Extensional shear zones as imaged by reflection seismic lines: the Larderello geothermal field (central Italy)

The Larderello geothermal field is located in the Inner Northern Apennines, in an area which has been subject to extension since the Early Miocene. The latest extensional episode (Pliocene–Present) has resulted in the formation of NW-trending, NE-dipping listric normal faults, whose geometry is controlled down to 3 km by borehole data. In this paper, we integrate a new interpretation of seismic reflection lines with existing seismic, field, and borehole data to analyse the relations among listric normal faults, the top of the brittle–ductile transition, and the migration of geothermal fluids.In accordance with previous interpretations, we consider the strong reflector (K-horizon) marking the top of the reflective mid-lower crust, and located at a depth of 3–5 km in the geothermal area, to represent the top of the brittle–ductile transition. Its reflectivity most probably derives from the presence of overpressured fluids. We identify three main NW-trending, NE-dipping extensional brittle shear zones, showing listric geometry and soling out in the vicinity of the K-horizon. The latter appears to be dislocated in correspondence of the soling out of the shear zones. These shear zones, because of the associated intense fracturing, represent the most natural channels of upward migration of geothermal fluids from the magmatic sources located below the K-horizon.We suggest that these two conclusions—that listric normal faults root at or near the brittle–ductile transition, and that they act as preferential upward migration paths for magmatic fluids—may be of general validity for geothermal fields located in extensional settings.     

Probabilistic modelling of auto-correlation characteristics of heterogeneous slopes

Spatial variability of soil materials has long been recognised as an important factor influencing the reliability of geo-structures. This study stochastically investigates the influence of spatial variability of shear strength on the stability of heterogeneous slopes, focusing on the auto-correlation function, auto-correlation distance and cross-correlation between soil parameters. The finite element method is merged with the random field theory to probabilistically evaluate factor of safety and probability of failure via Monte-Carlo simulations. The simulation procedure is explained in detail with suggestions on improving efficiency of the Monte-Carlo process. A simple procedure to create cross-correlation between random variables, which allows direct comparison of the influence of each strength variable, is discussed. The results show that the auto-correlation distance and cross-correlation can significantly influence slope stability, while the choice of auto-correlation function only has a minor effect. An equation relating the probability of failure with the auto-correlation distance is suggested in light of the analyses performed in this work and other results from the literature.     

Parameterization of historical earthquakes in Switzerland

Macroseismic earthquake parameters of historical events have been reassessed in the framework of the update of the Earthquake Catalogue of Switzerland ECOS-09. The Bakun and Wentworth method (Bakun and Wentworth 1997) has been used to assess location, magnitude, and, when possible, focal depth. We apply a two-step procedure. Intensity attenuation is assessed first by fitting a model with a logarithmic and a linear term, using a set of 111 earthquakes. The magnitude range is 3 and 5.8. Then, intensity to magnitude relation is developed. A subset of the 111 events, all having an instrumental moment magnitude, was used to perform this intensity to magnitude calibration. Five final calibration strategies were developed based on different intensity calibration datasets, regionalized or non-regionalized models, and fixed or variable source depth. The final assessment of the macroseismic earthquake parameters is based on an expert judgment procedure, using the results derived from all five strategies, and taking into consideration the historical knowledge available for the particular earthquake. A bootstrap procedure has been applied to assess the uncertainty of parameters. Indicative lower and upper bounds of uncertainty are derived from distributions of location and magnitude for a number of events, obtained through bootstrap sampling of the intensity field and of the single intensity values. The final uncertainties are given in terms of parameter uncertainty classes already used in previous versions of the earthquake catalogue of Switzerland.     

Geochemistry of the Submarine Gaseous Emissions of Panarea (Aeolian Islands, Southern Italy): Magmatic vs. Hydrothermal Origin and Implications for Volcanic Surveillance

The marine sector surrounding Panarea Island (Aeolian Islands, South Italy) is affected by widespread submarine emissions of CO₂ -rich gases and thermal water discharges which have been known since the Roman Age. On November 3^rd, 2002 an anomalous degassing event affected the area, probably in response to a submarine explosion. The concentrations of minor reactive gases (CO, CH₄ and H₂) of samples collected in November and December, 2002 show drastic compositional changes when compared to previous samples collected from the same area in the 1980s. In particular the samples collected after the November 3^rd phenomenon display relative increases in H₂ and CO and a strong decrease in the CH₄ contents, while other gas species show no significant change. The interaction of the original gas with seawater explains the variable contents of CO₂, H₂S, N₂, Ar and He which characterize the different samples, but cannot explain the large variations of CO, CH₄ and H₂ which are instead compatible with changes in the redox, temperature and pressure conditions of the system. Two models, both implying an increasing input of magmatic fluids are compatible with the observed variations of minor reactive species. In the first one, the input of magmatic fluids drives the hydrothermal system towards atypical (more oxidizing) redox conditions, slowly pressurizing the system up to a critical state. In the second one, the hydrothermal system is flashed by the rising high-T volcanic fluid, suddenly released by a magmatic body at depth. The two models have different implications for volcanic surveillance and risk assessment: In the first case, the November 3^rd event may represent both the culmination of a relatively slow process which caused the overpressurization of the hydrothermal system and the beginning of a new phase of quiescence. The possible evolution of the second model is unforeseeable because it is mainly related to the thermal, baric and compositional state of the deep magmatic system that is poorly known.     

Inversion of local S-wave velocity structures from average H/V ratios, and their use for the estimation of site-effects

H/V spectral ratios from microtremors areused to retrieve the S-velocity structurefrom a single ambient vibration record, byusing its relation to the ellipticity ofthe fundamental mode Rayleigh wave and theamplitude of observed H/V ratio.Constraints are needed in order to restrictthe possible range of solutions, and theinversion is applied to sites where thethickness of the unconsolidated sedimentsis approximately known from boreholeinformation. Within the uncertainty, theinverted structures agree well with theresults from other S-wave measuringtechniques such as downhole and cross-holemeasurements, and the analysis of ambientvibrations measured on an array.The influence of the inversion uncertaintyon site-amplification estimates forearthquakes is then investigated. For allinverted models, site response is computedfor a large number of events, which allowsto define the uncertainty by the aprioriunknown source position and mechanism of afuture earthquake. In most cases thevariability between the results obtainedfor the different models is much smallerthan the variability introduced by theunknown source position. The accuracy withwhich S-wave velocity structures can beretrieved from observed H/V ratios istherefore sufficient for an application ofthe method in seismic hazard analysis for aspecific site.