Modelling changes in the epidemic range of Southern Pine Beetle using temperature and objective moisture indicators

Summary This report details as statistical model that relates changes in areal coverage of the Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.) to a multivariate combination of temperature and moisture status indices. It is applicable to larger geographic areas than our previous work (Michaels 1984). Performance in a true test (predictive) mode detected the algebraic sign of major coverage changes in a highly significant fashion. The results are purely correlative, rather than causative.This report describes a test-proven tool that can be used by planners to determine whether coverage will change, based upon easily accessed climatic data. An example of its application is provided.

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Zusammenfassung Diese Untersuchung führt ein statistisches Modell aus, welches das flächenmäßige Auftreten vonDendroctonus frontalis Zimm. mit einer Kombination von Temperaturund Feuchteverhältnisindikatoren in Verbindung bringt. Es kann für größere Gebiete verwendet werden als ein früher vorgestelltes (Michaels 1984). Die Anwendung zur Vorhersage zeigte in einem Test gute Übereinstimmung mit der tatsächlich aufgetretenen Richtung der Veränderung in der Verbreitung des Käfers. Die Ergebnisse zeigen Korrelationen, keine Kausalitäten auf.Es wird also ein Werkzeug für den Planer vorgestellt, mit dem die Verbreitungsänderung mit Hilfe leicht zugänglicher klimatologischer Daten bestimmt werden kann. Ein Anwendungsbeispiel wird näher ausgeführt.

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With 5 Figures     

Measuring place-based accessibility under travel time uncertainty

Travel time uncertainty has significant impacts on individual activity-travel scheduling, but at present these impacts have not been considered in most accessibility studies. In this paper, an accessibility evaluation framework is proposed for urban areas with uncertain travel times. A reliable space-time service region (RSTR) model is introduced to represent the space-time service region of a facility under travel time uncertainty. Based on the RSTR model, four reliable place-based accessibility measures are proposed to evaluate accessibility to urban services by incorporating the effects of travel time reliability. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, a case study using large-scale taxi tracking data is carried out. The results of the case study indicate that the proposed accessibility measures can evaluate large-scale place-based accessibility well in urban areas with uncertain travel times. Conventional place-based accessibility indicators ignoring travel time reliability can significantly overestimate the accessibility to urban services.     

Evaluation of Interactions Between Oilfield Chemicals and Reservoir Rocks

Natural Resources Research - Sand failure and production occurs when the formation stress exceeds the strength of the formation, which is derived majorly from the natural material that cements the...     

鹤山龙口村边次生常绿阔叶林群落分析

鹤山龙口村边次生常绿阔叶林属季风常绿阔叶林类型, 其种类组成复杂多样而富于热带性, 据１２００ ｍ２ 的样方统计, 有维管束植物６２ 种, 分属于３２ 科、５４ 属, 其中, 属热带分布的有３２ 种, 属热带－ 亚热带分布的有２１ 种, 属亚热带分布的只有７ 种, 其余２ 种为世界分布。本群落的外貌终年常绿, 层次结构复杂而不明显, 样地内高于１－５ｍ 的立木有５２ 种１８５７ 株, 灌木层种类和株数尚多, １００ ｍ２ 内有１８５株, 草本层以乔灌木幼苗为主, 草本植物较少。群落组成结构与地带性常绿阔叶林相似, 乔、灌、草各层的物种多样性指数在４ 左右, 群落均匀度为０－７ ～０－９ , 生态优势度为０－０７ ～０－１０ , 但群落明显具有次生性, 大部分优势种群呈集群分布。若能减少人为干扰破坏, 本群落将向地带性典型植被类型演替。