Spatial reconstruction of rainfall fields from rain gauge and radar data

Rainfall is a phenomenon difficult to model and predict, for the strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity and the presence of many zero values. We deal with hourly rainfall data provided by rain gauges, sparsely distributed on the ground, and radar data available on a fine grid of pixels. Radar data overcome the problem of sparseness of the rain gauge network, but are not reliable for the assessment of rain amounts. In this work we investigate how to calibrate radar measurements via rain gauge data and make spatial predictions for hourly rainfall, by means of Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. We use zero-inflated distributions for taking zero-measurements into account. Several models are compared both in terms of data fitting and predictive performances on a set of validation sites. Finally, rainfall fields are reconstructed and standard error estimates at each prediction site are shown via easy-to-read spatial maps.     

Shaking table tests of a reinforced concrete waffle–flat plate structure designed following modern codes: seismic performance and damage evaluation

Shaking table tests were conducted on a scaled reinforced concrete waffle–flat plate structure. It represented a conventional construction design under current building codes in the Mediterranean area. The test structure was subjected to a sequence of four seismic simulations of increasing magnitude. Each simulation was associated with a seismic hazard level characterized by the mean return period P_R. The test structure performed well for the simulations associated with P_R = 95, 475 and 975 years but collapsed under the maximum considered earthquake of P_R = 2475 years. Damage concentrated at column bases, where the maximum chord rotation reached 93% of the ultimate capacity, and at the transverse beams of the exterior plate‐to‐column connection that failed in torsion. It is shown that most (from 85% to 90%) of the energy input by the earthquake that contributes to damage is dissipated by the plate. The capacity curve of the tested structure estimated from the experimental base shear vs. top displacement relationship allowed us to compute the overstrength (1.4). It is close to the maximum established by European code EN 1998‐1 (1.5). Based on a detailed study of the test results, potential updates to current codes and design recommendations are suggested. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Galactic cosmic rays—clouds effect and bifurcation model of the Earth global climate. Part 2. Comparison of theory with experiment

The solution of energy-balance model of the Earth global climate and the EPICA Dome C and Vostok experimental data of the Earth surface palaeotemperature evolution over past 420 and 740 kyr are compared.In the framework of proposed bifurcation model (i) the possible sharp warmings of the Dansgaard-Oeschger type during the last glacial period due to stochastic resonance is theoretically argued; (ii) the concept of climatic sensitivity of water in the atmosphere, whose temperature instability has the form of so-called hysteresis loop, is proposed, and based on this concept the time series of global ice volume over the past 1000 kyr, which is in good agreement with the time series of δ¹⁸O concentration in the sea sediments, is obtained; (iii) the so-called “CO₂ doubling” problem is discussed.     

Midges of the genus Pseudodiamesa Goetghebuer (Diptera, Chironomidae): current knowledge and palaeoecological perspective

Larvae of the genus Pseudodiamesa Goetghebuer, which includes 12 described valid species and is divided by Makarchenko and Makarchenko (1999) into two species groups, Pseudodiamesa branickii group and Pseudodiamesa nivosa group, are widespread in lakes and running waters of cold, high-latitude and high-altitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Larval remains of the genus are often found in subfossil assemblages from these cold regions, but intra-genus morphotypes usually are not distinguished by palaeoecologists. Current knowledge of the ecology of the species indicates that the Pseudodiamesa nivosa group is more cold-adapted than the Pseudodiamesa branickii group and, therefore, these two intra-genus morphotypes cannot be amalgamated into a larger taxonomic unit without losing substantial information. Here we present the morphological characters of head capsules of Pseudodiamesa larvae attributed to the different species-group morphotypes, which are clearly visible in subfossil specimens. The information summarized in this paper will help provide more reliable chironomid-based palaeoclimatic inferences from lake sediment records covering colder phases through the late Quaternary in the Northern Hemisphere.     

Frequency analysis of the stability of asteroids in the framework of the restricted three-body problem

The stability of some asteroids, in the framework of the restricted three-body problem, has been recently proved in (Celletti and Chierchia, 2003), by developing an isoenergetic KAM theorem. More precisely, having fixed a level of energy related to the motion of the asteroid, the stability can be obtained by showing the existence of nearby trapping invariant tori existing at the same energy level. The analytical results are compatible with the astronomical observations, since the theorem is valid for the realistic mass-ratio of the primaries. The model adopted in (Celletti and Chierchia, 2003), is the planar, circular, restricted three-body model, in which only the most significant contributions of the Fourier development of the perturbation are retained. In this paper we investigate numerically the stability of the same asteroids considered in (Celletti and Chierchia, 2003), (namely, Iris, Victoria and Renzia). In particular, we implement the nowadays standard method of frequency-map analysis and we compare our investigation with the analytical results on the planar, circular model with the truncated perturbing function. By means of frequency analysis, we study the behaviour of the bounding tori and henceforth we infer stability properties on the dynamics of the asteroids. In order to test the validity of the truncated Hamiltonian, we consider also the complete expression of the perturbing function on which we perform again frequency analysis. We investigate also more realistic models, taking into account the eccentricity of the trajectory of Jupiter (planar-elliptic problem) or the relative inclination of the orbits (circular-inclined model). We did not find a relevant discrepancy among the different models.     

Electron Excitation Rates in the Solar Corona for non-Maxwellian Electron Distributions

The influence of electron non-Maxwellian distributions (power and -distribution) on the electron excitation rate in the solar corona is demonstrated. It is shown that the deviations in electron excitation rate are sufficient to affect intensities of spectral lines. As an example the diagnostics of a power-law distribution are demonstrated for a simplified calculation of the resonance lines of Fexxiv, Fexxv and Fexxvi. The results can be used in diagnosing solar flare plasmas, where the deviations of the electron distribution from a Maxwellian distribution can be large.     

Polynomial approximation of Poincaré maps for hamiltonian systems

Different methods are proposed and tested for transforming a nonlinear differential system, and more particularly a hamiltonian one, into a map without having to integrate the whole orbit as in the well known Poincaré map technique. We construct piecewise polynomial maps by coarse-graining the phase surface of section into parallelograms using values of the Poincaré maps at the vertices to define a polynomial approximation within each cell. The numerical experiments are in good agreement with the standard map taken as a model problem. The agreement is better when the number of vertices and the order of the polynomial fit increase. The synthetic mapping obtained is not symplectic even if at vertices there is an exact interpolation. We introduce a second new method based on a global fitting . The polynomials are obtained using at once all the vertices and fitting by least square polynomes but in such a way that the symplectic character is not lost.     

Petrogenetic processes in the ultramafic, alkaline and carbonatitic magmatism in the Kola Alkaline Province: A review

Igneous rocks of the Devonian Kola Alkaline Carbonatite Province (KACP) in NW Russia and eastern Finland can be classified into four groups: (a) primitive mantle-derived silica-undersaturated silicate magmas; (b) evolved alkaline and nepheline syenites; (c) cumulate rocks; (d) carbonatites and phoscorites, some of which may also be cumulates. There is no obvious age difference between these various groups, so all of the magma-types were formed at the same time in a relatively restricted area and must therefore be petrogenetically related. Both sodic and potassic varieties of primitive silicate magmas are present. On major element variation diagrams, the cumulate rocks plot as simple mixtures of their constituent minerals (olivine, clinopyroxene, calcite, etc). There are complete compositional trends between carbonatites, phoscorites and silicate cumulates, which suggests that many carbonatites and phoscorites are also cumulates. CaO / Al₂O₃ ratios for ultramafic and mafic silicate rocks in dykes and pipes range up to 5, indicating a very small degree of melting of a carbonated mantle at depth. Damkjernites appear to be transitional to carbonatites. Trace element modelling indicates that all the mafic silicate magmas are related to small degrees of melting of a metasomatised garnet peridotite source. Similarities of the REE patterns and initial Sr and Nd isotope compositions for ultramafic alkaline silicate rocks and carbonatites indicate that there is a strong relationship between the two magma-types. There is also a strong petrogenetic link between carbonatites, kimberlites and alkaline ultramafic lamprophyres. Fractional crystallisation of olivine, diopside, melilite and nepheline gave rise to the evolved nepheline syenites, and formed the ultramafic cumulates. All magmas in the KACP appear to have originated in a single event, possibly triggered by the arrival of hot material (mantle plume?) beneath the Archaean/Proterozoic lithosphere of the northern Baltic Shield that had been recently metasomatised. Melting of the carbonated garnet peridotite mantle formed a spectrum of magmas including carbonatite, damkjernite, melilitite, melanephelinite and ultramafic lamprophyre. Pockets of phlogopite metasomatised lithospheric mantle also melted to form potassic magmas including kimberlite. Depth of melting, degree of melting and presence of metasomatic phases are probably the major factors controlling the precise composition of the primary melts formed.