Bridging a seasonal torrent: The Melfa river,southern Lazio,Italy

The Melfa River is a torrent of the intramontane Lower Liri Valley, which has been a difficult barrier to cross since ancient times. It is dry and can be forded during the summer, but it experiences high floods during rainy reasons, with recurrent disruption of bridges. In Iron Age and early Roman times, fords and bridges were located near the confluence of the river with the valley plain, servicing the ancient Via Pedemontana. Later, faster routes with bridges were moved toward the flatter central area of the valley. There, Romans selected a crossing through wide braided reaches, taking advantage of fording, but consistently losing low lying, long bridges. Traces of one and possibly two such bridges remain along what was the Via Latina, from Fregellae to Aquino. For such bridges, the Romans used relatively strong piers, probably linked with readily detachable (by floods) and replaceable, wooden, flat roadways. The strategy of Medieval and Modern civilizations was instead to bridge the river in a more permanent way, with arches across the nearby deep gorges whose banks are composed of stable calcareous conglomerates and sandstones.     

A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.     

Polarimetry of main belt asteroids: Wavelength dependence

New UBVRI polarimetric observations of ten asteroids, including space mission targets 1 Ceres and 21 Lutetia, are presented. These observations were obtained with the 1.25-m telescope of the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory and have been used to study the wavelength dependence of polarization for a sample of asteroids belonging to the M and low albedo classes. A more general analysis including also a larger data set of UBVRI polarimetric observations available in the literature for more than 50 main belt asteroids belonging to different taxonomic classes shows that the variation of the polarization degree Pr as a function of wavelength is generally well described by a linear trend. It typically does not exceed 0.2% in the studied spectral range 0.37-0.83 microns and tends to increase for increasing phase angle. Asteroids belonging to the S and M classes are found to exhibit a deeper negative branch and smaller positive polarization for increasing wavelength (negative sign of the slope of ΔPr/Δλ). Since the objects belonging to these classes are known to exhibit reddish reflectance spectra, the observed wavelength behavior of negative polarization contradicts the well-known inverse correlation of Pmin and albedo. Low albedo asteroids show larger dispersion of spectral slopes, but the overall trend is characterized by a shallower negative branch and a larger positive polarization for increasing wavelength (positive sign of the slope of ΔPr/Δλ). A few exceptions from this general trend are discussed. The observed variety in the wavelength dependence of asteroid polarization seems to be mainly attributed to surface composition.     

On asymmetries of solar spectral lines

The profiles of 43 lines have been observed at the centre and near the limb of the solar disk. Their asymmetry decreases towards the limb, and increases with the equivalent width and the mean heigth of line formation; no relation was found between the asymmetry and the line excitation potential, nor with the degree of ionization, nor with the usually adopted macroturbulent velocity. The asymmetry appears to be due to radial movements.     

Climate change scenarios for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration over central Belgium

In this article, we examine climate model estimations for the future climate over central Belgium. Our analysis is focused mainly on two variables: potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation. PET is calculated using the Penman equation with parameters appropriately calibrated for Belgium, based on RCM data from the European project PRUDENCE database. Next, we proceed into estimating the model capacity to reproduce the reference climate for PET and precipitation. The same analysis for precipitation is also performed based on GCM data from the IPCC AR4 database. Then, the climate change signal is evaluated over central Belgium using RCM and GCM simulations based on several SRES scenarios. The RCM simulations show a clear shift in the precipitation pattern with an increase during winter and a decrease during summer. However, the inclusion of another set of SRES scenarios from the GCM simulations leads to a less clear climate change signal.     

Linking hydrological, infinite slope stability and land-use change models through GIS for assessing the impact of deforestation on slope stability in high Andean watersheds

In the Ecuadorian Andes, episodic slope movements comprising shallow rotational and translational slides and rapid flows of debris and soil material are common. Consequently, not only considerable financial costs are experienced, but also major ecological and environmental problems arise in a larger geographical area. Sediment production by slope movement on hillslopes directly affects sediment transport and deposition in downstream rivers and dams and morphological changes in the stream channels. In developing countries world-wide, slope movement hazards are growing: increasing population pressure and economic development force more people to move to potentially hazardous areas, which are less suitable for agriculture and rangelands.This paper describes the methods used to determine the controlling factors of slope failure and to build upon the results of the statistical analysis a process-based slope stability model, which includes a dynamic soil wetness index using a simple subsurface flow model. The model provides a time-varying estimate of slope movement susceptibility, by linking land-use data with spatially varying hydrologic (soil conductivity, evapotranspiration, soil wetness) and soil strength properties. The slope stability model was applied to a high Andean watershed (Gordeleg Catchment, 250 ha, southern Ecuadorian Andes) and was validated by calculating the association coefficients between the slope movement susceptibility map of 2000 and the spatial pattern of active slope movements, as measured in the field with GPS. The proposed methodology allows assessment of the effects of past and future land-use change on slope stability. A realistic deforestation scenario was presented: past land-use change includes a gradual fragmentation and clear cut of the secondary forests, as observed over the last four decades (1963–2000), future land-use change is simulated based on a binary logistic deforestation model, whereby it was assumed that future land-use change would continue at the same rate and style as over the last 37 years (1963–2000).     

Groundwater optimization model for sustainable management of the Valley of Puebla aquifer, Mexico

The Valley of Puebla aquifer (VPA), at the central region of Mexico, is subject to intensive exploitation to satisfy the urban and industrial demand in the region. As a result of this increased exploitation, a number of state and federal agencies in charge of water management are concerned about the problems associated with the aquifer (decline of groundwater table, deterioration in water quality, poor well productivity and increased pumping and water treatment costs). This study presents a groundwater management model that combines “MODFLOW” simulation with optimization tools “MODRSP”. This simulation–optimization model for groundwater evaluates a complex range of management options to identify the strategies that best fit the objectives for allocating resources in the VPA. Four hypothetical scenarios were defined to analyze the response of the hydrogeological system for future pumping schemes. Based on the simulation of flow with the MODFLOW program, promising results for the implementation of the optimization of water quantity were found in scenarios 3 and 4. However, upon comparison and analysis of the feasibility of recovery of the piezometric level (considering the policy of gradual reductions of pumping), scenario 4 was selected for optimization purposes. The response functions of scenario 4 were then obtained and optimized, establishing an extraction rate of 204.92 millions of m³/year (Mm³/year). The reduction in groundwater extraction will be possible by substituting the volume removed by 35 wells (that should be discontinued) by the same volume of water from another source.