A SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY OF EXTREME UNSEASONABLE FLOODS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, 1950–1990

Unseasonable floods are floods that occur in the season of lowest flood frequency, or dry season. Such floods pose a unique problem to flood planners and forecasters, yet little research has investigated the physical processes associated with unseasonable floods. The purpose of this study is to construct a synoptic climatology of extreme unseasonable floods for the southeastern United States. Results indicate that the types of storms creating unseasonable floods are location specific, with four unique regions across the study area: Carolina (tropical storms/hurricanes), Georgia Coastal Plain (Gulf depressions), Gulf-Atlantic (frontal), and Tennessee (frontal with upper-air enhancement). The precipitation created by these storms is low to moderate, rarely exceeding the 10-year 24-hour storm total. The precipitation levels suggest that a combination of meteorological conditions and land-surface conditions create the extreme events. A statistical analysis indicates that high soil-moisture levels combine with the moderate rains to produce extreme unseasonable floods. [Key words: unseasonable floods, synoptic climatology, land-surface conditions, southeastern United States.]     

Association Between <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Fusarium</Emphasis> spp. on <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Spartina alterniflora</Emphasis> and Dieback Sites in Connecticut and Massachusetts

Sudden vegetation dieback (SVD) is defined as the loss and lack of recovery of smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) in salt marshes. A new species of a moderately pathogenic fungus called Fusarium palustre is consistently found in SVD sites, but greenhouse tests revealed that it is not capable of causing mortality of healthy plants. Similarly, root-knot nematodes (Meloidogyne spartinae) are also found in SVD sites, but their incidence in marshes affected by SVD is not known. To understand more about the ecology of F. palustre and M. spartinae, salt marshes along Connecticut’s Long Island Sound and Massachusetts’ Cape Cod that exhibited SVD and those that did not, were visited during the summers of 2007, 2008, and 2009. Belowground and aboveground tissues of smooth cordgrass plants from 18 marshes were removed, washed, and assayed for Fusarium spp. to determine if patterns between the incidence of the different species of Fusarium, their virulence on S. alterniflora, root-knot nematodes (M. spartinae), and the health of the marsh could be revealed. There were significantly more colonies of Fusarium growing from plants in SVD sites (6.1%) than in healthy marshes where no SVD was present (<1.0%). The incidence of Fusarium spp. from plants at the perimeter of the SVD site was not statistically different from asymptomatic plants 10–20 m from the SVD edge. The majority of isolates could be assigned to one of two species, F. palustre or another slightly pathogenic group called Fusarium cf. incarnatum (88% in 2007, 62% in 2008, and 96% in 2009). The ratio of F. palustre to F. cf. incarnatum was 6.7, 2.7, or 2.1 for 2007, 2008, or 2009, respectively. Greenhouse tests on healthy S. alterniflora revealed that isolates of F. palustre were more virulent than F. cf. incarnatum, regardless of whether they were recovered from plants in healthy marshes or in SVD sites. Root-knot nematodes were found sporadically and could not be associated with SVD. Factorial greenhouse experiments did not demonstrate any interaction between F. palustre and M. spartinae providing no experimental evidence that combining Fusarium and root-knot nematodes could cause mortality. The presence of Fusarium on S. alterniflora in healthy marshes also suggests an endophytic relationship that may subsequently function in the breakdown of tissue when plants are compromised.     

Morphological similarities between DBM and a microeconomic model of sprawl

We present a model that simulates the growth of a metropolitan area on a 2D lattice. The model is dynamic and based on microeconomics. Households show preferences for nearby open spaces and neighbourhood density. They compete on the land market. They travel along a road network to access the CBD. A planner ensures the connectedness and maintenance of the road network. The spatial pattern of houses, green spaces and road network self-organises, emerging from agents individualistic decisions. We perform several simulations and vary residential preferences. Our results show morphologies and transition phases that are similar to Dieletric Breakdown Models (DBM). Such similarities were observed earlier by other authors, but we show here that it can be deducted from the functioning of the land market and thus explicitly connected to urban economic theory.     

Historic emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in Mato Grosso,Brazil: 1) source data uncertainties

Background  

Historic carbon emissions are an important foundation for proposed efforts to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks through conservation and sustainable forest management (REDD+). The level of uncertainty in historic carbon emissions estimates is also critical for REDD+, since high uncertainties could limit climate benefits from credited mitigation actions. Here, we analyzed source data uncertainties based on the range of available deforestation, forest degradation, and forest carbon stock estimates for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 1990-2008.     

Climate change links fate of glaciers and an endemic alpine invertebrate

Climate warming in the mid- to high-latitudes and high-elevation mountainous regions is occurring more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, causing extensive loss of glaciers and snowpack. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on alpine stream biota, especially invertebrates. Here, we show a strong linkage between regional climate change and the fundamental niche of a rare aquatic invertebrate—the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana—endemic to Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park, Canada and USA. L. tumana has been petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced glacier loss, yet little is known on specifically how climate impacts may threaten this rare species and many other enigmatic alpine aquatic species worldwide. During 14 years of research, we documented that L. tumana inhabits a narrow distribution, restricted to short sections (~500 m) of cold, alpine streams directly below glaciers, permanent snowfields, and springs. Our simulation models suggest that climate change threatens the potential future distribution of these sensitive habitats and the persistence of L. tumana through the loss of glaciers and snowfields. Mountaintop aquatic invertebrates are ideal early warning indicators of climate warming in mountain ecosystems. Research on alpine invertebrates is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and ecosystem change.     

The long term operation of a biologically based treatment system that removes As, S and Zn from industrial (smelter operation) landfill seepage

Passive treatment systems have a long history in the remediation of mining impacted water. The functioning of these systems is poorly understood, in particular the microbial processes that underpin metal removal. A biologically based engineered wetland treatment system that has operated in Trail, B.C. to treat seepage from a historic Pb and Zn smelter landfill, was investigated. The system has functioned for more than a decade, an unusually long life span for a passive bioreactor design. The study focuses on the 5a of operation from 2003 until 2007. Arsenic is a major contaminant in the ore that is processed in Trail, which has caused high As concentrations in the seepage. In addition to As, Zn and Cd removal were investigated. During the 5-a period, the system sequestered 2990 kg of As, 7700 kg of Zn and 85 kg of Cd. Nearly 90% of these elements were removed in two biochemical reactors (BCRs) that comprise the first two components of the six cell system, with the remainder removed in plant-based polishing cells. Average input concentrations over the 5-a period were 2.3 and 4.1 mM for As and Zn, respectively and 0.45 μM for Cd. Final output concentrations were reduced to 0.01 mM for As, 0.05 mM for Zn and 0.18 μM for Cd. Sulfur removal averaged 34% of input concentration. Analysis of mineral formation in the system using X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy indicated kottigite (Zn₃(AsO₄)₂⋅8H₂O) and sphalerite (ZnS) as the major mineral phases controlling As and Zn sequestration; Cd appears to be immobilized as CdS. Evidence for orpiment was obtained from X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XANES) studies, and arsenopyrite was not detected. Although microbial activity dominates the removal of Zn, As and Cd from the soluble phase, abiotic removal mechanisms contribute including sorption of As and Zn to biosolids and filtration of metal precipitates by the solid matrix. The removal of toxic elements over the period appeared to be relatively consistent. Seasonal fluctuations, a large spike in input element concentrations over a 2-month period, and removal of the two biochemical reactors during a period of reconstruction appeared to have relatively little impact on the system as a whole.     

Interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity along the Pacific coast of North America

The interannual variability of near-coastal eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones is described using a data set of cyclone tracks constructed from U.S. and Mexican oceanic and atmospheric reports for the period 1951-2006. Near-coastal cyclone counts are enumerated monthly, allowing us to distinguish interannual variability during different phases of the May-November tropical cyclone season. In these data more tropical cyclones affect the Pacific coast in May-July, the early months of the tropical cyclone season, during La Niña years, when equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are anomalously cool, than during El Niño years. The difference in early season cyclone counts between La Niña and El Niño years was particularly pronounced during the mid-twentieth century epoch when cool equatorial temperatures were enhanced as described by an index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Composite maps from years with high and low near-coastal cyclone counts show that the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are consistent with preferential steering of tropical cyclones northeastward toward the west coast of Mexico.     

Risk-targeted seismic design maps for mainland France

In this article, the recently proposed approach known as ‘risk targeting’ for the development of national seismic design maps is investigated for mainland France. Risk targeting leads to ground-motion maps that, if used for design purposes, would lead to a uniform level of risk nationally. The Eurocode 8 design loads currently in force for France are used as the basis of this study. Because risk targeting requires various choices on, for example, the level of acceptable risk to be made a priori and these choices are not solely engineering decisions but involve input from decision makers we undertake sensitivity tests to study their influence. It is found that, in contrast to applications of this methodology for US cities, risk targeting does not lead to large modifications with respect to the national seismic hazard map nor to changes in the relative ranking of cities with respect to their design ground motions. This is because the hazard curves for French cities are almost parallel. In addition, we find that using a target annual collapse probability of about 10^?5 for seismically designed buildings and a probability of collapse when subjected to the design PGA of 10^?5 leads to reasonable results. This is again in contrast to US studies that have adopted much higher values for both these probabilities.     

The end of the Ediacara biota: Extinction,biotic replacement,or Cheshire Cat?

The Ediacaran–Cambrian transition signals a drastic change in both diversity and ecosystem construction. The Ediacara biota (consisting of various metazoan stem lineages in addition to extinct eukaryotic clades) disappears, and is replaced by more familiar Cambrian and Paleozoic metazoan groups. Although metazoans are present in the Ediacaran, their ecological contribution is dwarfed by Ediacaran-type clades of uncertain phylogenetic affinities, while Ediacaran-type morphologies are virtually non-existent in younger assemblages. Three alternative hypotheses have been advanced to explain this dramatic change at, or near, the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary: 1) mass extinction of most Ediacaran forms; 2) biotic replacement, with early Cambrian organisms eliminating Ediacaran forms; and 3) a Cheshire Cat model, with Ediacaran forms gradually disappearing from the fossil record (but not necessarily going extinct) as a result of the elimination of unique preservational settings, primarily microbial matgrounds, that dominated the Ediacaran. To evaluate these proposed explanations for the biotic changes observed at the Ediacaran–Cambrian transition, environmental drivers leading to global mass extinction are compared to biological factors such as predation and ecosystem engineering. We explore temporal and biogeographic distributions of Ediacaran taxa combined with evaluations of functional guild ranges throughout the Ediacaran. The paucity of temporally-resolved localities with diverse Ediacaran assemblages, combined with difficulties associated with differences in taphonomic regimes before, during, and after the transition hinders this evaluation. Nonetheless, the demonstration of geographic and niche range changes offers a novel means of assessing the downfall of Ediacara-type taxa at the hands of emerging metazoans, which we hypothesize to be most likely due to the indirect ecological impact metazoans had upon the Ediacarans. Ultimately, the combination of studies on ecosystem construction, biostratigraphy, and biogeography showcases the magnitude of the transition at the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary.