Groundwater Level Prediction/Forecasting and Assessment of Uncertainty Using SGS and ARIMA Models: A Case Study in the Bauru Aquifer System (Brazil)

Natural Resources Research - Best water management practices should involve the prediction of the availability of groundwater resources. To predict/forecast and consequently manage these water...     

Environmental impacts and simultaneity of positive and negative storm surges on the coast of the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina

The Argentine shore of the Rio de la Plata estuary and its southwards adjacent maritime front are normally affected by extratropical positive and negative storm surges that affect human activities seriously. Positive surges can raise the water level in the estuary by more than 3 m over the predicted tide; thus, flooding the coastal plain where over 13 million people live and causing extensive property damage. Sometimes, there has been loss of life too. Although less populated than the coastal plain, the maritime front has many important tourist resorts and also undergoes severe beach erosion processes and loss of property owing to positive surges. Negative surges are particularly troublesome in the Rio de la Plata because they critically affect navigation safety and drinking water supply by lowering the predicted water level in an amount that sometimes reached more than 4 m. A remarkable point is that the same storm event can simultaneously give rise to a positive surge on the maritime front and a negative one in the Rio de la Plata. The environmental impacts of positive storm surges are strongly aggravated by human intervention. At the same time, sea level rise due to global climatic change has also its influence.     

Uncertainty Estimate in Resources Assessment: A Geostatistical Contribution

For many decades the mining industry regarded resources/reserves estimation and classification as a mere calculation requiring basic mathematical and geological knowledge. Most methods were based on geometrical procedures and spatial data distribution. Therefore, uncertainty associated with tonnages and grades either were ignored or mishandled, although various mining codes require a measure of confidence in the values reported. Traditional methods fail in reporting the level of confidence in the quantities and grades. Conversely, kriging is known to provide the best estimate and its associated variance. Among kriging methods, Ordinary Kriging (OK) probably is the most widely used one for mineral resource/reserve estimation, mainly because of its robustness and its facility in uncertainty assessment by using the kriging variance. It also is known that OK variance is unable to recognize local data variability, an important issue when heterogeneous mineral deposits with higher and poorer grade zones are being evaluated. Altenatively, stochastic simulation are used to build local or global uncertainty about a geological attribute respecting its statistical moments. This study investigates methods capable of incorporating uncertainty to the estimates of resources and reserves via OK and sequential gaussian and sequential indicator simulation The results showed that for the type of mineralization studied all methods classified the tonnages similarly. The methods are illustrated using an exploration drill hole data sets from a large Brazilian coal deposit.     

A transparent aqueous-saturated sand surrogate for use in physical modeling

This paper presents the geotechnical properties of a new family of synthetic transparent soils made of fused quartz, saturated with a matched refractive index water-based sucrose solution, suitable for modeling the behavior of sand in small-scale model tests. The dry density ranged between 1,134 and 1,358 kg/m³. The peak angle of friction was found to range from 46° to 57°. The average hydraulic conductivity was 1.7 × 10^?5 cm/s. The compressibility index (C _c) ranged from 0.34 to 0.57. The main advantage of fused quartz over available sand surrogates made of silica gel is that its solid structure better models the behavior of natural sand. The matching pore fluids are inert and non-toxic, which facilitates their use in educational settings. The availability of a safe and easy-to-use transparent sand permits measurement of three-dimensional deformation patterns and flow characteristics in controlled research experiments. The introduction of an aqueous solution permits the use of two immiscible pore fluids, one made of mineral oil and the other made of a sucrose solution, for modeling multiphase flow problems, as well as coupled flow-deformation problems.     

Dating Gondwanan continental crust at the Rio Grande Rise,South Atlantic

Crystalline continental rocks and associated crust‐contaminated basaltic rocks were unexpectedly dredged on the crest and at seamounts of the Rio Grande Rise, South Atlantic. Zircon U–Pb ages of one gabbro (ca. 2,200 Ma) and four granitoids (between ca. 1,430–480 Ma) indicate that the breakup of SW Gondwana left behind continental fragments of dominantly African age. These rocks may have been incorporated into the oceanic lithosphere by complex processes including rifting and interaction of the Tristan‐Gough mantle plume with hyperextended continental margins. Until ca. 80–70 Ma, the Rio Grande Rise and an old portion of the Walvis Ridge formed a conjugate pair of aseismic ridges, and the Tristan‐Gough plume was positioned at the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge. The finding of continental rock fragments in one of these conjugate pairs opens new perspectives on the mechanisms of continental break‐up, the nature of this conjugate pair, and the geodynamic evolution of rifted Gondwana margins in the South Atlantic.     

Redundancy and diversity of functional reef fish groups of the Mexican Eastern Pacific

Coral reefs are in crisis worldwide. Fish play a key role in the resilience of reefs because most of the biomass of the ecosystem flows through them. Evidence indicates that the response to stressors will vary markedly depending on the resilience of the ecosystem. In order to assess the functional groups of reef fishes, morphometric and ecomorphological analyses were carried out on the shape and diet of 117 reef fish species from the Mexican Eastern Pacific (MEP) from 23°N to 15°N, spanning the years 2009–2012. Six trophic groups were identified and subdivided into 19 functional groups: (A) detritus and plants consumers, three morphologies; (B) plants and zoobenthos consumers, four morphologies; (C) zoobenthos consumers, two morphologies; (D) zoobenthos and zooplankton consumers, three morphologies; (E) zooplankton and nekton consumers, three morphologies; and (F) nekton consumers, four morphologies. Our main conclusions are: (i) fish communities of the MEP have a high degree of ecological redundancy; (ii) fish diversity is not related to the coral cover; and (iii) the combination of using both morphology and diet produce a more effective classification of functional groups. Future studies such as these will allow a deeper understanding of environment and it will help illuminate the effects of fish morphology and diet on population structure.     

Spatial variability of phytoplankton absorption coefficients and pigments off Baja California during November 2002

We have estimated the spatial variability of phytoplankton specific absorption coefficients (a* _ph ) in the water column of the California Current System during November 2002, taking into account the variability in pigment composition and phytoplankton community structure and size. Oligotrophic conditions (surface Chl < 0.2 mg m⁻³) dominated offshore, while mesotrophic conditions (surface Chl 0.2 to 2.0 mg m⁻³) where found inshore. The specific absorption coefficient at 440 [a* _ph (440)] ranged from 0.025–0.281 m²mg⁻¹ while at 675 nm [a* _ph (675)] it varied between 0.014 and 0.087 m²mg⁻¹. The implementation of a size index based on HPLC data showed the community structure was dominated by picoplankton. This would reduce the package effect in the variability of a* _ph (675). Normalized a _ph curves were classified in two groups according to their shape, separating all spectra with peaks between 440 and 550 nm as the second group. Most samples in the first group were from surface layers, while the second group were from the deep chlorophyll maximum or deeper. Accessory photoprotective pigments (APP) tended to decrease with depth and accessory photosynthetic pigments (APS) to increase, indicating the importance of photoprotective mechanisms in surface layers and adaptation to low light at depth. Samples with higher ratios of APP:APS (>0.4) were considered as phytoplankton adapted to high irradiances, and lower ratios (<0.26) as adapted to low irradiances. We found a good relationship between APP:APS and a* _ph (440) for the deeper layer (DCM and below), but no clear evidence of the factors causing the variability of a* _ph (440) in the upper layer.     

The barnacle Balanus amphitrite as a bioindicator for Cd: Development and application of a simulation model

The efficacy of the barnacle Balanus amphitrite as a bioindicator for Cd in the environment was investigated through simulation exercises in an ecotoxicological simulation model based on field data. The study showed in general that B. amphitrite is a good bioindicator to record mean trends of the Cd bioavailability in the environment. The model correct reflected differences between high and low patterns of Cd concentrations in the barnacle in the field, but it did not accurately reflect short-term temporal variations. A model investigation pointed out three issues that must be taken into account when using B. amphitrite as bioindicator for Cd bioavailability in the environment: (1) variations in the mean weight of the sampled population may affect the barnacle's Cd concentration determination, specially if a size effect for the metal concentration in the organism is not detected; (2) a sampling effort approximately 5 times greater than that of usually applied in such studies would be required to detect an environmental change that caused a realistic increase in the main source of Cd to the barnacle; and (3) barnacle tissue better responds to long-term changes in the Cd level of its sources.     

Vegetation response to rainfall seasonality and interannual variability in tropical dry forests

Projected changes in rainfall seasonality and interannual variability are expected to have severe impacts on arid and semi‐arid tropical vegetation, which is characterized by a fine‐tuned adaptation to extreme rainfall seasonality. To study the response of these ecosystems and the related changes in hydrological processes to changes in the amount and seasonality of rainfall, we focused on the caatinga biome, the typical seasonally dry forest in semi‐arid Northeast Brazil. We selected four sites across a gradient of rainfall amount and seasonality and analysed daily rainfall and biweekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for hydrological years 2000 to 2014. Rainfall seasonal and interannual statistics were characterized by recently proposed metrics describing duration, timing and intensity of the wet season and compared to similar metrics of NDVI time series. The results show that the caatinga tends to have a more stable response with longer and less variable growing seasons (3.1 ± 0.1 months) compared to the duration wet seasons (2.0 ± 0.5 months). The ecosystem ability to buffer the interannual variability of rainfall is also evidenced by the stability in the timing of the growing season compared to the wet season, which results in variable delays (ranging from 0 to 2 months) between the peak of the rainfall season and the production of leaves by the ecosystem. The analyses show that the shape and size of the related hysteresis loops in the rainfall–NDVI relations are linked to the buffering effects of soil moisture and plant growth dynamics. Finally, model projections of vegetation response to different rainfall scenarios reveal the existence of a maximum in ecosystem productivity at intermediate levels of rainfall seasonality, suggesting a possible trade‐off in the effects of intensity (i.e. amount) and duration of the wet season on vegetation growth and related soil moisture dynamics and transpiration rates. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.