Correlation Structures between Satellite All-Sky Infrared Brightness Temperatures and the Atmospheric State at Storm Scales

This study explores the structures of the correlations between infrared(IR)brightness temperatures(BTs)from the three water vapor channels of the Advanced Baseline Imager(ABI)onboard the GOES-16 satellite and the atmospheric state.Ensemble-based data assimilation techniques such as the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)rely on correlations to propagate innovations of BTs to increments of model state variables.Because the three water vapor channels are sensitive to moisture in different layers of the troposphere,the heights of the strongest correlations between these channels and moisture in clear-sky regions are closely related to the peaks of their respective weighting functions.In cloudy regions,the strongest correlations appear at the cloud tops of deep clouds,and ice hydrometeors generally have stronger correlations with BT than liquid hydrometeors.The magnitudes of the correlations decrease from the peak value in a column with both vertical and horizontal distance.Just how the correlations decrease depend on both the cloud scenes and the cloud structures,as well as the model variables.Horizontal correlations between BTs and moisture,as well as hydrometeors,in fully cloudy regions decrease to almost 0 at about 30 km.The horizontal correlations with atmospheric state variables in clear-sky regions are broader,maintaining non-zero values out to~100 km.The results in this study provide information on the proper choice of cut-off radii in horizontal and vertical localization schemes for the assimilation of BTs.They also provide insights on the most efficient and effective use of the different water vapor channels.     

Doubt and the Values of an Ignorance-Based World View for Restoration: Coastal Louisiana Wetlands

Embracing doubt, a signature strength of science, is an essential core component of an ignorance-based-world view (IBWV) that assumes the areas of certainty are small relative to the large field of ignorance. The contrasting knowledge-based world view (KBWV) assumes that small and mostly insignificant knowledge gaps exist. When the KBWV is combined with a sense of urgency to “do something,” then the intellectual landscape is flattened, the introduction of new ideas is impeded, monitoring and adaptive management is marginalized, risky behaviors continue, and social learning is restricted. The history of three coastal Louisiana land-uses (agricultural impoundment, marsh management, and dredging) is one of ignored and untested assumptions that might have provided a cause-and-effect means to avoid catastrophic land losses—the result of a KBWV that remains the primary perspective of Louisiana’s current coastal restoration and management program that includes river diversions and a proposed expansion of hurricane protection levees into wetlands. I argue from the pathology of results that willful adoption of an IBWV in the administration, management, and implementation of restoration will reduce the scale and diversity of significant missteps in the future, improve project efficiencies, and cause fewer unintended consequences that cannot (again) be retracted.     

Seasonal variation in the toxicity of sediment-associated contaminants in Corpus Christi Bay, TX

Seasonal variation in pore water and sediment-water interface (SWI) toxicity at two sites of suspected contamination was investigated using sea urchin embryological development (Arbacia punctulata) and copepod hatching success (Schizopera knabeni). Site S1, located inside a marina, was fine-grained and S2, located near a neighboring stormwater outfall, was sandy. Both sites were cored in summer and winter, along with reference sites of equivalent grain sizes. Whereas the muddy contaminated site displayed a slight decrease in sea urchin toxicity from summer to winter, pore water from the sandy contaminated site exhibited an increase in sea urchin toxicity. The sandy sites displayed slight toxicity increase to copepod hatching success in winter, which occurred in the SWI of S2 and in the pore water from the reference site, R2, where it coincided with sedimentation. Cu was the most prevalent metal in the sediment samples. Although Cu concentration increased in the whole sediments and pore waters from summer to winter, its concentration in overlying SWI exposure decreased from summer to winter. Organic compounds exhibited opposite behavior, with smaller variety identified in the winter pore water samples, but more chemicals detected in the SWI samples in winter.     

Depositional environment and OSL chronology of the Homeb silt deposits, Kuiseb River, Namibia

Previous studies suggest that the Homeb silts of the Kuiseb valley, Namibia (i) accumulated in a dune-dammed lake, (ii) are end-point deposits, (iii) represent an aggrading river bed, and (iv) are slackwater deposits. Thus, they have been used alternatively as evidence of past drier conditions or past wetter conditions. Lithostratigraphic analysis of two sediment sequences at Homeb indicates sedimentation by aggradation of the Kuiseb River triggered by a transition from an arid to humid climate. OSL ages for the sequences were obtained by the SAR protocol on aliquots of 9.6-mm and 4.0-mm diameter and on single grains. Four-millimeter aliquot minimum ages closely approximate the single-grain minimum ages and are younger than 9.6-mm aliquot minimum and central ages. Based on these results, the small-aliquot (4-mm) approach appears to provide ages comparable to those obtained by the more laborious and time-consuming single-grain method. Minimum ages indicate rapid deposition of the Homeb Silts in at least two episodes centered at 15 ka and 6 ka during climate transitions from arid to humid. Flash floods eroded the valley fills during slightly more arid conditions.     

Theory for Reconstruction of an Unknown Number of Contaminant Sources using Probabilistic Inference

We address the inverse problem of source reconstruction for the difficult case of multiple sources when the number of sources is unknown a priori. The problem is solved using a Bayesian probabilistic inferential framework in which Bayesian probability theory is used to derive the posterior probability density function for the number of sources and for the parameters (e.g., location, emission rate, release time and duration) that characterize each source. A mapping (source–receptor relationship) that relates a multiple source distribution to the concentration measurements made by an array of detectors is formulated based on a forward-time Lagrangian stochastic model. A computationally efficient methodology for determination of the likelihood function for the problem, based on an adjoint representation of the source–receptor relationship and realized in terms of a backward-time Lagrangian stochastic model, is described. An efficient computational algorithm based on a parallel tempered Metropolis-coupled reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is formulated and implemented to draw samples from the posterior probability density function of the source parameters. This methodology allows the MCMC method to initiate jumps between the hypothesis spaces corresponding to different numbers of sources in the source distribution and, thereby, allows a sample from the full joint posterior distribution of the number of sources and the parameters for each source to be obtained. The proposed methodology for source reconstruction is tested using synthetic concentration data generated for cases involving two and three unknown sources.     

Shifting post production patterns: exploring changes in New Zealand's seafood processing industry

This paper examines the changing nature of New Zealand's seafood companies' production practices. The past 15 years has seen the offshore outsourcing of post-harvest fish gain unprecedented momentum. The growth in offshore processing is a further stage in an increasingly globalised fisheries value chain. Fish is head and gutted, frozen and then transported to processing sites in China where it is thawed, value-added processed and refrozen for export to the original sourcing country or third country markets. Reasons advanced by the industry for this shift in production practices include quota reductions, increasing production costs and the sale of trawlers.     

Upward acceleration of magnetospheric ions by oscillatory centrifugal force

The paper addresses the issue of upward acceleration of ions along geomagnetic field lines. It has been shown that ion acceleration by electric field oscillations (formerly known as magnetic moment “pumping” or MMP) may be treated as a centrifugal acceleration mechanism. More precisely, the case in point is oscillatory centrifugal acceleration; this brings up the question on comparing the MMP with the centrifugal acceleration caused by the quasi-static magnetospheric convection field. It has been found that at high geomagnetic latitudes, the oscillatory centrifugal force is weaker or stronger than the centrifugal force of magnetospheric convection if the ratio of the electric field oscillation amplitude to the mean field is correspondingly lower or higher than \(\sqrt 2 \). Analysis of data from measurements and calculations of magnetospheric electric fields suggests that, contrary to current opinion, the oscillatory centrifugal force may be comparable to the centrifugal force of magnetospheric convection and even exceed it when strong global Pc5 pulsations are excited in the magnetosphere.     

Comparing Two Implementations of a Micromixing Model. Part I: Wall Shear-Layer Flow

A Lagrangian stochastic (LS) micromixing model is used for estimating concentration fluctuations in plumes of a passive, non-reactive tracer dispersing from elevated and ground-level compact sources into a neutral wall shear-layer flow. SPMMM (for sequential particle micromixing model) implements the familiar IECM (interaction by exchange with the conditional mean) micromixing scheme. The parametrization of the scalar micromixing time scale is identical to that proposed in a previously reported LS–IECM model (Cassiani et al., Atmos Environ 39:1457–1469, 2005a). However, while SPMMM is mathematically equivalent to the previously reported model, it differs in its numerical implementation: SPMMM releases N independent particles sequentially, whereas the previously reported model releases N independent particles simultaneously. In both implementations, the trajectories of the N particles are governed by single-point velocity statistics. The sequential particle implementation is computationally efficient, but cannot be applied to the case of reacting species. Results from both implementations are compared to experimental wind-tunnel dispersion data and to each other.     

Climatology of summer midtropospheric perturbations in the US northern plains. Part II: large-scale effects of the Rocky Mountains on genesis

Propagating convective storms across the US northern plains are often coupled with preexisting midtropospheric perturbations (MPs) initiated over the Rocky Mountains. A companion study (Part I) notes that such MPs occur most commonly at 12 UTC (early morning) and 00 UTC (late afternoon). Using a regional reanalysis and a general circulation model (GCM), this study investigates how such a bimodal distribution of the MP frequency is formed. The results point to two possible mechanisms working together while each has a different timing in terms of maximum effect. The diurnal evolutions between the midtropospheric flows over the Rockies and over the Great Plains are nearly out-of-phase due to inertial oscillation. During the nighttime, the westerly flows at 700?C500?mb over the Rockies intensify while flows at the same level over the Great Plains turn easterly. These two flows converge over the eastern Rockies and induce cyclonic vorticity through vortex stretching. After sunrise, the convergence dissipates and the cyclonic vorticity is redistributed by horizontal vorticity advection, moving it downstream. This process creates a climatological zonally propagating vorticity signal which, in turn, facilitates the early-morning MP genesis at 12 UTC. The analysis also reveals marked dynamic instability conducive to subsynoptic-scale disturbances in the midtroposphere over the Rockies. Strong meridional temperature gradients appear over the north-facing slopes of the Rockies due to terrain heating to the south and the presence of cooler air to the north. This feature, along with persistent vertical shear, creates a Charney?CStern type of instability (i.e. sign changes of the meridional potential vorticity gradient). Meanwhile, the development of terrain boundary layer reduces the Rossby deformation radius which, subsequently, enhances the likelihood for baroclinic short waves. Such effects are most pronounced in the late afternoon and therefore are supportive to the MP genesis around 00 UTC. Examination of GCM experiments with and without orography further supports the critical role of the Rocky Mountains and its associated boundary layer impacts on the formation of MPs.     

圣安德烈斯断层南段大地震发生的准周期性

圣安德烈斯断层(美国加州)南段最后一次大地震距今已有153年了,而其平均震间间隔却仅为～100年.如果大地震的复发具有周期性,而并非随机发生或群集发生,则这个时间长度是很值得关注的,而且通常意味着概率意义上的地震危险性增大.遗憾的是,多数地震记录都很简单,这就限制了对单条断层上地震复发的分布特征的描述.本文利用加州Wr...