Dynamic modeling of forest conversion: Simulation of past and future scenarios of rural activities expansion in the fringes of the Xingu National Park,Brazilian Amazon

The present work is committed to simulate the expansion of agricultural and cattle raising activities within a watershed located in the fringes of the Xingu National Park, Brazilian Amazon. A spatially explicit dynamic model of land cover and land use change was used to provide both past and future scenarios of forest conversion into such rural activities, aiming to identify the role of driving forces of change in the study area. The employed modeling platform – Dinamica EGO – consists in a cellular automata environment that embodies neighborhood-based transition algorithms and spatial feedback approaches in a stochastic multi-step simulation framework. Biophysical variables and legal restrictions drove this simulation model, and statistical validation tests were then conducted for the generated past simulations (from 2000 to 2005), by means of multiple resolution fitting methods. Based on optimal calibration of past simulations, future scenarios were conceived, so as to figure out trends and spatial patterns of forest conversion in the study area for the year 2015. In all simulated scenarios, pasturelands remained nearly stable throughout the analyzed period, while a large expansion in croplands took place. The most optimistic scenario indicates that more than 50% of the natural forest will be replaced by either cropland or pastureland by 2015. This modeling experiment revealed the suitability of the adopted model to simulate processes of forest conversion. It also indicates its possible further applicability in generating simulations of deforestation for areas with expanding rural activities in the Amazon and in tropical forests worldwide.     

Coast sea level and Asian monsoon system a downscaling exercise for Chinese coast

In this study, the authors examined the relationship between monthly sea level data and concurrent large-scale monthly mean sea level pressure and SST data for 1960 to 1990, which are reasonably well simulated by present day climate models; sea level variations due to variations of regional atmospheric forcing and oceanic circulation, are not adequately simulated by a global climate model because of insufficient spatial resolution. The authours applied a statistical “down scaling” strategy to sea level along the Chinese coast. Two interrelated processes were identified: one process is the local wind or wave set-up of water due to Asian monsoon wind anomalies; the other is the rainfall diluting effect in spring. At interdecadal time scale, the later becomes more important and most likely plays a major role in the planetary scale atmosphere-ocean interaction taking place in the eastern North Pacific. Contribution No. 3236 from the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Key project 39630060 and Project 49476274 supported by NSFC, and also supported by president's fund of Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

Effects of ultraviolet radiation on the abundance,diversity and activity of bacterioneuston and bacterioplankton: insights from microcosm studies

The effects of ultraviolet-B (0.4 W m⁻²) radiation on the abundance, diversity and heterotrophic metabolism of bacterioneuston and bacterioplankton communities from Ria de Aveiro (Portugal) were assessed and compared to those of freshwater communities from Lake Vela (Portugal) in microcosm experiments. Exposure to 9 h of artificial ultraviolet radiation (UVR) led to 24–33% reduction in bacterial abundance and up to a 70% decrease in bacterial diversity. Maximum extracellular enzyme activity and monomer incorporation rates were reduced by 16–90% and 80–100%, respectively. Recovery of bacterial activity during post-UV dark incubations ranged from 10 to 100% for extracellular enzyme activity and 40% for monomer incorporation rates. In general, the heterotrophic activity of bacterioneuston was more inhibited by UVR than that of bacterioplankton. However, DGGE profiles revealed greater UVR-induced reductions in the diversity of bacterioplankton compared to bacterioneuston. The similarity between bacterioneuston and bacterioplankton communities in samples collected at early morning was lower than at noon (pre-exposed communities) and increased upon experimental irradiation, possibly indicating selection for UV-resistant bacteria. The observation that UV exposure resulted in enhanced reduction of bacterioneuston activity, but a lower reduction in bacterial diversity accompanied by enhanced dark recovery potential compared to bacterioplankton, indicates re-directioning of bacterioneuston metabolism towards stress defence/recovery strategies rather than the sustained heterotrophic metabolism. Our results indicate that UVR can significantly decrease the abundance, diversity and activity of bacteria inhabiting the surface and sub-surface layers of freshwater and estuarine systems with potentially important impacts on the biogeochemical cycles in these environments.     

Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

This study evaluated the effects of climate change on sugarcane yield, water use efficiency, and irrigation needs in southern Brazil, based on downscaled outputs of two general circulation models (PRECIS and CSIRO) and a sugarcane growth model. For three harvest cycles every year, the DSSAT/CANEGRO model was used to simulate the baseline and four future climate scenarios for stalk yield for the 2050s. The model was calibrated for the main cultivar currently grown in Brazil based on five field experiments under several soil and climate conditions. The sensitivity of simulated stalk fresh mass (SFM) to air temperature, CO₂ concentration [CO₂] and rainfall was also analyzed. Simulated SFM responses to [CO₂], air temperature and rainfall variations were consistent with the literature. There were increases in simulated SFM and water usage efficiency (WUE) for all scenarios. On average, for the current sugarcane area in the State of São Paulo, SFM would increase 24 % and WUE 34 % for rainfed sugarcane. The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil. Considering the current technological improvement rate, projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 t?ha^?1, which are respectively 15 and 59 % higher than the current state average yield.     

Relicts of an intra-oceanic arc in the Sapi-Shergol mélange zone (Ladakh, NW Himalaya, India): implications for the closure of the Neo-Tethys Ocean

In the Ladakh–Zanskar area, relicts of both ophiolites and paleo-accretionary prism have been preserved in the Sapi-Shergol mélange zone. The paleo-accretionary prism, related to the northward subduction of the northern Neo-Tethys beneath the Ladakh Asian margin, mainly consists of tectonic intercalations of sedimentary and blueschist facies rocks. Whole rock chemical composition data provide new constraints on the origin of both the ophiolitic and the blueschist facies rocks. The ophiolitic rocks are interpreted as relicts of the south Ladakh intra-oceanic arc that were incorporated in the accretionary prism during imbrication of the arc. The blueschist facies rocks were previously interpreted as oceanic island basalts (OIB), but our new data suggest that the protolith of some of the blueschists is a calc-alkaline igneous rock that formed in an arc environment. These blueschists most likely originated from the south Ladakh intra-oceanic arc. This arc was accreted to the southern margin of Asia during the Late Cretaceous and the buried portion was metamorphosed under blueschist facies conditions. Following oceanic subduction, the external part of the arc was obducted to form the south Ladakh ophiolites or was incorporated into the Sapi-Shergol mélange zone. The incorporation of the south Ladakh arc into the accretionary prism implies that the complete closure of the Neo-Tethys likely occurred by Eocene time.     

Probabilistic estimation of maximum inelastic displacement demands for performance‐based design

A probabilistic approach to estimate maximum inelastic displacement demands of single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems is presented. By making use of the probability of exceedance of maximum inelastic displacement demands for given maximum elastic spectral displacement and the mean annual frequency of exceedance of elastic spectral ordinates, a simplified procedure is proposed to estimate mean annual frequencies of exceedance of maximum inelastic displacement demands. Simplifying assumptions are thoroughly examined and discussed. Using readily available elastic seismic hazard curves the procedure can be used to compute maximum inelastic displacement seismic hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra of maximum inelastic displacement demands. The resulting maximum inelastic displacement demand spectra provide a more rational way of establishing seismic demands for new and existing structures when performance‐based approaches are used. The proposed procedure is illustrated for elastoplastic SDOF systems having known‐lateral strength located in a region of high seismicity in California. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Greenhouse gas emission associated with sugar production in southern Brazil

Background  

Since sugarcane areas have increased rapidly in Brazil, the contribution of the sugarcane production, and, especially, of the sugarcane harvest system to the greenhouse gas emissions of the country is an issue of national concern. Here we analyze some data characterizing various activities of two sugarcane mills during the harvest period of 2006-2007 and quantify the carbon footprint of sugar production.     

Estimating the redshift distribution of photometric galaxy samples – II. Applications and tests of a new method

In Lima et al. we presented a new method for estimating the redshift distribution,   N ( z )  , of a photometric galaxy sample, using photometric observables and weighted sampling from a spectroscopic subsample of the data. In this paper, we extend this method and explore various applications of it, using both simulations and real data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). In addition to estimating the redshift distribution for an entire sample, the weighting method enables accurate estimates of the redshift probability distribution,   p ( z )  , for each galaxy in a photometric sample. Use of   p ( z )  in cosmological analyses can substantially reduce biases associated with traditional photometric redshifts, in which a single redshift estimate is associated with each galaxy. The weighting procedure also naturally indicates which galaxies in the photometric sample are expected to have accurate redshift estimates, namely those that lie in regions of photometric-observable space that are well sampled by the spectroscopic subsample. In addition to providing a method that has some advantages over standard photo- z estimates, the weights method can also be used in conjunction with photo- z estimates e.g. by providing improved estimation of   N ( z )  via deconvolution of   N ( z _phot)  and improved estimates of photo- z scatter and bias. We present a publicly available   p ( z )  catalogue for ∼78 million SDSS DR7 galaxies.     

Sedimentation Patterns of Photosynthetic Bacteria Based on Pigment Markers in Meromictic Lake La Cruz (Spain): Paleolimnological Implications

Sedimentation fluxes of photosynthetic pigments and their derivatives, focused on the anoxygenic bacteria populations, were determined in meromictic Lake La Cruz over a three-year period using sediment traps. Bacterial settling occurs in pulses in response to lake dynamics. Two main annual events affect particle settling in Lake La Cruz: (1) Following an event of massive calcium precipitation in summer that caused water whiting, a maximum flux of chlorophyll a and derivatives towards the sediment was registered. Although whiting is accompanied by massive phytoplankton biomass sinking, it was not followed by concomitant photosynthetic bacterial sinking. (2) In contrast, the disruption of the chemocline and the contact of bacterial populations with oxygenated waters during autumn overturn provoked a destruction of the sulfur bacterial plate, causing mass mortality, registered in the settling material as photosynthetic pigments and their derivatives from phototrophic bacteria. Among the bacteriochlorophyll a oxidation products, bacterioviridin (bvir) was detected in high relative abundance in the settled material collected by sediment traps. The much increased flux of bvir after thermal overturn, associated with mass mortality of the purple sulfur bacterium, Amoebobacter purpureus, confirms the suitability of this molecule as a useful paleoindicator of the degree of oxygen exposure experienced by the purple sulfur bacteria population.