Runoff quality prediction from small urban catchments using SWMM

The RUNOFF block of EPA's storm water management model (SWMM) was used to simulate the quantity and quality of urban storm water runoff from four relatively small sites (i.e. 5·97–23·56 ha) in South Florida, each with a specific predominant land use (i.e. low density residential, high density residential, highway and commercial). The objectives of the study were to test the applicability of this model in small subtropical urban catchments and provide modellers with a way to select appropriate input parameters to be used in planning studies. A total of 58 storm events, measured by the US Geological Survey (USGS), provided hyetographs, hydrographs and pollutant loadings for biological oxygen demand (BOD₅), total suspended solids (TSS), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) and lead (Pb), and were used for calibration of the model. Several other catchment characteristics, also measured or estimated by USGS, were used in model input preparation. Application of the model was done using the Green–Ampt equation for infiltration loss computation, a pollutant accumulation equation using a power build-up equation dependent on the number of dry days, and a power wash-off equation dependent on the predicted runoff rate. Calibrated quantity input parameters are presented and compared with suggested values in the literature. The impervious depression storage was generally found to be the most sensitive calibration parameter, followed by the Manning's roughness coefficients of conduit and overland flow, the Green–Ampt infiltration parameters and, finally, the pervious depression storage. Calibrated quality input parameters are presented in the form of regression equations, as a function of rainfall depth and the number of antecedent dry days. A total of 16 independent rainfall events were used for verification of the model, which showed a good comparison with observed data for both hydrographs and pollutant loadings. Average model predictions for the four constituent concentrations from the verification runs also showed good agreement with NURP published values in Florida and US sites. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decay of a highly eccentric satellite

The re-entry phase of a highly eccentric satellite is discussed. Numerical simulations allowing the prediction of the exact date of re-entry of a highly eccentric satellite are exposed.It is shown that under very particular circumstances the life of the satellite can be extended by a few days. The number of final revolutions of the rapidly contracting orbit depends critically on the air density between 70 km and 100 km.Re-entry of the European scientific satellite HEOS-1 predicted for 28 October, 1975 is near such a situation.     

Paleoceanography of surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico during the late Quaternary

Late Quaternary paleotemperatures and paleosalinities of surface waters of the Gulf of Mexico were estimated using a multivariate statistical analysis of census data of planktonic foraminifera. Two climatic extremes were selected for detailed basinwide study, the climatic optimum 125,000 yr ago and the glacial maximum 18,000 yr ago. In addition, patterns of climatic change were examined in seven piston cores from 127,000 yr ago to the present day. During the climatic optimum 125,000 yr ago temperature distributions in surface waters were similar to those of the present. The 22°C winter isotherm trended northeastward across the central basin and paleotemperatures decreased northward. Summer distributions were nearly homogeneous and ranged between 28° and 29°C. Winter salinities were 1‰ fresher than present values in the northmost Gulf and 0.4‰ fresher in the central basin. Summer salinities were similar during both times. In contrast, during the last glacial maximum temperatures were 1° to 2°C cooler in winter and 1°C cooler in summer, and isotherms formed a circular pattern in the Gulf during both seasons. Salinity was 0.3‰ fresher in winter than at present but 0.6‰ saltier in summer. Conditions deteriorated from the climatic optimum to the glacial maximum. In the Mexico Basin, winter temperatures were 2°C cooler from 75,000 to 45,000 yr ago (Y6 to Y3 Subzones), summer temperatures reached a minimum (3°C cooler) 32,000 yr ago (Y2–Y3 boundary), and seasonality reached minimal values (5°C) from 45,000 to 15,000 yr ago. All three parameters became similar in value to those in the Straits of Florida from 45,000 to 15,000 yr ago, suggesting that the exchange of surface waters was enhanced at this time between the two regions. Summer salinities remained similar to present conditions in the Mexico Basin, whereas, winter salinities increased 2‰ by 32,000 yr ago and then fell 0.5‰ until the glacial maximum ended. The Westerlies may have migrated southward over the Mexico Basin in winter from 32,000 to 15,000 yr ago.     

Facies Structure and Quantitative Parameters of Pleistocene Sediments of the Bering Sea

Lithofacies zoning is described for the first time for the Neo- and Eopleistocene of the Bering Sea. Four lithofacies sedimentation zones are distinguished: (I) terrigenous; (II) siliceous–terrigenous; (III) siliceous, and (IV) volcanoterrigenous ones. Corresponding maps were treated using Ronov volumetric method to quantify sedimentation parameters for distinguished lithofacies zones (subzones) and types of Pleistocene sediments. It was revealed that terrigenous sediments predominate over other sediments. Accumulation of the terrigenous sediments was more intense (by 1.4 times) in the Neopleistocene than in the Eopleistocene. The sedimentation rate of siliceous sediments of the Bowers Ridge in the Eopleistocene was two times higher than in the Neopleistocene.     

Evidence for short term changes in the intensity and spectrum of hard X-rays from Cyg X-1

The paper presents experimental evidence for the existence of fast intensity fluctuations with time scales of the order of a minute in the X-ray emission from Cyg X-1 at energies greater than 29 keV. Spectral variations over time intervals of 20–25 min are also observed in the same energy range. Whereas, similar intensity and spectral fluctuations have been reported earlier at lower energies the observations presented here is the first evidence for the existence of similar fluctuations at high energies.     

Saturation of groundwaters with respect to minerals of the host rocks

Calculations of the saturation of groundwaters with respect to minerals of the rocks hosting these waters indicate that most of the analyzed groundwaters were saturates with respect to calcite, dolomite, and quartz. Brines of chloride-calcic composition were determined to be saturated with respect to calcite, whereas brines of chloride-sodic composition are saturated with respect to dolomite and quartz. The solution was simultaneously saturated with respect to six minerals for the association ankerite-calcite-dolomite-pyrite-quartz-strontianite. An increase in the number of minerals with respect to which solution is saturated is correlated with an increase in the diversity of types of groundwaters and an increase in the runoff rate. The paper proposes possible avenues for searches for relations between hydrogeological and geochemical parameters that make it possible to adapt the thermodynamic models to real geological-hydrogeological conditions. The research was centered on the testing of groundwaters for their saturation with respect to minerals of the rocks hosting these waters. This parameter plays a significant part in forming the geochemical type of natural waters because it reflects the crystallization of a mineral from a solution and, consequently, the removal of an element from the aqueous solution.     

BIBLIOGRAPHIE

Abstract

Time series modelling approaches are useful tools for simulating and forecasting hydrological variables and their change through time. Although linear time series models are common in hydrology, the nonlinear time series model, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, has rarely been used in hydrology and water resources engineering. The GARCH model considers the conditional variance remaining in the residuals of the linear time series models, such as an ARMA or an ARIMA model. In the present study, the advantages of a GARCH model against a linear ARIMA model are investigated using three classes of the GARCH approach, namely Power GARCH, Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH models. A daily streamflow time series of the Matapedia River, Quebec, Canada, is selected for this study. It is shown that the ARIMA (13,1,4) model is adequate for modelling streamflow time series of Matapedia River, but the Engle test shows the existence of heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the ARIMA model. Therefore, an ARIMA (13,1,4)-GARCH (3,1) error model is fitted to the data. The residuals of this model are examined for the existence of heteroscedasticity. The Engle test indicates that the GARCH model has considerably reduced the heteroscedasticity of the residuals. However, the Exponential GARCH model seems to completely remove the heteroscedasticity from the residuals. The multi-criteria evaluation for model performance also proves that the Exponential GARCH model is the best model among ARIMA and GARCH models. Therefore, the application of a GARCH model is strongly suggested for hydrological time series modelling as the conditional variance of the residuals of the linear models can be removed and the efficiency of the model will be improved.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Modarres, R. and Ouarda, T.B.M.J., 2013. Modelling heteroscedasticty of streamflow times series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–11.     

First Data on the Isotopic Age of Zircons from Rocks of the Roseta Ultramafic Massif,Southern Margin of the São Francisco Craton (Brazil)

Doklady Earth Sciences - The results of isotope U–Pb dating of zircons from lherzolite and vein olivine orthopyroxenite composing the Roseta ultramafic massif are presented. The zircons...