Uncertainty quantification in numerical simulation of particle-laden flows

Numerical models can help to push forward the knowledge about complex dynamic physical systems. Modern approaches employ detailed mathematical models, taking into consideration inherent uncertainties on input parameters (phenomenological parameters or boundary and initial conditions, among others). Particle-laden flows are complex physical systems found in nature, generated due to the (possible small) spatial variation on the fluid density promoted by the carried particles. They are one of the main mechanisms responsible for the deposition of sediments on the seabed. A detailed understanding of particle-laden flows, often referred to as turbidity currents, helps geologists to understand the mechanisms that give rise to reservoirs, strategic in oil exploration. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides a rational framework to assist in this task, by combining sophisticated computational models with a probabilistic perspective in order to deepen the knowledge about the physics of the problem and to access the reliability of the results obtained with numerical simulations. This work presents a stochastic analysis of sediment deposition resulting from a turbidity current considering uncertainties on the initial sediment concentrations and particles settling velocities. The statistical moments of the deposition mapping, like other important features of the currents, are approximated by a Sparse Grid Stochastic Collocation method that employ a parallel flow solver for the solution of the deterministic problems associated to the grid points. The whole procedure is supported and steered by a scientific workflow management engine designed for high performance computer applications.     

Investigating sea-state effects on flash flood hydrograph and inundation forecasting

A common source of uncertainty in flood inundation forecasting is the hydrograph used. Given the role of sea-air-hydro-land chain processes on the water cycle, flood hydrographs in coastal areas can be indirectly affected by sea state. This study investigates sea-state effects on precipitation, discharge, and flood inundation forecasting implementing atmospheric, ocean wave, hydrological, and hydraulic-hydrodynamic coupled models. The Chemical Hydrological Atmospheric Ocean wave System (CHAOS) was used for coupled hydro-meteorological-wave simulations ‘accounting’ or ‘not accounting’ the impact of sea state on precipitation and, subsequently, on flood hydrograph. CHAOS includes the WRF-Hydro hydrological model and the WRF-ARW meteorological model two-way coupled with the WAM wave model through the OASIS3-MCT coupler. Subsequently, the 2D HEC-RAS hydraulic-hydrodynamic model was forced by the flood hydrographs and map the inundated areas. A flash flood event occurred on 15 November 2017 in Mandra, Attica, Greece, causing 24 fatalities, and damages was selected as case study. The calibration of models was performed exploiting historical flood records and previous studies. Human interventions such as hydraulic works and the urban areas were included in the hydraulic modelling geometry domain. The representation of the resistance caused by buildings was based on Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) data while the local elevation rise method was used in the urban-flood simulation. The flood extent results were assessed using the Critical Success Index (CSI), and CSI penalize. Integrating sea-state affected the forecast of precipitation and discharge peaks, causing up to +24% and from −8% to +36% differences, respectively, improving inundation forecast by 4.5% and flooding additional approximately 70 building blocks. The precipitation forcing time step was also highlighted as significant factor in such a small-scale flash flood. The integrated multidisciplinary methodological approach could be adopted in operational forecasting for civil protection applications facilitating the protection of socio-economic activities and human lives during similar future events.     

Stability of Solution Cavities in Urban Developments: A Case Study Towards Enhancing Geohazard Risk Assessment

Karst cavities in fissured soluble rock represent serious geotechnical hazard for civil construction and urban development. The process of cavity formation, expansion, and propagation is difficult to predict because it is driven by a combination of diverse causes, such as the dissolution rate of rock; flow of groundwater; amount of fine material within rock layers; presence of loose, uncontrolled fill over the rock; and the leakage of underground utilities. Several factors can affect cavity stability, including cavity geometry and dimensions, cavity depth, overburden surface-layer lithology, and surface-loading conditions. This paper presents a case study for karst cavities stability in the Abu Dhabi Municipality (ADM) of the United Arab Emirates as part of a comprehensive study initiated by the ADM to address the geotechnical, geologic, and hydrogeological hazards encountered in the municipality. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for assessing karst cavities stability in the ADM, and thereby, quantify their potential hazard for civil construction and urban development in the municipality. A numerical study is performed, using a finite difference model that is based on site-specific ground conditions encountered in a localized area. Results from this numerical investigation are presented in the form of stability charts for different lithologic and surface-loading conditions. These charts are used to develop a set of geographic information system cavity-collapse geohazard maps for the study area to factor solution cavity-collapse risk into an integrated geohazard map for the ADM. Based on available information and the case study presented herein, it is concluded that the collapse of solution cavities do not significantly contribute to the geotechnical hazard observed in the ADM.     

Assessing the impacts of uncontrolled artesian flows on the management of groundwater resources in the Jordan Valley

The deep wells drilled along the eastern escarpment of the Jordan Valley penetrate confined aquifers that produce thermal and mineralized artesian water. Uncontrolled flows from poorly constructed and uncapped artesian wells over the last 30 years have caused the deterioration of the quality of shallow groundwater and surface water. They also have been accelerating the discharge of saline water from deep aquifers and have caused the loss of shallow fresh groundwater resources through the downward percolation of fresh water to replace the extracted deep salty groundwater. A lack of adequate controls on the construction and maintenance of artesian wells is leading to widespread water quality problems in the region, which limits the ability of future generations to access high-quality water, a clear breach of the principle of intergenerational equity.     

Dolomite textures in the Upper Cretaceous carbonate-hosted Pb–Zn deposits,Zakho, Northern Iraq

In the northeast of Zakho City, Northern Iraq, the host rocks of Pb–Zn deposits are composed predominantly of dolomites with subordinate dolomitic limestone intervals. This study is focused on the dolomites of the Bekhme Formation (Upper Campanian) carbonate-hosted Pb–Zn deposits. The amount of dolomites, however, increases toward the mineralized zone. Dolomites are dominated by replacement dolomite with minor dolomite cements. Petrography study allowed identification of six different dolomite textures. These are (1) fine crystalline, planar-s (subhedral) dolomite, RD1; (2) medium to coarse crystalline, planar-e (euhedral) to planar-s (subhedral) dolomites, RD2; (3) medium crystalline, planar-s (subhedral) to nonplanar-a (anhedral) dolomites, RD3; (4) coarse crystalline, planar-s (subhedral) to nonplanar-a (anhedral) dolomites, RD4; (5) planar (subhedral) void-filling dolomite cements, CD1; and (6) nonplanar (saddle) void-filling dolomite, CD2. The RD1, RD2, RD3, and RD4 dolomite textures are replacive in origin and are volumetrically the most important types, whereas CD1 and CD2 dolomites with sparry calcite are commonly cements that fill the open spaces. Although the dolomites of the Bekhme Formation are not macroscopically observed in the field, their different types are easily distinguished by petrographic examination and scanning electron microscopy. It was observed that the dolomites of the Bekhme Formation are formed in two different diagenetic stages: the early diagenetic from mixing zone fluids at the tidal–subtidal (reef) environments and the late diagenetic from basinal brines which partially mixed with hydrothermal fluids at the shallow-deep burial depths. The latter occurs often with sphalerite, galena, and pyrite within mineralized zone. These dolomite types are associated base-metal mineralization (Mississippi Valley type).     

Stable isotope profiles (Ca,O, C) through modern brachiopod shells of T. septentrionalis and G. vitreus: Implications for calcium isotope paleo-ocean chemistry

Brachiopod shells are widely used as an archive to reconstruct elemental and isotopic composition of seawater. Studies, focused on oxygen and carbon isotopes over the last decades, are increasingly extending to the emerging calcium isotope system. To date, only little attention has been paid to test the reliability of fossil brachiopods on their modern counterparts.In this context, the present study investigates two modern brachiopods, Terebratulina septentrionalis (eastern Canada, 5–30 m depth, 7.1 °C seasonal temperature variation, two-layer shell) and Gryphus vitreus (northern Mediterranean, 200 m depth, constant all-year round temperature, three-layer shell). Both species were sampled along the ontogenetic growth direction and calcium, oxygen, and carbon isotopes as well as elemental concentration were measured. Calcium isotopes were analyzed on TIMS. The elemental composition was analyzed by LA-ICP-MS and ICP-AES.The results indicate an intra-specimen δ^44/40Ca variation ranging from 0.16 to 0.33‰, pointing to a fairly homogenous distribution of calcium isotopes in brachiopod shells. However, in the light of the suggested 0.7‰ increase in calcium isotopes over the Phanerozoic such intra-specimen variations constrain ocean reconstruction. δ^44/40Ca values of T. septentrionalis do not seem to be affected by growth rate. Calcium isotopic values of G. vitreus are heavy in the central part of the shell and trend towards lighter values in peripheral areas approaching the maximum isotopic composition of T. septentrionalis. The maximum inter-species δ^44/40Ca difference of 0.62‰ between T. septentrionalis and G. vitreus indicates that care should be taken when using different taxa, species with different strontium content or brachiopods with specialized shell structure, such as G. vitreus, for ocean water reconstruction in terms of Ca isotopic composition. T. septentrionalis may record Ca isotopic fractionation related to seasonal seawater temperature variations in its shell but this is difficult to resolve at the current analytical precision. Average δ¹⁸O-derived temperatures of the two investigated species are close to on-site measured temperatures.     

Quasi-Saturated Layer: Implications for Estimating Recharge and Groundwater Modeling

This study presents an extension of the concept of “quasi-saturation” to a quasi-saturated layer, defined as the uppermost dynamic portion of the saturated zone subject to water table fluctuations. Entrapped air here may cause substantial reductions in the hydraulic conductivity (K) and fillable pore water. Air entrapment is caused by a rising water table, usually as a result of groundwater recharge. The most significant effects of entrapped air are recharge overestimation based on methods that use specific yield (S_y), such as the water table fluctuation method (WTF), and reductions in K values. These effects impact estimation of fluid flow velocities and contaminant migration rates in groundwater. In order to quantify actual groundwater recharge rates and the effects of entrapped air, numerical simulations with the FEFLOW (Version 7.0) groundwater flow model were carried out using a quasi-saturated layer for a pilot area in Rio Claro, Brazil. The calculated recharge rate represented 16% of the average precipitation over an 8-year period, approximately half of estimates using the WTF method. Air entrapment amounted to a fillable porosity of 0.07, significant lower that the value of 0.17 obtained experimentally for S_y. Numerical results showed that the entrapped air volume in the quasi-saturated layer can be very significant (0.58 of the air fraction) and hence can significantly affect estimates of groundwater recharge and groundwater flow rates near the water table.     

Quantitative Benthic Community Structure in Blanca Bay and Its Relationship With Organic Enrichment*

Abstract. A two year benthic sampling program of a 2000 km² area, covering 22 stations, showed a dominance of deposit-feeding polychaetes. The quantitative structure of the three infaunal assemblages was related to a salinity gradient: the inner and outer regions were inhabited by, respectively, mixohaline and euhaline associations, both quantitatively related to granulometric facies of sediment. Species diversity was very low in the inner region, although abundance of opportunistic species was high. In the outer region, abundance and diversity were more stable, with an increasing number of species. A comparison of species number and abundance with Species-Abundance-Biomass curves from enriched environments showed that the inner region of Bianca Bay may be considered as an organically enriched environment. Scoloplos, a species associated with organic enrichment, and dense terebellid belts were present in great abundances in front of sewage outflows. The spatial distribution of heterotrophic bacteria and the bivalves Corbula and Nucula also followed this pattern.     

Evolution of a carbonate delta generated by gateway‐funnelling of episodic currents

Cool‐water carbonate sedimentation has dominated Mediterranean shelves since the Early Pliocene. Skeletal sand and gravel herein consist of remains of heterozoan organisms, which are susceptible to reworking due to weak early cementation in non‐tropical waters. This study documents the Lower Pleistocene carbonate wedge of Favignana Island (Italy), which prograded from a 5   km wide passage between two palaeo‐islands into a perpendicular, 10 to 15   km wide strait between the palaeo‐islands at one side and Sicily at the other during the Emilian highstand (1·6   Ma to 1·1   Ma). The clinoformed carbonate wedge, which is 50   m thick and 6   km long, formed by east/south‐east progradation of a platform on the submarine sill by currents that were funnelled between the two palaeo‐islands. Platform‐slope clinoforms evolved from initial aggradation (thin and low‐angle) into a progradation phase (thick and high‐angle). Both clinoform types are characterized by a bimodal facies stacking pattern defined by sedimentary structures created by: (i) subaqueous dunes associated with dilute subcritical currents; and (ii) upper‐flow‐regime bedforms associated with sediment‐laden supercritical turbidity currents. Focusing of episodic currents on the platform by funnelling between the islands controlled the downstream formation of a sediment body, here named carbonate delta. The carbonate delta interfingers with subaqueous dune deposits formed in the perpendicular strait. This study uses a reconstruction of bedform dynamics to unravel the evolution of this gateway‐related carbonate accumulation.