The fall of the St-Robert meteorite

Abstract The St-Robert (Québec, Canada) meteorite shower occurred on 1994 June 15 at 0h02m UT accompanied by detonations audible for >200 km from the fireball endpoint. The fireball was recorded by visual observers in Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Québec and Ontario as well as by optical and infrared sensors in Earth-orbit. Penetration to an altitude of 36 km occurred ～60 km to the northeast of Montreal, where the bolide experienced several episodes of fragmentation. A total of 20 fragments of this H5 chondrite, comprising a total mass of 25.4 kg, were recovered in an ellipse measuring 8 × 3.5 km. One fragment of the shower partially penetrated the aluminum roof of a shed. Interpretation of the visual and satellite data suggests that the fireball traveled from south-southwest to north-northeast, with a slope from the horizontal of 55°–61°. A statistical evaluation of the likely heliocentric orbits for the body prior to collision with the Earth, coupled with theoretical modeling of the entry, suggests an entry velocity in the range of 12.7–13.3 km/s; the meteoroid had moved in a low-inclination orbit, with orbital perihelion located extremely close to the Earth's orbit. From satellite optical data, it is found that the photometric mass consumed during the largest detonation is ～1200 kg. Estimation of the amplitude of the acoustic signal detected by the most distant observer yields a source energy near 0.5 kt TNT equivalent energy, which corresponds to a mass of order 10 metric tonnes. This measure is uncertain to approximately one order of magnitude. Theoretical modeling of the entry of the object suggests a mass near 1600 kg. Cosmogenic radionuclide activities constrain the lower initial mass to be ～700 kg with an upper limit near 4000 kg. Seismic data possibly associated with the fireball suggest extremely poor coupling between the airwave and the ground. The total mass estimated to have reached the ground is ～100 kg (in material comprising >55 g fragments), while the preatmospheric mass is found to be most probably in the range of 1200–2000 kg.     

Backyard spectroscopy and photometry of Titan, Uranus and Neptune

We present and discuss observations of Titan (photometry and spectroscopy) and Uranus and Neptune (spectroscopy only) obtained using off-the-shelf equipment, affordable and available to many amateur astronomers and small colleges. Spectral observations compare well with published results from front-line observatories, and some evidence of seasonal change is evident in both spectra and narrowband photometry. Scattered Saturn light presents a significant problem for Titan observations, in particular, for slitless spectroscopy, and our attempts to reproduce Titan's lightcurve have so far been unsuccessful.     

Improvements in the integration of remote sensing and rock slope modelling

Natural Hazards - Forests are always dangerous to fire in China’s forested regions, and forest fire hazard has long been a serious issue in China. Zhejiang province is one of the key forest...     

The Science and Policy of the Verified Carbon Standard Methodology for Tidal Wetland and Seagrass Restoration

The restoration of tidal wetland and seagrass systems has the potential for significant greenhouse gas benefits, but project-level accounting procedures have not been available at an international scale. In this paper, we describe the Verified Carbon Standard Methodology for Tidal Wetland and Seagrass Restoration, which provides greenhouse gas accounting procedures for marsh, mangrove, tidal forested wetland, and seagrasses systems across a diversity of geomorphic conditions and restoration techniques. We discuss and critique the essential science and policy elements of the methodology and underlying knowledge gaps. We developed a method for estimating mineral-protected (recalcitrant) allochthonous carbon in tidal wetland systems using field-collected soils data and literature-derived default values of the recalcitrant carbon that accompanies mineral deposition. We provided default values for methane emissions from polyhaline soils but did not provide default values for freshwater, oligohaline, and mesohaline soils due to high variability of emissions in these systems. Additional topics covered are soil carbon sequestration default values, soil carbon fate following erosion, avoided losses in organic and mineral soils, nitrous oxide emissions, soil profile sampling methods, sample size, prescribed fire, additionality, and leakage. Knowledge gaps that limit the application of the methodology include the estimation of CH₄ emissions from fresh and brackish tidal wetlands, lack of validation of our approach for the estimation of recalcitrant allochthonous carbon, understanding of carbon oxidation rates following drainage of mineral tidal wetland soils, estimation of the effects of prescribed fire on soil carbon stocks, and the analysis of additionality for projects outside of the USA.     

The importance of population,climate change and CO2 plant physiological forcing in determining future global water stress

Future levels of water stress depend on changes in several key factors including population, climate-change driven water availability, and a carbon dioxide physiological-forcing effect on evaporation and run-off. In this study we use an ensemble of the HadCM3 climate model forced with a range of future emissions scenarios combined with a simple water scarcity index to assess the contribution of each of these factors to the projected population living in water stress over the 21st century.Population change only scenarios increase the number of people living in water stress such that at peak global population 65% of people experience some level of water stress. Globally, the climate model ensemble projects an increase in water availability which partially offsets some of the impacts of population growth. The result is 1 billion fewer people living in water stress by the 2080s under the high end emissions scenarios than if population increased in the absence of climate change.This study highlights the important role plant-physiological forcing has on future water resources. The effect of rising CO₂ is to increase available water and to reduce the number of people living in high water stress by around 200 million compared to climate only projections. This effect is of a similar order of magnitude to climate change.     

Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation

In the 1960s North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled rapidly. The magnitude of the cooling was largest in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and was coincident with a rapid freshening of the SPG. Here we analyze hindcasts of the 1960s North Atlantic cooling made with the UK Met Office’s decadal prediction system (DePreSys), which is initialised using observations. It is shown that DePreSys captures—with a lead time of several years—the observed cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic SPG. DePreSys also captures changes in SST over the wider North Atlantic and surface climate impacts over the wider region, such as changes in atmospheric circulation in winter and sea ice extent. We show that initialisation of an anomalously weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and hence weak northward heat transport, is crucial for DePreSys to predict the magnitude of the observed cooling. Such an anomalously weak AMOC is not captured when ocean observations are not assimilated (i.e. it is not a forced response in this model). The freshening of the SPG is also dominated by ocean salt transport changes in DePreSys; in particular, the simulation of advective freshwater anomalies analogous to the Great Salinity Anomaly were key. Therefore, DePreSys suggests that ocean dynamics played an important role in the cooling of the North Atlantic in the 1960s, and that this event was predictable.