A multiscale method for distributed parameter estimation with application to reservoir history matching

A method for multiscale parameter estimation with application to reservoir history matching is presented. Starting from a given fine-scale model, coarser models are generated using a global upscaling technique where the coarse models are tuned to match the solution of the fine model. Conditioning to dynamic data is done by history-matching the coarse model. Using consistently the same resolution both for the forward and inverse problems, this model is successively refined using a combination of downscaling and history matching until model-matching dynamic data are obtained at the finest scale. Large-scale corrections are obtained using fast models, which, combined with a downscaling procedure, provide a better initial model for the final adjustment on the fine scale. The result is thus a series of models with different resolution, all matching history as good as possible with this grid. Numerical examples show that this method may significantly reduce the computational effort and/or improve the quality of the solution when achieving a fine-scale match as compared to history-matching directly on the fine scale.     

Updating default depths in the ISC bulletin

The International Seismological Centre (ISC) publishes the definitive global bulletin of earthquake locations. In the ISC bulletin, we aim to obtain a free depth, but often this is not possible. Subsequently, the first option is to obtain a depth derived from depth phases. If depth phases are not available, we then use the reported depth from a reputable local agency. Finally, as a last resort, we set a default depth.In the past, common depths of 10, 33, or multiples of 50 km have been assigned. Assigning a more meaningful default depth, specific to a seismic region will increase the consistency of earthquake locations within the ISC bulletin and allow the ISC to publish better positions and magnitude estimates. It will also improve the association of reported secondary arrivals to corresponding seismic events.We aim to produce a global set of default depths, based on a typical depth for each area, from well-constrained events in the ISC bulletin or where depth could be constrained using a consistent set of depth phase arrivals provided by a number of different reporters.In certain areas, we must resort to using other assumptions. For these cases, we use a global crustal model (Crust2.0) to set default depths to half the thickness of the crust.     

Debris flows triggered from non-stationary glacier lake outbursts: the case of the Teztor Lake complex (Northern Tian Shan,Kyrgyzstan)

One of the most far-reaching glacier-related hazards in the Tian Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan is glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and related debris flows. An improved understanding of the formation and evolution of glacial lakes and debris flow susceptibility is therefore essential to assess and mitigate potential hazards and risks. Non-stationary glacier lakes may fill periodically and quickly; the potential for them to outburst increases as water volume may change dramatically over very short periods of time. After the outburst or drainage of a lake, the entire process may start again, and thus these non-stationary lakes are of particular importance in the region. In this work, the Teztor lake complex, located in Northern Kyrgyzstan, was selected for the analysis of outburst mechanisms of non-stationary glacial lakes, their formation, as well as the triggering of flows and development of debris flows and floods downstream of the lakes. The different Teztor lakes are filled with water periodically, and according to field observations, they tend to outburst every 9–10 years on average. The most important event in the area dates back to 1953, and another important event occurred on July 31, 2012. Other smaller outbursts have been recorded as well. Our study shows that the recent GLOF in 2012 was caused by a combination of intense precipitation during the days preceding the event and a rapid rise in air temperatures. Analyses of features in the entrainment and depositional zones point to a total debris flow volume of about 200,000 m³, with discharge ranging from 145 to 340 m³ s^?1 and flow velocities between 5 and 7 m s^?1. Results of this study are key for a better design of sound river corridor planning and for the assessment and mitigation of potential GLOF hazards and risks in the region.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987114000929

Global sea-level has changed in a cyclic manner through geologic history, but the regularities of these changes are yet to be fully understood. Despite certain (and sometimes significant) differences, ...     

Do fecundity‐time models really predict extreme optimal egg sizes?

In 1973, Vance published a mathematical model that explains differences in reproductive strategies such as planktotrophy and lecithotrophy found in marine invertebrates. The original model Vance (The American Naturalist, 107 , 339–352) traded fecundity against development time and resulted in a U‐shaped fitness function suggesting that only extreme levels of egg provisioning (referred to as egg size) are evolutionarily stable. Several later models independently predicted evolutionary stability of extreme egg sizes, and this has been commonly interpreted as a proof that the Vance model, albeit oversimplified, reflects the fundamental evolutionary principle of disruptive egg size evolution in marine invertebrates. However, empirical studies of the last several decades have illustrated that intermediate levels of egg provisioning are commonly observed in nature. As a result, the recent modifications of the original Vance model have attempted to explain evolution of such intermediate strategies. Here we re‐examine the earlier fecundity‐time models of the ‘Vance family’ and show that only Vance and its minor modification by Grant (The American Naturalist, 122 , 549–555) invariably predict evolutionary stability of extreme egg sizes. Most modifications of the original Vance model in fact can predict at least some intermediate optimal egg sizes and reproductive strategies. There is no reason to assume that selection towards extreme egg sizes is the driving force in the evolution of marine invertebrate life histories.     

Determining parameters of Moon’s orbital and rotational motion from LLR observations using GRAIL and IERS-recommended models

The aim of this work is to combine the model of orbital and rotational motion of the Moon developed for DE430 with up-to-date astronomical, geodynamical, and geo- and selenophysical models. The parameters of the orbit and physical libration are determined in this work from lunar laser ranging (LLR) observations made at different observatories in 1970–2013. Parameters of other models are taken from solutions that were obtained independently from LLR. A new implementation of the DE430 lunar model, including the liquid core equations, was done within the EPM ephemeris. The postfit residuals of LLR observations make evident that the terrestrial models and solutions recommended by the IERS Conventions are compatible with the lunar theory. That includes: EGM2008 gravitational potential with conventional corrections and variations from solid and ocean tides; displacement of stations due to solid and ocean loading tides; and precession-nutation model. Usage of these models in the solution for LLR observations has allowed us to reduce the number of parameters to be fit. The fixed model of tidal variations of the geopotential has resulted in a lesser value of Moon’s extra eccentricity rate, as compared to the original DE430 model with two fit parameters. A mixed model of lunar gravitational potential was used, with some coefficients determined from LLR observations, and other taken from the GL660b solution obtained from the GRAIL spacecraft mission. Solutions obtain accurate positions for the ranging stations and the five retroreflectors. Station motion is derived for sites with long data spans. Dissipation is detected at the lunar fluid core-solid mantle boundary demonstrating that a fluid core is present. Tidal dissipation is strong at both Earth and Moon. Consequently, the lunar semimajor axis is expanding by 38.20 mm/yr, the tidal acceleration in mean longitude is \(-25.90 {{}^{\prime \prime }}/\mathrm{cy}^2\), and the eccentricity is increasing by \(1.48\times 10^{-11}\) each year.     

Simulating flood events at the Twin Ports of Duluth-Superior using a linked hydrologic-hydrodynamic framework

Ocean Dynamics - Generally, ports in the North American Great Lakes are not supported with navigational guidance (water level, water temperature, currents, ice) by NOAA’s Great Lakes...     

Modeling the ice-attenuated waves in the Great Lakes

Ocean Dynamics - A partly coupled wave-ice model with the ability to resolve ice-induced attenuation on waves was developed using the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) framework and...     

Physical mechanisms of submesoscale eddies generation: evidences from laboratory modeling and satellite data in the Black Sea

Ocean Dynamics - The observed evidence of the implementation of three different mechanisms of the submesoscale eddies generation in the Black Sea previously studied by the field research and...