Studying geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs

Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a possible option for offsetting some anthropogenic radiative forcing, with the goal of reducing some of the associated climatic changes. There are clearly significant uncertainties associated with SRM, and even small-scale experiments that might reduce uncertainty would carry some risk. However, there are also natural and anthropogenic analogs to SRM, such as volcanic eruptions in the case of stratospheric aerosol injection and ship tracks in the case of marine cloud albedo modification. It is essential to understand what we can learn from these analogs in order to validate models, particularly because of the problematic nature of outdoor experiments. It is also important to understand what we cannot learn, as this might better focus attention on what risks would need to be solely examined by numerical models. Stratospheric conditions following a major volcanic eruption, for example, are not the same as those to be expected from intentional geoengineering, both because of confounding effects of volcanic ash and the differences between continuous and impulsive injection of material into the stratosphere. Nonetheless, better data would help validate models; we thus recommend an appropriate plan be developed to better monitor the next large volcanic eruption. Similarly, more could be learned about cloud albedo modification from careful study not only of ship tracks, but of ship and other aerosol emission sources in cloud regimes beyond the narrow conditions under which ship tracks form; this would benefit from improved satellite observing capabilities.     

Are estimated costs of stringent mitigation biased?

We take issue with the claim by Tavoni and Tol (Clim Chang 100:769–778, 2010) that reviews of the macroeconomic costs of achieving the 2 °C climate target have been affected by selection bias and have underestimated the costs. Although many more cost estimates are available in the literature, they have restricted their survey to the data in the EMF22 study, with a limited set of model solutions for the 2 °C target. They have applied the methodology of observational meta-analysis inappropriately to policy meta-analysis, where the number of results is often very small and the basis for imputing a statistical distribution does not usually exist. They have mixed direct costs with net costs in terms of %GDP. Their method of “correcting” for missing data with (high) costs of stringent mitigation could equally be applied to correcting the data for omission of mitigation options such as biomass energy with carbon capture so reducing the cost estimates. And finally they implicitly assume that the same policy combinations and mitigation options are applied for all climate scenarios, when more stringent scenarios may require more stringent policies and options, such as regulation or BECCS. The conclusion from the literature is more appropriately that the costs are highly uncertain, that they can equally be positive or negative (gains) and that models which fail to solve for stringent mitigations are not fit for purpose.     

Globalization,Pacific Islands,and the paradox of resilience

On April 2nd, 2007 a 12 m tsunami struck Simbo, a relatively remote island in Western Province, Solomon Islands. Although Simbo's population continues to depend on their own food production and small-scale governance regimes regulate access to resources, the island's way of life over the last century has increasingly been affected by processes associated with globalization. In this context of a rapidly globalizing world, this article examines the island's resilience and vulnerability to the tsunami and the adaptive capacities that enabled the response and recovery. The tsunami completely destroyed two villages and damaged fringing coral reefs, but casualties were low and social–ecological rebound relatively brisk. By combining social science methods (household surveys, focus group and ethnographic interviews) and underwater reef surveys we identify a number of countervailing challenges and opportunities presented by globalization that both nurture and suppress the island's resilience to high amplitude, low-frequency disturbances like tsunamis. Analysis suggests that certain adaptive capacities that sustain general system resilience come at the cost of more vulnerability to low-probability hazards. We discuss how communities undergoing increasingly complex processes of change must negotiate these kinds of trade-offs as they manage resilience at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the shifting dynamics of resilience may be critical for Pacific Island communities who seek to leverage globalization in their favor as they adapt to current social–ecological change and prepare for future large-scale ecological disturbances.     

The secondary history of Sutter's Mill CM carbonaceous chondrite based on water abundance and the structure of its organic matter from two clasts

Sutter's Mill is a regolith breccia composed of both heavily altered clasts and more reduced xenoliths. Here, we present a detailed investigation of fragments of SM18 and SM51. We have characterized the water content and the mineralogy by infrared (IR) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and the structure of the organic compounds by Raman spectroscopy, to characterize the secondary history of the clasts, including aqueous alteration and thermal metamorphism. The three methods used in this study suggest that SM18 was significantly heated. The amount of water contained in phyllosilicates derived by TGA is estimated to be approximately 3.2 wt%. This value is quite low compared with other CM chondrites that typically range from 6 to 12 wt%. The infrared transmission spectra of SM18 show that the mineralogy of the sample is dominated by a mixture of phyllosilicate and olivine. SM18 shows an intense peak at 11.2 μm indicative of olivine (Fig. 1). If we compare SM18 with other CM and metamorphosed CM chondrites, it shows one of the most intense olivine signatures, and therefore a lower proportion of phyllosilicate minerals. The Raman results tend to support a short‐duration heating hypothesis. In the I_D/I_G versus FWHM‐D diagram, SM18 appears to be unusual compared to most CM samples, and close to the metamorphosed CM chondrites Pecora Escarpment (PCA) 91008 and PCA 02012. In the case of SM51, infrared spectroscopy reveals that olivine is less abundant than in SM18 and the 10 μm silicate feature is more similar to that of moderately altered CM chondrites (like Murchison or Queen Alexandra Range [QUE] 97990). Raman spectroscopy does not clearly point to a heating event for SM51 in the I_D/I_G versus FWHM‐D diagram. However, TGA analysis suggests that SM51 was slightly dehydrated as the amount of water contained in phyllosilicates is approximately 3.7 wt%, which is higher than SM18, but still lower than phyllosilicate water contents in weakly altered CM chondrites. Altogether, these results confirm that fragments with different secondary histories are present within the Sutter's Mill fall. The dehydration that is clearly observed for SM18 is attributed to a short‐duration heating based on the similarity of its Raman spectra to that of PCA 91008. Because of the brecciated nature of Sutter's Mill and the presence of adjacent clasts with different thermal histories, impacts that can efficiently fragment and heat porous materials are the preferred heat source.     

Fragmentation model of meteoroid motion,mass loss,and radiation in the atmosphere

Abstract— We present the basic differential equations of meteor physics (the single body equations). We solve them numerically including two possible types of fragmentation: into large pieces and into a cluster of small fragments. We have written a Fortran code that computes the motion, ablation and light intensity of a meteoroid at chosen heights, and allows for the ablation and shape density coefficients σ and K, as well as the luminous efficiency τ, to be variable with height/time. We calibrated our fragmentation model (FM) by the best fit to observational values for the motion, ablation, radiation, fragmentation and the terminal masses (recovered meteorites) for the Lost City bolide. The FM can also handle multiple and overlapping meteor flares. We separately define both the apparent and intrinsic values of σ, K, and τ. We present in this paper values of the intrinsic luminous efficiency as function of velocity, mass, and normalized air density. Detailed results from the successful application of the FM to the Lost City, Innisfree, and Benesov bolides are also presented. Results of applying the FM to 15 bolides with very precise observational data are presented in a survey mode (Table 7). Standard deviations of applying our FM to all these events correspond to the precision of the observed values. Typical values of the intrinsic ablation coefficient are low, mostly in the range from 0.004 to 0.008 s² km^?2, and do not depend on the bolide type. The apparent ablation coefficients reflect the process of fragmentation. The bolide types indicate severity of the fragmentation process. The large differences of the “dynamic” and “photometric” mass from numerous earlier studies are completely explained by our FM. The fragmentation processes cannot be modeled simply by large values of the apparent ablation coefficient and of the apparent luminous efficiency. Moreover, our new FM can also well explain the radiation and full dynamics of very fast meteoroids at heights from 200 km to 130 km.     

Basait generation at the Apollo 12 site,Part 2: Source heterogeneity,multiple melts,and crustal contamination

Abstract— The petrogenesis of Apollo 12 mare basalts has been examined with emphasis on trace-element ratios and abundances. Vitrophyric basalts were used as parental compositions for the modelling, and proportions of fractionating phases were determined using the MAGFOX program of Longhi (1991). Crystal fractionation processes within crustal and sub-crustal magma chambers are evaluated as a function of pressure. Knowledge of the fractionating phases allows trace-element variations to be considered as either source related or as a product of post-magma-generation processes. For the ilmenite and olivine basalts, trace-element variations are inherited from the source, but the pigeonite basalt data have been interpreted with open-system evolution processes through crustal assimilation. Three groups of basalts have been examined: (1) Pigeonite basalts — produced by the assimilation of lunar crustal material by a parental melt (up to 3% assimilation and 10% crystal fractionation, with an “r” value of 0.3). (2) Ilmenite basalts — produced by variable degrees of partial melting (4–8%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, augite, and plagioclase, brought together by overturn of the Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulate pile. After generation, which did not exhaust any of the minerals in the source, these melts experienced closed-system crystal fractionation/accumulation. (3) Olivine basalts — produced by variable degrees of partial melting (5–10%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, and augite. After generation, again without exhausting any of the minerals in the source, these melts evolved through crystal accumulation. The evolved liquid counterparts of these cumulates have not been sampled. The source compositions for the ilmenite and olivine basalts were calculated by assuming that the vitrophyric compositions were primary and the magmas were produced by non-modal batch melting. Although the magnitude is unclear, evaluation of these source regions indicates that both be composed of early- and late-stage Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulates, requiring an overturn of the cumulate pile.     

Response of surface water chemistry to reduced levels of acid precipitation: comparison of trends in two regions of New York,USA

In light of recent reductions in sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions mandated by Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, temporal trends and trend coherence in precipitation (1984–2001 and 1992–2001) and surface water chemistry (1992–2001) were determined in two of the most acid‐sensitive regions of North America, i.e. the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains of New York. Precipitation chemistry data from six sites located near these regions showed decreasing sulphate (SO₄^2?), nitrate (NO₃^?), and base cation (C_B) concentrations and increasing pH during 1984–2001, but few significant trends during 1992–2001. Data from five Catskill streams and 12 Adirondack lakes showed decreasing trends in SO₄^2? concentrations at all sites, and decreasing trends in NO₃^?, C_B, and H⁺ concentrations and increasing trends in dissolved organic carbon at most sites. In contrast, acid‐neutralizing capacity (ANC) increased significantly at only about half the Adirondack lakes and in one of the Catskill streams. Flow correction prior to trend analysis did not change any trend directions and had little effect on SO₄^2? trends, but it caused several significant non‐flow‐corrected trends in NO₃^? and ANC to become non‐significant, suggesting that trend results for flow‐sensitive constituents are affected by flow‐related climate variation. SO₄^2? concentrations showed high temporal coherence in precipitation, surface waters, and in precipitation–surface water comparisons, reflecting a strong link between S emissions, precipitation SO₄^2? concentrations, and the processes that affect S cycling within these regions. NO₃^? and H⁺ concentrations and ANC generally showed weak coherence, especially in surface waters and in precipitation–surface water comparisons, indicating that variation in local‐scale processes driven by factors such as climate are affecting trends in acid–base chemistry in these two regions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.