Investigating the impact of the properties of pilot points on calibration of groundwater models: case study of a karst catchment in Rote Island,Indonesia

A robust configuration of pilot points in the parameterisation step of a model is crucial to accurately obtain a satisfactory model performance. However, the recommendations provided by the majority of recent researchers on pilot-point use are considered somewhat impractical. In this study, a practical approach is proposed for using pilot-point properties (i.e. number, distance and distribution method) in the calibration step of a groundwater model. For the first time, the relative distance–area ratio (d/A) and head-zonation-based (HZB) method are introduced, to assign pilot points into the model domain by incorporating a user-friendly zone ratio. This study provides some insights into the trade-off between maximising and restricting the number of pilot points, and offers a relative basis for selecting the pilot-point properties and distribution method in the development of a physically based groundwater model. The grid-based (GB) method is found to perform comparably better than the HZB method in terms of model performance and computational time. When using the GB method, this study recommends a distance–area ratio of 0.05, a distance–x-grid length ratio (d/X _grid) of 0.10, and a distance–y-grid length ratio (d/Y _grid) of 0.20.     

Source partitioning of anthropogenic groundwater nitrogen in a mixed-use landscape,Tutuila, American Samoa

This study presents a modeling framework for quantifying human impacts and for partitioning the sources of contamination related to water quality in the mixed-use landscape of a small tropical volcanic island. On Tutuila, the main island of American Samoa, production wells in the most populated region (the Tafuna-Leone Plain) produce most of the island’s drinking water. However, much of this water has been deemed unsafe to drink since 2009. Tutuila has three predominant anthropogenic non-point-groundwater-pollution sources of concern: on-site disposal systems (OSDS), agricultural chemicals, and pig manure. These sources are broadly distributed throughout the landscape and are located near many drinking-water wells. Water quality analyses show a link between elevated levels of total dissolved groundwater nitrogen (TN) and areas with high non-point-source pollution density, suggesting that TN can be used as a tracer of groundwater contamination from these sources. The modeling framework used in this study integrates land-use information, hydrological data, and water quality analyses with nitrogen loading and transport models. The approach utilizes a numerical groundwater flow model, a nitrogen-loading model, and a multi-species contaminant transport model. Nitrogen from each source is modeled as an independent component in order to trace the impact from individual land-use activities. Model results are calibrated and validated with dissolved groundwater TN concentrations and inorganic δ¹⁵N values, respectively. Results indicate that OSDS contribute significantly more TN to Tutuila’s aquifers than other sources, and thus should be prioritized in future water-quality management efforts.     

Probabilistic domain decomposition for the solution of the two-dimensional magnetotelluric problem

Probabilistic domain decomposition is proposed as a novel method for solving the two-dimensional Maxwell’s equations as used in the magnetotelluric method. The domain is split into non-overlapping sub-domains and the solution on the sub-domain boundaries is obtained by evaluating the stochastic form of the exact solution of Maxwell’s equations by a Monte-Carlo approach. These sub-domains can be naturally chosen by splitting the sub-surface domain into regions of constant (or at least continuous) conductivity. The solution over each sub-domain is obtained by solving Maxwell’s equations in the strong form. The sub-domain solver used for this purpose is a meshless method resting on radial basis function-based finite differences. The method is demonstrated by solving a number of classical magnetotelluric problems, including the quarter-space problem, the block-in-half-space problem and the triangle-in-half-space problem.     

Modeling core-scale permeability anisotropy in highly bioturbated “tight oil” reservoir rocks

A high-resolution simulation model of a heterogeneous low-permeability rock sample is used to investigate the effects of physical and biogenic sedimentary structures on scaling and anisotropy of absolute permeability at the core scale. Several simulation sub-samples with random locations and volumes were also selected for evaluation of the effects of scale and lithological composition on the calculated permeability. Vertical and horizontal permeability values (from whole core simulation) are in good agreement with routine core analysis (RCA) measurements from offsetting cores. Despite relatively good reservoir quality associated with geobodies of biogenic and relic bedding structures, results from the full diameter core simulation demonstrate that their limited volumetric abundance and restricted connectivity prevent these features from controlling fluid flow in these rocks. In fact, permeability seems to be dominated by the tighter encasing matrix, which exhibits average permeability values very close to those reported from RCA. Geometric averaging offers a better representation for the upscaling of horizontal permeability datasets; whereas, both geometric and harmonic averaging work similarly well for the vertical measurements. The methodology used in this work is particularly applicable to the detailed characterization of reservoir rocks with a high degree of heterogeneity caused by biological reworking and diagenesis.     

Effects of Microparameters on Macroparameters of Flat-Jointed Bonded-Particle Materials and Suggestions on Trial-and-Error Method

The aims of this paper are to analyze the effects of microparameters on macroparameters of flat-jointed bonded-particle materials of particle flow code in two dimensions (PFC2D) and improve the efficiency of trial-and-error method in calibration of microparameters. The trial-and-error method is always used to calibrate the microparameters for a PFC2D model, but it is time-consuming and empirical. To improve the efficiency of the trial-and-error method, the effects of microparameters on macroparameters need to be analyzed. By using the trial-and-error method, a desirable set of microparameters for a uniaxial compression PFC2D model (with a flat-joint contact model as the contact model) of limestone were calibrated to match the macroscopic properties obtained from laboratory tests. Based on the calibration set of microparameters, effects of microparameters on macroparameters of the PFC2D model were studied by the orthogonal design method. On this basis, a flowchart of calibrating microparameters via trial-and-error method was proposed. This flowchart was used to calibrate the microparameters of granite. The macroparameters and failure characteristics determined from numerical simulation were very similar to those of laboratory tests, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed flowchart.     

Investigation of Various Parameters Effect on Cerchar Abrasivity Index with PFC3D Modeling

The Cerchar test is one of the appropriate and routine tests for determining the rock abrasion; but as for the costs and pin wear measurement errors in laboratory procedures and lack of access to laboratory equipment, using of numerical modeling can lead to use of greater number of samples required during the course of mechanized excavation and reduce the costs and errors in the laboratory test. In this study, the Cerchar abrasivity test was modeled using PFC3D (Particle Flow Code in 3 Dimensions) software. In order to verify the simulation results, Cerchar laboratory test results obtained by Rostami (Rock Mech Rock Eng 47(5):1905–1919, 2014) were compared with the numerical modeling results. In modeling studies, the effects of some parameters such as apply load, test speed, pin hardness and scratching distance on pin wear were investigated. As a conclusion of the study, good agreement between modeling and experimental results was obtained for a given condition. As in the experiment with various loads in both laboratory tests and modeling, with increasing applied load the Cerchar abrasivity index also increased in the experiment with Rockwell hardness HRC (An abbreviation for Rockwell Hardness measured on the C scale. The Rockwell test determines the hardness by measuring the depth of penetration of an indenter under a large load compared to the penetration made by a preload, that on the C scale use from a indenter with 120° cone and 150 kgf load) 42.     

The practice of Integrated Water Resources Management in South Africa: challenges of women in water user associations

South Africa’s National Water Act and National Water Resource Strategy set out an ambitious societal vision with a strong focus on the redistribution of water resources towards the marginalised and on empowering historically disadvantaged communities including women. This vision is reflected in the framework for Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) that acknowledges women as pivotal in water management practices. Based on this premise, this paper examines the challenges women face in performing their roles in IWRM in rural South Africa. It draws on a study of a water user association that operates in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. The design of the study was qualitative in nature with a semi-structured interview as the main data collection tool. The interview involved 14 respondents from Limpopo. The results showed marked gender difference in terms of roles performed. Based on the study, three kinds of roles were revealed: domestic, productive and decision-making roles. Men were significantly involved in productive roles, giving low priority to domestic roles. The key factors found to affect the role of women in decision-making in IWRM were cultural practices, low self-confidence, low levels of capacity, and high workloads. These factors were identified as key institutional inherent within the specific society. As such, these findings have significant implications for the efforts aimed at promoting gender equality. Particularly, the impact of culture on women in water management raises concerns regarding gender issues in rural and remote areas where people are poorer and more culturally conservative.     

A Workflow for Static Reservoir Modeling Guided by Seismic Data in a Fluvial System

Realistic and accurate static geologic models are an essential element needed to predict the behavior of subsurface reservoirs and play an important role in petroleum engineering. Data used in the development of a static geologic model are gathered from various sources, such as seismic, log, and core data, each of them providing information on different physical properties of interest and with varying degrees of resolution. Compiling all data from various sources into a single representation of the subsurface formation of interest is a daily challenge for many petroleum geologists and engineers. This paper describes a framework to develop and select process-mimicking models that are consistent with available seismic attributes, namely impedance. Using a process-mimicking modeling package, 75 models of a fluvial meandering system are generated, one of which is chosen as the “true” model and masked thereafter. The implemented selection method relies on the degree of similarity in the histogram of representations of clusters of all possible patterns in the seismic impedance domain based on each process-mimicking model and that of the “true” model at several resolutions. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the use of a weighted average divergence distance across multiple levels to select process-mimicking models that honor seismic data the best.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model

Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socio-economic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams.     

Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies

The constant threat from landslides in the northeastern part of Istria, Croatia, calls for the need to apply accurate and reliable methods in landslide hazard assessment in order to prevent landslide damage and to set an early warning system if necessary. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment enable optimal area management and regional urban planning. The study area is in the northeastern and central part of the Istrian Peninsula, well known as an area of frequent, small and shallow slope instability phenomena. Landslide susceptibility assessment in the area around the city of Buzet was performed using a deterministic landslide susceptibility model in the LS-RAPID software. LS-RAPID was developed to analyze stability at one single location, but the performed analysis has shown that LS-RAPID can be used as a powerful tool in landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment on regional scale. The objective of this paper is to establish the influence of the runout potential on the enlargement of the landslide-susceptible zones, due to expansion of the failure area around the initial failure zone. Performed analysis of rainfall return periods shows the frequency of landslide occurrence and provides the possible correlation with the time component of landslide hazard in the area.