For the validation of the ability of the model to reproduce internal structure of rain event, a geo-morphological rainfall-runoff model, based on width function (WFIUH), was calibrated using simulated and observed data. Several rainfall fields are generated with the stochastic model and later they are used as input of the WFIUH model so that the forecast discharges can be compared to the observed ones.     

Vegetation species mapping in a coastal-dune ecosystem using high resolution satellite imagery

Vegetation mapping is a priority when managing natural protected areas. In this context, very high resolution satellite remote sensing data can be fundamental in providing accurate vegetation cartography at species level. In this work, a complete processing methodology has been developed and validated in a complex vulnerable coastal-dune ecosystem. Specifically, the analysis has been carried out using WorldView-2 imagery, which offers spatial and spectral resolutions. A thorough assessment of 5 atmospheric correction models has been performed using real reflectance measures from a field radiometry campaign. To select the classification methodology, different strategies have been evaluated, including additional spectral (23 vegetation indices) and spatial (4 texture parameters) information to the multispectral bands. Likewise, the application of linear unmixing techniques has been tested and abundance maps of each plant species have been generated using the library of spectral signatures recorded during the campaign. After the analysis conducted, a new methodology has been proposed based on the use of the 6S atmospheric model and the Support Vector Machine classification algorithm applied to a combination of different spectral and spatial input data. Specifically, an overall accuracy of 88,03% was achieved combining the corrected multispectral bands plus a vegetation index (MSAVI2) and texture information (variance of the first principal component). Furthermore, the methodology has been validated by photointerpretation and 3 plant species achieve significant accuracy: Tamarix canariensis (94,9%), Juncus acutus (85,7%) and Launaea arborescens (62,4%). Finally, the classified procedure comparing maps for different seasons has also shown robustness to changes in the phenological state of the vegetation.     

Closed‐form aftershock reliability of damage‐cumulating elastic‐perfectly‐plastic systems

Major earthquakes (i.e., mainshocks) typically trigger a sequence of lower magnitude events clustered both in time and space. Recent advances of seismic hazard analysis stochastically model aftershock occurrence (given the main event) as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with rate that decays in time as a negative power law. Risk management in the post‐event emergency phase has to deal with this short‐term seismicity. In fact, because the structural systems of interest might have suffered some damage in the mainshock, possibly worsened by damaging aftershocks, the failure risk may be large until the intensity of the sequence reduces or the structure is repaired. At the state‐of‐the‐art, the quantitative assessment of aftershock risk is aimed at building tagging, that is, to regulate occupancy. The study, on the basis of age‐dependent stochastic processes, derived closed‐form approximations for the aftershock reliability of simple nonevolutionary elastic‐perfectly‐plastic damage‐cumulating systems, conditional on different information about the structure. Results show that, in the case hypotheses apply, the developed models may represent a basis for handy tools enabling risk‐informed tagging by stakeholders and decision makers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.