Microzonation of the city of Basel

During the past centuries, the city of Basel has suffered damage caused by earthquakes. One extraordinary event described in historical documents is the strong earthquake which occurred in 1356. The 1356 event, one of the strongest earthquakes in northwest-Europe, was obviously much stronger than the low-magnitude earthquakes observed in the area during this century. Even though the present seismicity in the Basel area is low, strong earthquakes have to be expected due to the city's geographical location close to the northern boundary of the African-European convergence zone, at the southern end of the Rhinegraben. A crucial step towards preparedness for future events and mitigation of earthquake risk involves a microzonation study of the city. The study is carried out in three steps: (1) a detailed mapping of the geology and geotechnical properties of the area, (2) measurement, interpretation and modelling of ambient noise data, and (3) numerical modelling of expected ground motions during earthquakes. A qualitative microzonation of the centre of Basel is presented, and it is discussed by comparing it to the historically reported damage of the 1356 earthquake.     

Methods for Estimating Air–Sea Fluxes of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Using High-Frequency Measurements

The most direct method for flux estimation uses eddy covariance, which is also the most commonly used method for land-based measurements of surface fluxes. Moving platforms are frequently used to make measurements over the sea, in which case motion can disturb the measurements. An alternative method for flux estimation should be considered if the effects of platform motion cannot be properly corrected for. Three methods for estimating CO₂ fluxes are studied here: the eddy-covariance, the inertial-dissipation, and the cospectral-peak methods. High-frequency measurements made at the land-based Östergarnsholm marine station in the Baltic Sea and measurements made from a ship during the Galathea 3 expedition are used. The Kolmogorov constant for CO₂, used in the inertial-dissipation method, is estimated to be 0.68 and is determined using direct flux measurements made at the Östergarnsholm site. The cospectral-peak method, originally developed for neutral stratification, is modified to be applicable in all stratifications. With these modifications, the CO₂ fluxes estimated using the three methods agree well. Using data from the Östergarnsholm site, the mean absolute error between the eddy-covariance and inertial-dissipation methods is 0.25 μmol  m^?2 s^?1. The corresponding mean absolute error between the eddy-covariance and cospectral-peak methods is 0.26 μmol m^?2 s^?1, while between the inertial-dissipation and cospectral-peak methods it is 0.14 μmol m^?2 s^?1.     

Hydraulic redistribution by deeply rooted grasses and its ecohydrologic implications in the southern Great Plains of North America

Perennial bioenergy crops with deep (>1 m) rooting systems, such as switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), are hypothesized to increase carbon storage in deep soil. Deeply rooted plants may also affect soil hydrology by accessing deep soil water for transpiration, which can affect soil water content and infiltration in deep soil layers, thereby affecting groundwater recharge. Using stable H and O isotope (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) and ³H values, we studied the soil water conditions at 20–30 cm intervals to depths of 2.4–3.6 m in paired fields of switchgrass and shallow rooted crops at three sites in the southern Great Plains of North America. We found that soil under switchgrass had consistently higher soil water content than nearby soil under shallow-rooted annual crops by a margin of 15%–100%. Soil water content and isotopic depth profiles indicated that hydraulic redistribution of deep soil water by switchgrass roots explained these observed soil water differences. To our knowledge, these are the first observations of hydraulic redistribution in deeply rooted grasses, and complement earlier observations of dynamic soil water fluxes under shallow-rooted grasses. Hydraulic redistribution by switchgrass may be a strategy for drought avoidance, wherein the plant may actively prevent water limitation. This raises the possibility that deeply rooted grasses may be used to passively subsidize soil water to more shallow-rooted species in inter-cropping arrangements.     

Extreme storm surge modelling in the North Sea

This study shows that storm surge model performance in the North Sea is mostly unaffected by the application of temporal variations of surface drag due to changes in sea state provided the choice of a suitable constant Charnock parameter in the sea-state-independent case. Including essential meteorological features on smaller scales and minimising interpolation errors by increasing forcing data resolution are shown to be more important for the improvement of model performance particularly at the high tail of the probability distribution. This is found in a modelling study using WAQUA/DCSMv5 by evaluating the influence of a realistic air-sea momentum transfer parameterization and comparing it to the influence of changes in the spatial and temporal resolution of the applied forcing fields in an effort to support the improvement of impact and climate analysis studies. Particular attention is given to the representation of extreme water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5 is forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from a set of different forcing fields, which either (i) include a wave-state-dependent Charnock parameter or (ii) apply a constant Charnock parameter (α _{C h} =?0.032) tuned for young sea states in the North Sea, but differ in their spatial and/or temporal resolution. Increasing forcing field resolution from roughly 79 to 12 km through dynamically downscaling can reduce the modelled low bias, depending on coastal station, by up to 0.25 m for the modelled extreme water levels with a 1-year return period and between 0.1 m and 0.5 m for extreme surge heights.     

Circulation statistics and climate change in Central Europe: PRUDENCE simulations and observations

PRUDENCE simulations of the climate in Central Europe are analysed with respect to mean temperature, mean precipitation and three monthly mean geostrophic circulation indices. The three global models show important circulation biases in the control climate, in particular in the strength of the west-circulations in winter and summer. The nine regional models inherit much of the circulation biases from their host model, especially in winter. In summer, the regional models show a larger spread in circulation statistics, depending on nesting procedures and other model characteristics. Simulated circulation biases appear to have a significant inluence on simulated temperature and precipitation. The PRUDENCE ensemble appears to be biased towards warmer and wetter than observed circulations in winter, and towards warmer and dryer circulations in summer. A2-scenario simulations show important circulation changes, which have a significant impact on changes in the distributions of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. It is likely that interactions between land–surface processes and atmospheric circulation play an important role in the simulated changes in the summer climate in Central Europe.     

Effective velocities in fractured media: a numerical study using the rotated staggered finite‐difference grid

The modelling of elastic waves in fractured media with an explicit finite‐difference scheme causes instability problems on a staggered grid when the medium possesses high‐contrast discontinuities (strong heterogeneities). For the present study we apply the rotated staggered grid. Using this modified grid it is possible to simulate the propagation of elastic waves in a 2D or 3D medium containing cracks, pores or free surfaces without hard‐coded boundary conditions. Therefore it allows an efficient and precise numerical study of effective velocities in fractured structures. We model the propagation of plane waves through a set of different, randomly cracked media. In these numerical experiments we vary the wavelength of the plane waves, the crack porosity and the crack density. The synthetic results are compared with several static theories that predict the effective P‐ and S‐wave velocities in fractured materials in the long wavelength limit. For randomly distributed and randomly orientated, rectilinear, non‐intersecting, thin, dry cracks, the numerical simulations of velocities of P‐, SV‐ and SH‐waves are in excellent agreement with the results of the modified (or differential) self‐consistent theory. On the other hand for intersecting cracks, the critical crack‐density (porosity) concept must be taken into account. To describe the wave velocities in media with intersecting cracks, we propose introducing the critical crack‐density concept into the modified self‐consistent theory. Numerical simulations show that this new formulation predicts effective elastic properties accurately for such a case.     

Glacial isostasy and plate motion

The influence of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) on the motion of tectonic plates is usually neglected. Employing a recently developed numerical approach, we examine the effect of glacial loading on the motion of the Earth’s tectonic plates where we consider an elastic lithosphere of laterally variable strength and the plates losely connected by low viscous zones. The aim of this paper is to elucidate the physical processes which control the GIA-induced horizontal motion and to assess the impact of finite plate-boundary zones. We show that the present-day motion of tectonic plates induced by GIA is at, or above, the order of accuracy of the plate motions determined by very precise GPS observations. Therefore, its contribution should be considered when interpreting the mechanism controlling plate motion.     

Geodetic data shed light on ongoing caldera subsidence at Askja, Iceland

Subsidence within the main caldera of Askja volcano in the North of Iceland has been in progress since 1983. Here, we present new ground- and satellite-based deformation data, which we interpret together with new and existing micro-gravity data, to help understand which processes may be responsible for the unrest. From 2003 to 2007, we observe a net micro-gravity decrease combined with subsidence and from 2007 to 2009 we observe a net micro-gravity increase while the subsidence continues. We infer subsidence is caused by a combination of a cooling and contracting magma chamber at a divergent plate boundary. Mass movements at active volcanoes can be caused by several processes, including water table/lake level movements, hydrothermal activity and magma movements. We suggest that, here, magma movement and/or a steam cap in the geothermal system of Askja at depth are responsible for the observed micro-gravity variations. In this respect, we rule out the possibility of a shallow intrusion as an explanation for the observed micro-gravity increase but suggest magma may have flowed into the residing shallow magma chamber at Askja despite continued subsidence. In particular, variable compressibility of magma residing in the magma chamber as well as compressibility of the surrounding rock may be the reason why this additional magma did not create any detectable surface deformation.