The synergistic powers of AEM and GIS geodatabase models in water resources studies

Comprehensive studies of water resources systems require integration of modeling tools and data associated with individual processes. An object-oriented approach is presented here that associates ground water models based upon the analytic element method (AEM) with geographic information system (GIS) geodatabase features using an AEM Model Interface. Each aquifer object contains a prescribed geometry, a mathematical representation in the AEM, and GIS hydrogeologic data. The synergistic understanding inherent in such an approach is illustrated by a study linking local AEM model predictions of water elevation with ground water geodatabase objects. This AEM Model Interface provides a key component in establishing a common object-oriented geodatabase modeling approach linking ground water to a variety of natural and social processes.     

Electrical resistance sensors record spring flow timing, Grand Canyon, Arizona

Springs along the south rim of the Grand Canyon, Arizona, are important ecological and cultural resources in Grand Canyon National Park and are discharge points for regional and local aquifers of the Coconino Plateau. This study evaluated the applicability of electrical resistance (ER) sensors for measuring diffuse, low-stage (<1.0 cm) intermittent and ephemeral flow in the steep, rocky spring-fed tributaries of the south rim. ER sensors were used to conduct a baseline survey of spring flow timing at eight sites in three spring-fed tributaries in Grand Canyon. Sensors were attached to a nearly vertical rock wall at a spring outlet and were installed in alluvial and bedrock channels. Spring flow timing data inferred by the ER sensors were consistent with observations during site visits, with flow events recorded with collocated streamflow gauging stations and with local precipitation gauges. ER sensors were able to distinguish the presence of flow along nearly vertical rock surfaces with flow depths between 0.3 and 1.0 cm. Laboratory experiments confirmed the ability of the sensors to monitor the timing of diffuse flow on impervious surfaces. A comparison of flow patterns along the stream reaches and at springs identified the timing and location of perennial and intermittent flow, and periods of increased evapotranspiration.     

Validating a rapid-update satellite precipitation analysis across telescoping space and time scales

In order to properly utilize remotely sensed precipitation estimates in hydrometeorological applications, knowledge of the accuracy of the estimates are needed. However, relatively few ground validation networks operate with the necessary spatial density and time-resolution required for validation of high-resolution precipitation products (HRPP) generated at fine space and time scales (e.g., hourly accumulations produced on a 0.25° spatial scale). In this article, we examine over-land validation statistics for an operationally designed, meteorological satellite-based global rainfall analysis that blends intermittent passive microwave-derived rainfall estimates aboard a variety of low Earth-orbiting satellite platforms with sub-hourly time sampling capabilities of visible and infrared imagers aboard operational geostationary platforms. The validation dataset is comprised of raingauge data collected from the dense, nearly homogeneous, 1-min reporting Automated Weather Station (network of the Korean Meteorological Administration during the June to August 2000 summer monsoon season. The space-time RMS error, mean bias, and correlation matrices were computed using various time windows for the gauge averaging, centered about the satellite observation time. For ±10 min time window, a correlation of 0.6 was achieved at 0.1° spatial scale by averaging more than 3 days; coarsening the spatial scale to 1.8° produced the same correlation by averaging over 1 h. Finer than approximately 24-h and 1° time and space scales, respectively, a rapid decay of the error statistics was obtained by trading-off either spatial or time resolution. Beyond a daily time scale, the blended estimates were nearly unbiased and with an RMS error of no worse than 1 mm day^?1.     

A comparison of shelf observation platforms for assimilation in an eddy-resolving ocean model

An assessment of the likely benefits of assimilating in situ temperature (T) and salinity (S) observations from repeat glider transects and surface velocity observations from high-frequency radar arrays into an eddy-resolving ocean model is presented. The deployment of new shelf observation platforms around Australia is being undertaken through the Australian Integrated Marine Observing System program. In this study, various options for an observing system along the coast of New South Wales, Australia, are assessed for their benefits to an ocean forecast and reanalysis system. The forecast system considered here uses ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) for data assimilation. Using error estimates from the EnOI scheme, estimates of the theoretical analysis errors are calculated for different observing systems that include a range of remotely sensed and in situ observations. The results demonstrate that if HF radar observations are assimilated along with the standard components of the global ocean observing system, the analysis errors are likely to reduce by as much as 80% for velocity and 60% for T, S and sea-level in the vicinity of the observations. Owing to the relatively short along-shore decorrelation length-scales for T and S near the shelf, the glider observations are likely to provide the forecast system with a more modest gain.     

Transnational linkages and the spillover of environment-efficiency into developing countries

Arguments about the “positive” influence of growing transnational linkages have typically focused on their role in diffusing environmentally superior innovations which help to raise countries’ environment-efficiency. The present article empirically tests these claims by examining whether developing countries’ linkages with more CO₂- and SO₂-efficient economies contribute to domestic improvements in CO₂- and SO₂-efficiency. Our large-N, statistical findings caution against some of the efficiency-oriented optimism voiced by supporters of globalization. Although imports ties with more pollution-efficient countries are found to spillover into improved domestic CO₂- and SO₂-efficiency, neither transnational linkages via exports, inward foreign direct investment (FDI) nor telephone calls appear to have any influence on domestic pollution-efficiency.     

Future climate in the Pacific Northwest

Climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on the whole reproduce the observed seasonal cycle and twentieth century warming trend of 0.8°C (1.5°F) in the Pacific Northwest, and point to much greater warming for the next century. These models project increases in annual temperature of, on average, 1.1°C (2.0°F) by the 2020s, 1.8°C (3.2°F) by the 2040s, and 3.0°C (5.3°F) by the 2080s, compared with the average from 1970 to 1999, averaged across all climate models. Rates of warming range from 0.1°C to 0.6°C (0.2°F to 1.0°F) per decade. Projected changes in annual precipitation, averaged over all models, are small (+1% to +2%), but some models project an enhanced seasonal cycle with changes toward wetter autumns and winters and drier summers. Changes in nearshore sea surface temperatures, though smaller than on land, are likely to substantially exceed interannual variability, but coastal upwelling changes little. Rates of twenty-first century sea level rise will depend on poorly known factors like ice sheet instability in Greenland and Antarctica, and could be as low as twentieth century values (20 cm, 8^″) or as large as 1.3 m (50^″).     

Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington

Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional climate of the State of Washington. Regional climate models explicitly simulate the interactions between the large-scale weather patterns simulated by a global model and the local terrain. We have performed two 100-year regional climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). One simulation is forced by the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the second is forced by a simulation of the Max Plank Institute, Hamburg, global model (ECHAM5). The mesoscale simulations produce regional changes in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land-water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. To illustrate this effect, we analyze the changes from the current climate (1970–1999) to the mid twenty-first century (2030–2059). Changes in seasonal-mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack are presented. Several climatological indices of extreme daily weather are also presented: precipitation intensity, fraction of precipitation occurring in extreme daily events, heat wave frequency, growing season length, and frequency of warm nights. Despite somewhat different changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature from the two regional simulations, consistent results for changes in snowpack and extreme precipitation are found in both simulations.     

Preparing for climate change in Washington State

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.     

Observed changes in pan-arctic cold-season minimum monthly river discharge

Recent changes in pan-arctic land-surface hydrology may significantly affect ecosystems and the built environment. While spatial and temporal patterns in land-surface hydrology trends can be identified using in situ observations of river discharge, the existing studies of cold-season river discharge are often inconsistent and incomparable because they use different methodologies, time periods and geographic regions. By using a comprehensive dataset of river discharge and a trend analysis applying one algorithm over a range of temporal and spatial scales, a synthesis of pan-arctic cold-season low-flow was performed. Cold-season low-flow is increasing over most of the pan-arctic, with decreasing flow in eastern North America and unchanged flow in small basins in the late twentieth century in eastern Eurasia as the main exceptions. This study provides the first synthesis of spatially distributed cold-season low-flow trends in the pan-arctic and indicates that widespread changes in pan-arctic subsurface hydrology are occurring.     

Unique isoprene oxidation products demonstrate chlorine atom chemistry occurs in the Houston,Texas urban area

As part of the 2000 Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS), we studied the isoprene oxidation process under ambient conditions to discern the presence of chlorine atom (Cl) chemistry in the Houston, Texas urban area. By measuring chloromethylbutenone (CMBO) and an isomer of chloromethylbutenal (CMBA), we clearly observed sixteen episodes of active Cl chemistry during the 24-day experiment. Estimated median Cl concentration during each of these episodes was between the detection limit of ~10² atoms cm⁻³ and 50 _{- 30} ^{+ 70} ×10⁴ 50_{ - 30}^{ + 70} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³. Cl concentration during all the episodes averaged 7.6 _{- 2.0} ^{+ 4.7} ×10⁴ 7.6_{ - 2.0}^{ + 4.7} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³ and thus amounted to less than 3% of the OH concentration during the same periods. During the episodes, the fraction of oxidation chemistry initiated by Cl ranged from 3–43% and was strongly dependent on the quantity and type of hydrocarbons present in the atmosphere. Because of its intermittent presence and low concentration, Cl is not a broadly influential oxidant in the Houston, Texas urban area.