Prospective scenarios for water quality and ecological status in Lake Sete Cidades (Portugal): The integration of mathematical modelling in decision processes

The design of alternative strategies for water and ecological quality protection at the Lake Verde of Sete Cidades should be coupled with the assessment of future trophic states. Therefore, a mathematical model was developed to make prospective scenarios to reduce the risk of environmental degradation of the lake, and a modified Psenner scheme was used to characterize P distribution in the sediments. The model was able to describe thermal stratification, nutrient cycling (P, NH₄ and NO₃), dissolved O₂, and phytoplankton dynamics in the water column and adjacent sediment layers. Internal P recycling, resulting from thermal stratification and sediment anoxia, was identified as the main cause for the increase of P concentration in the hypolimnion followed by slow transfer to the epilimnion (about 20 μg/L annual average). Cyanobacteria blooms during spring were explained by the availability of P and increased water temperature verified during this season. The most sensitive model parameter was sediment porosity. This parameter has a direct effect in dissolved O₂ and P profiles and also in phytoplankton biomass. Finally, different water quality restoration scenarios were identified and their effectiveness assessed. Without the adoption of remediation measures (scenario control), Lake Verde water quality would deteriorate with annual average concentrations of total P and phytoplankton biomass (dry matter) reaching 34 μg/L and 2 mg/L, respectively, after 10 years of simulation. The reduction of P loads (scenario PORAL) into the lake would improve water quality comparatively to the scenario control, reducing the annual average concentrations of total P from 34 μg/L to 26 μg/L and of phytoplankton from 2 mg/L down to 1.4 mg/L after 10 years of simulation. In scenario sediments, corresponding to a decrease in the organic content of the sediments, a reduction in the concentrations of total P and phytoplankton is expected in the first two years of simulation, but this effect, would be attenuated throughout the years due to organic matter sedimentation. The best strategy is obtained by combining external and internal measures for P remediation. Finally, it is recommended that the model be used to integrate the results of water quality monitoring and watershed management plans.     

Magmatic Fluid Inclusions from the Zaldivar Deposit, Northern Chile: The Role of Early Metal-bearing Fluids in a Porphyry Copper System

Abstract. The occurrence of a distinct type of multi-solid, highly-saline fluid inclusions, hosted in igneous quartz phe-nocrysts from the Llamo porphyry, in the Zaldivar porphyry copper deposit of northern Chile is documented. Total homoge-nization of the multi-solid type inclusions occurs at magmatic temperatures (over 750C), well above the typical temperatures of hydro thermal fluids (less than 600C) usually recorded in porphyry copper systems. The analysis of this type of fluid inclusions, using a combination of non-destructive microthermometry, Raman and PIXE techniques and the identification of daughter minerals by SEM method, indicates that the trapped fluid was a dense, complex chloride brine in which Cl, Na, K, Fe, Cu, and Mn are dominant. The high chlorine and metal contents indicate that the metals were separated from the crystallizing magma as homogeneous aqueous chloride-rich solutions that represent the primary magmatic fluids exsolved at high temperatures and depth during the crystallization of the parental intrusive.
The multi-solid type inclusion illustrates the mechanism by which ore components are sequestered from the crystallizing parental magma and concentrated in the exsolved magmatic aqueous fluids. These fluids are significant with respect to the origin of porphyry copper deposits, as they are responsible for the first enrichment of metals and represent the precursors of metal-bearing hydrothermal fluids in a porphyry copper system.     

Radiation balance at the surface in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil: diurnal and seasonal variations

The main goal of this work is to describe the diurnal and seasonal variations of the radiation balance components at the surface in the city of S?o Paulo based on observations carried out during 2004. Monthly average hourly values indicate that the amplitudes of the diurnal cycles of net radiation (Q*), downwelling and upwelling shortwave radiation (SW_DW, SW_UP), and longwave radiations (LW_DW, LW_UP) in February were, respectively, 37%, 14%, 19%, 11%, and 5% larger than they were in August. The monthly average daily values indicate a variation of 60% for Q*, with a minimum in June and a maximum in December; 45% for SW_DW, with a minimum in May and a maximum in September; 50% for SW_UP, with a minimum in June and a maximum in September; 13% for LW_DW, with a minimum in July and a maximum in January; and 9% for LW_UP, with a minimum in July and a maximum in February. It was verified that the atmospheric broadband transmissivity varied from 0.36 to 0.57; the effective albedo of the surface varied from 0.08 to 0.10; and the atmospheric effective emissivity varied from 0.79 to 0.92. The surface effective emissivity remained approximately constant and equal to 0.96. The albedo and surface effective emissivity for S?o Paulo agreed with those reported for urban areas in Europe and North America cities. This indicates that material and geometric effects on albedo and surface emissivity in S?o Paulo are similar to ones observed in typical middle latitudes cities. On the other hand, it was found that S?o Paulo city induces an urban heat island with daytime maximum intensity varying from 2.6°C in July (16:00 LT) to 5.5°C in September (15:00 LT). The analysis of the radiometric properties carried out here indicate that this daytime maximum is a primary response to the seasonal variation of daily values of net solar radiation at the surface.     

Drivers of peatland water table dynamics in the central Andes,Bolivia and Peru

Cushion plant dominated peatlands are key ecosystems in tropical alpine regions of the Andes in South America. The cushion plants have formed peat bodies over thousands of years that fill many valley bottoms, and the forage produced by the plants is critical for native and nonnative domesticated mammals. The sources and flow paths of water supporting these peatlands remain largely unknown. Some studies have suggested that glacier meltwater streams support some peatlands, and that the ongoing loss of glaciers and their meltwaters could lead to the loss or diminishment of peatlands. We analysed the hydrologic regime of 10 peatlands in four mountain regions of Bolivia and Peru using groundwater monitoring. Groundwater levels in peatlands were relatively stable and within 20 cm of the ground surface during the rainy season, and many sites had water tables 40–90 cm below the ground surface in the dry season. Topographic and groundwater elevations in the peatlands demonstrated that the water source of all 10 peatlands was hillslope groundwater flowing from lateral moraines, talus, colluvium, or bedrock aquifers into the peatlands. There was little to no input from streams, whether derived from glacier melt or other sources, and glacier melt could not have recharged the hillslope aquifers supporting peatlands. We measured the stable water isotopes in water samples taken during different seasons, distributed throughout the catchments, and the values are consistent with this interpretation. Our findings indicate that peatlands in the study region are recharged by hillslope groundwater discharge rather than stream water and may not be as vulnerable to glacial decline as other studies have indicated. However, both glaciers and peatlands are susceptible to changing thermal and precipitation regimes that could affect the persistence of peatlands.     

Inverse modeling of coastal aquifers using tidal response and hydraulic tests

Remediation of contaminated aquifers demands a reliable characterization of hydraulic connectivity patterns. Hydraulic diffusivity is possibly the best indicator of connectivity. It can be derived using the tidal response method (TRM), which is based on fitting observations to a closed-form solution. Unfortunately, the conventional TRM assumes homogeneity. The objective of this study was to overcome this limitation and use tidal response to identify preferential flowpaths. Additionally, the procedure requires joint inversion with hydraulic test data. These provide further information on connectivity and are needed to resolve diffusivity into transmissivity and storage coefficient. Spatial variability is characterized using the regularized pilot points method. Actual application may be complicated by the need to filter tidal effects from the response to pumping and by the need to deal with different types of data, which we have addressed using maximum likelihood methods. Application to a contaminated artificial coastal fill leads to flowpaths that are consistent with the materials used during construction and to solute transport predictions that compare well with observations. We conclude that tidal response can be used to identify connectivity patterns. As such, it should be useful when designing measures to control sea water intrusion.     

Evolution of mineralizing fluids in the Zn–Pb–Cu(–Ag ± Au) skarn and epithermal deposits of the world-class San Martín district, Zacatecas, Mexico

Mineralizing fluids at the San Martín skarn show an evolution characterized by prograde and retrograde associations. The prograde mineral associations consist of (1) a massive garnet zone, (2) a tremolite ± garnet zone, and (3) a late association of quartz, sphalerite, calcite and fluorite lining the vugs in the garnet zone. The fluids of the prograde associations exhibit decreasing temperatures of homogenization (Th) and variable salinities. The fluids of the massive garnet zone have salinities of 36 wt.% NaCl equiv. and Th of 645 to 570 °C, corresponding to pressures of 1055 bar. At the tremolite ± garnet zone, Th range from 438 to 354 °C. In the late association at the endoskarn, the following evolution can be drawn: (a) salinities of 50 to 42 wt.% NaCl equiv., and Th of 455 to 346 °C in quartz, (b) salinities of 46 wt.% NaCl equiv., and Th of 415 to 410 °C in sphalerite, (c) salinities of 50 to 37 wt.% NaCl equiv., and Th of 479 to 310 °C in calcite, (d) salinities of 33 to 28 wt.% NaCl equiv. and of 24 to 22 wt.% KCl in fluorite, and (e) two types of fluids with salinities of 2 and 39 wt.% NaCl equiv. and Th 344 and 300 °C, respectively, in later saccharoidal quartz segregations. The retrograde mineral associations comprise pervasive propylitic alteration to carbonization, and mantos with sulfides. Fluids in epidote have salinities of 7.6 wt.% NaCl equiv. and Th of 287 to 252 °C, and in calcite have salinities of 9.2 to 1 wt.% NaCl equiv. and Th of 188 to 112 °C. Fluids in the sulfide assemblages in the mantos have salinities of 8 to 3 wt.% NaCl equiv. and Th 300 °C, with corresponding pressures of 94 bar. Fluids in late epithermal veins close to the intrusive body have salinities of 10 to 5 wt.% NaCl equiv. and Th of 275 to 200 °C, and distal veins show salinities of 2 to 1 wt.% NaCl equiv. and Th of 160 °C.     

Estimating the redshift distribution of photometric galaxy samples – II. Applications and tests of a new method

In Lima et al. we presented a new method for estimating the redshift distribution,   N ( z )  , of a photometric galaxy sample, using photometric observables and weighted sampling from a spectroscopic subsample of the data. In this paper, we extend this method and explore various applications of it, using both simulations and real data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). In addition to estimating the redshift distribution for an entire sample, the weighting method enables accurate estimates of the redshift probability distribution,   p ( z )  , for each galaxy in a photometric sample. Use of   p ( z )  in cosmological analyses can substantially reduce biases associated with traditional photometric redshifts, in which a single redshift estimate is associated with each galaxy. The weighting procedure also naturally indicates which galaxies in the photometric sample are expected to have accurate redshift estimates, namely those that lie in regions of photometric-observable space that are well sampled by the spectroscopic subsample. In addition to providing a method that has some advantages over standard photo- z estimates, the weights method can also be used in conjunction with photo- z estimates e.g. by providing improved estimation of   N ( z )  via deconvolution of   N ( z _phot)  and improved estimates of photo- z scatter and bias. We present a publicly available   p ( z )  catalogue for ∼78 million SDSS DR7 galaxies.     

The evolution of a tropical rainforest/grassland mosaic in southeastern Brazil since 28,000 C yr BP based on carbon isotopes and pollen records

The lack of paleoecological records from the montane Atlantic Rainforest of coastal Brazil, a hotspot of biological diversity, has been a major obstacle to our understanding of the vegetational changes since the last glacial cycle. We present carbon isotope and pollen records to assess the impact of the glaciation on the native vegetation of the Serra do Mar rainforest in São Paulo, Brazil. From ca. 28,000 to  22,000 ¹⁴C yr BP, a subtropical forest with conifer trees is indicative of cool and humid conditions. In agreement carbon isotopic data on soil organic matter suggest the presence of C₃ plants and perhaps C₄ plants from  28,000 to  19,000 ¹⁴C yr BP. The significant increase in the sedimentation rate and algal spores from  19,450 to  19,000 ¹⁴C yr BP indicates increasing humidity, associated to an erosion process between  19,000 and  15,600 ¹⁴C yr BP. From  15,600 ¹⁴C yr BP to present there is a substantial increase in arboreal elements and herbs, indicating more humid and warmer climate. From  19,000 to  1000 ¹⁴C yr BP, δ¹³C values indicated the predominance of C₃ plants. These results are in agreement with studies in speleothems of caves, which suggest humid conditions during the last glacial maximum.     

Photoautotrophic community changes in Lagunillo del Tejo (Spain) in response to lake level fluctuation: Two centuries of sedimentary pigment records

Lagunillo del Tejo is a small doline lake in a karstic region of the Iberian Ranges (central-eastern Spain) that undergoes significant lake level fluctuation in response to changing aquifer influxes. In order to assess changes in the primary producer community in the lake over the last two centuries and to elucidate whether these were conditioned by climatic variability, photosynthetic pigments and their derivatives were extracted from the sediments and the data analysed using multivariate statistical techniques. Quantitative variations in total pigment concentrations through the sedimentary sequence are considered a result of changes in sedimentation rate, largely due to lake level fluctuation. Rapid lowering of the level results in an increase in detritic mineral matter eroded from the sides of the lake, which accumulates in the sediment and dilutes the organic matter content in the corresponding sediment layers. On the other hand, shifts in the relative abundances of the different pigments suggest the development of two different primary producer communities: (i) planktonic, comprising cyanobacteria, chlorophytes, cryptophytes and purple sulfur bacteria and (ii) primary producers related to the littoral environment, mostly submerged macrophytes. These two communities showed alternating relative importance over the last two centuries, as a biotic response to lake level fluctuation during wet and dry periods, respectively.     

Social segregation and academic achievement in state-run elementary schools in the municipality of Campinas, Brazil

Space not only reflects social inequality, it also reinforces the advantages or disadvantages associated with social class. However, the study of how neighbourhoods affect their residents has only recently entered the debate on urban poverty in Latin America. We use 2000 data from the Brazilian population census, school census, and the state of São Paulo’s educational evaluation system to analyze the relationship between school infrastructure, school academic achievement, and the neighbourhoods in which these schools are located. Our analyses indicate that state-run elementary schools located in areas of concentrated poverty have lower academic achievement in mathematics tests and Portuguese than mixed and affluent areas of the city, even though these schools are all administered by the same government body. We end with a discussion of the relationship between Brazilian education policy and its influence on spatial differences in São Paulo State.