Using series of daily average temperature observations over the period of 1961–1999 of 701 meteorological stations in China, and
simulated results of 20 global climate models (such as BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3T47) during the same period as the observation,
we validate and analyze the simulated results of the models by using three factor statistical method, achieve the results of multi-
model ensemble, test and verify the results of multi-model ensemble by using the observation data during the period of
1991–1999. Finally, we analyze changes of the annual mean temperature result of multi-mode ensemble prediction for the period
of 2011–2040 under the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. Analyzed results show that: (1) Global climate models can reproduce
Chinese regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, especially in low latitudes and eastern China. (2) With the
factor of the trend of annual mean temperature changes in reference period, there is an obvious bias between the model and the
observation. (3) Testing the result of multi-model ensemble during the period of 1991–1999, we can simulate the trend of temperature
increase. Compared to observation, the result of different weighing multi-model ensemble prediction is better than the same
weighing ensemble. (4) For the period of 2011–2040, the growth of the annual mean temperature in China, which results from
multi-mode ensemble prediction, is above 1 °C. In the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, under the emission scenarios
of A2, A1B and B1, the trend of growth in South China region is the smallest, the increment is less than or equals to 0.8 °C; the
trends in the northwestern region and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the largest, the increment is more than 1 °C. 相似文献
1 Introduction With progressive researches on global climate change, an integrated study of various disciplines tends to be inevitable. Mr. Moore III, chairman of IGBP, holds that the key to integration is to synthesize scientific findings so as to get new ideas and to chance cognition up to a new high[1]. Micro-study, rather than macro-study focuses on regional change[2-5]. To strengthen the global perspective in the study, "to research on typical regions and to deepen the regional divide… 相似文献