Post‐processing of medium‐range probabilistic hydrological forecasting: impact of forcing,initial conditions and model errors

The impact of errors in the forcing, errors in the model structure and parameters, and errors in the initial conditions is investigated in a simple hydrological ensemble prediction system. The hydrological model is based on an input nonlinearity connected with a linear transfer function and forced by precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The post‐processing of the precipitation and/or the streamflow using information from the reforecasts performed by ECMWF is tested. For this purpose, hydrological reforecasts are obtained by forcing the hydrological model with the precipitation from the reforecast data. In the present case study, it is found that the post‐processing of the hydrological ensembles with a statistical model fitted on the hydrological reforecasts improves the verification scores better than the use of post‐processed precipitation ensembles. In the case of large biases in the precipitation, combining the post‐processing of both precipitation and streamflow allows for further improvements. During the winter, errors in the initial conditions have a larger impact on the scores than errors in the model structure as designed in the experiments. Errors in the parameter values are largely corrected with the post‐processing. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Theoretical investigation of interstellar C–C–O and C–O–C bonding backbone molecules

There are numerous complex organic molecules containing carbon and oxygen atoms which show either C–C–O or C–O–C bonding backbone. This paper examines altogether 51 C–C–O and C–O–C bonding backbone molecules from ten different isomeric groups (C₂H₂O, C₃H₂O, C₂H₄O, C₂H₄O₂, C₃H₄O, C₂H₆O, C₂H₆O₂, C₃H₆O, C₃H₆O₂, C₃H₈O) to summarize the present astronomical status of these molecules. Accurate calculations of enthalpy of formation of these molecules show that the isomers with C–C–O backbone are more stable than the C–O–C backbone. Interestingly, a detailed analysis of relevant astromolecules indicates that most of the observed astromolecules have the C–C–O backbone. As a matter of fact, of all the molecules examined in this study, 80% of the astronomically observed species have the C–C–O backbone while only 20% have the C–O–C backbone. In general, interstellar abundance of a molecule is controlled by some factors such as kinetics, formation and destruction pathways,thermodynamics etc. A proper consideration of these factors could explain the observed abundances of these molecules. All these possible key factors are discussed in this paper.     

Teacher''s Aide Variogram Interpretation and Modeling

The variogram is a critical input to geostatistical studies: (1) it is a tool to investigate and quantify the spatial variability of the phenomenon under study, and (2) most geostatistical estimation or simulation algorithms require an analytical variogram model, which they will reproduce with statistical fluctuations. In the construction of numerical models, the variogram reflects some of our understanding of the geometry and continuity of the variable, and can have a very important impact on predictions from such numerical models. The principles of variogram modeling are developed and illustrated with a number of practical examples. A three-dimensional interpretation of the variogram is necessary to fully describe geologic continuity. Directional continuity must be described simultaneously to be consistent with principles of geological deposition and for a legitimate measure of spatial variability for geostatistical modeling algorithms. Interpretation principles are discussed in detail. Variograms are modeled with particular functions for reasons of mathematical consistency. Used correctly, such variogram models account for the experimental data, geological interpretation, and analogue information. The steps in this essential data integration exercise are described in detail through the introduction of a rigorous methodology.     

Modelling blue and green water availability under climate change in the Beninese Basin of the Niger River Basin,West Africa

The aim of this study was to quantify climate change impact on future blue water (BW) and green water (GW) resources as well as the associated uncertainties for 4 subbasins of the Beninese part of the Niger River Basin. The outputs of 3 regional climate models (HIRHAM5, RCSM, and RCA4) under 2 emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were downscaled for the historical period (1976–2005) and for the future (2021–2050) using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). Comparison of climate variables between these 2 periods suggests that rainfall will increase (1.7% to 23.4%) for HIRHAM5 and RCSM under both RCPs but shows mixed trends (?8.5% to 17.3%) for RCA4. Mean temperature will also increase up to 0.48 °C for HIRHAM5 and RCSM but decrease for RCA4 up to ?0.37 °C. Driven by the downscaled climate data, future BW and GW were evaluated with hydrological models validated with streamflow and soil moisture, respectively. The results indicate that GW will increase in all the 4 investigated subbasins, whereas BW will only increase in one subbasin. The overall uncertainty associated with the evaluation of the future BW and GW was quantified through the computation of the interquartile range of the total number of model realizations (combinations of regional climate models and selected hydrological models) for each subbasin. The results show larger uncertainty for the quantification of BW than GW. To cope with the projected decrease in BW that could adversely impact the livelihoods and food security of the local population, recommendations for the development of adequate adaptation strategies are briefly discussed.     

Fluid-induced high-temperature metasomatism at Rundv?gshetta in the Lützow-Holm Complex,East Antarctica: Implications for the role of brine during granulite formation

We report new petrological, phase equilibria modeling, and fluid inclusion data for pelitic and mafic granulites from Rundv?gshetta in the highest-grade region of the Neoproterozoic Lützow-Holm Complex(LHC),East Antarctica, and provide unequivocal evidence for fluid-rock interaction and high-temperature metasomatism in the presence of brine fluid. The studied locality is composed dominantly of well-foliated pelitic granulite(K-feldspar+quartz+sillimanite+garnet+ilmenite) with foliation-parallel bands and/or layers of mafic granulite(plagioclase+orthopyroxene+garnet+ilmenite+quartz+biotite). The boundary between the two lithologies is defined by thin(about 1 -20 cm in thick) garnet-rich layers with a common mineral assemblage of garnet+plagioclase+quartz+ilmenite+biotite ? orthopyroxene. Systematic increase of grossular and decrease of pyrope contents in garnet as well as decreasing Mg/(Fe+Mg) ratio of biotite from the pelitic granulite to garnet-rich rock and mafic granulite suggest that the garnet-rich layer was formed by metasomatic interaction between the two granulite lithologies. Phase equilibria modeling in the system NCKFMASHTO demonstrates that the metasomatism took place at 850 -860℃, which is slightly lower than the peak metamorphism of this region, and the modal abundance of garnet is the highest along the metapeliteemetabasite boundary(up to 40%), which is consistent with the field and thin section observations. The occurrence of brine(7.0 -10.9 wt.% Na Cleqfor ice melting or 25.1 -25.5 wt.% NaC leqfor hydrohalite melting) fluid inclusions as a primary phase trapped within plagioclase in the garnet-rich layer and the occurrence of Cl-rich biotite(Cl = 0.22 -0.60 wt.%) in the metasomatic rock compared to that in pelitic(0.15 -0.24 wt.%) and mafic(0.06-0.13 wt.%) granulites suggest infiltration of brine fluid could have given rise to the high-temperature metasomatism. The fluid might have been derived from external sources possibly related to the formation of major suture zones formed during the Gondwana amalgamation.     

Stakeholder perspectives on use, trade, and conservation of medicinal plants in the Rasuwa district of central Nepal

People’s livelihood in several Himalayan regions largely depends on collection, use, and trade of medicinal plants. Traditional use is generally not a problem, but commercial gathering of selected species to meet increasing national and international demand can result in over-exploitation. Sustainable management of medicinal plants requires a clear understanding of the respective roles, responsibilities and viewpoints of the various stakeholders involved. Through personal interviews and group discussions, this study aimed at investigating the views of two stakeholder groups on use, trade and conservation of medicinal plants in the Rasuwa district of Nepal. Local people and district and national organizations agreed that medicinal plants are collected for a combination of commercial and personal uses. Perceptions on market availability differed significantly: 100 % of the respondents from district and national organizations saw markets as easily available, against only 36 % for local people. This could explain why medicinal plants were perceived by local people to contribute less to income generation than to livelihood improvement. Different viewpoints were also expressed concerning the status of medicinal plants in the district: 81 % of the respondents from district and national organizations considered that medicinal plants were threatened, compared to only 28 % for local people. Despite this disparity, both stakeholder groups agreed upon potential threats to medicinal plants: over-harvesting; habitat loss due to land-use change and deforestation; and over-grazing by livestock. Several challenges were identified regarding sustainable management of medicinal plants, such as ambiguous policies; lack of resources, information and infrastructures; habitat degradation; and over-exploitation. Despite these challenges, respondents agreed that the medicinal plants sector offers huge opportunities in the Rasuwa district, given resource availability, community awareness and motivation, and the priority given to the sector by governments and other agencies. Proper collaboration, communication and coordination among stakeholders are needed to grab these opportunities.     

Impact of climate change on streamflow in selected river basins in Ghana

Abstract

This study uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and downscaled climate projections from the ensemble of two global climate models (ECHAM4 and CSIRO) forced by the A1FI greenhouse-gas scenario to estimate the impact of climate change on streamflow in the White Volta and Pra river basins, Ghana. The SWAT model was calibrated for the two basins and subsequently driven by downscaled future climate projections to estimate the streamflow for the 2020s (2006–2035) and 2050s (2036–2075). Relative to the baseline, the mean annual streamflow estimated for the White Volta basin for the 2020s and 2050s showed a decrease of 22 and 50%, respectively. Similarly, the estimated streamflow for the 2020s and 2050s for the Pra basin showed a decrease of 22 and 46%, respectively. These results underscore the need to put in place appropriate adaptation measures to foster resilience to climate change in order to enhance water security within the two basins.

Citation Kankam-Yeboah, K., Obuobie, E., Amisigo, B., and Opoku-Ankomah, Y., 2013. Impact of climate change on streamflow in selected river basins in Ghana. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 773–788.