Influence of southern oscillation and SSTs over Nino-3.4 region on the winter monsoon rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh

An analysis of the mean monthly data of 124 years reveals that the relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index in September and the winter monsoon rainfall (WMR) over Coastal Andhra Pradesh (CAP) is variable and non-stationary. In the recent four decades, however, SOI (Sept) is negatively and significantly correlated with CAP WMR. A similar analysis is performed using 50 years of mean monthly SSTs over Nino-3.4 region in August and September and CAP WMR to detect a possible relationship and there is a striking positive relation between them. In both of the above cases, the September signal is more significant in the recent four decades than for the other months and seasons for probable prediction of CAP WMR. Finally, to examine the influence of SO on the winter monsoon rainfall, a non-parametric test “Mann-Whitney Rank Statistics” test has been applied to the rainfall associated with extreme positive and negative SOI events     

Projection of lightning over South/South East Asia using CMIP5 models

Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquakes have been reported for centuries. Precursor signals, which include radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes and ground lights near the epicenter, can all be used for earthquake prediction. Anomalous negative signals observed by ground-based atmospheric electric field instruments under fair weather conditions constitute a novel earthquake prediction approach. In theory, the abnormal radiation of heat before an earthquake produces fair weather around the epicenter. To determine the near-epicenter weather conditions prior to an earthquake, 81 global earthquake events with magnitudes of 6 or above from 2008 to 2021 were collected. According to Harrison's fair weather criteria, in 81.48% of all statistical cases, the weather was fair 6 h before the earthquake; in 62.96% of all cases, the weather was fair 24 h before the event. Moreover, most of these cases without fair weather several hours before the earthquake were near the sea. Among the 37 inland earthquakes, 86.49% were preceded by 6 h of fair weather, and 70.27% were preceded by fair weather for 24 h. We conclude that the weather near the epicenter might be fair for several hours before a strong earthquake, especially for inland events.

     

Distribution, enrichment and accumulation of heavy metals in coastal sediments of Alang-Sosiya ship scrapping yard, India

Since its inception in 1982, the Alang-Sosiya yard has become the largest ship scrapping works in the world. Several hundreds of ships arrive every year. The degree of heavy metal contamination has been studied in bulk and fine sediments from the intertidal zone of this ship scrapping yard, two stations, one on either side at 5 km distance and one reference station 60 km distance near Mahuva, towards the south. The samples have been subjected to a total digestion technique and analysed for elements: Cd, Co, Cu, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn and Al, and %TOC. The absolute metal concentrations reflected variations in BF and FF sediment samples with organic matter content. Enrichment factors (EF) and geoaccumulation indices (Igeo) have been calculated and the relative contamination levels are assessed at these sites. At Alang-Sosiya, the enrichment of heavy metals has been observed to be relatively high.     

A paleolimnological record of Holocene climate and environmental change in the Temagami region,northeastern Ontario

The Arcellacean (Thecamoebian) fauna was assessed in five Holocene sediment cores obtained from James and Granite lakes in the Temagami region of northeastern Ontario. In addition, palynological analysis was carried out on two of these cores, one each from James and Granite lakes. The first indication of postglacial colonization by plants was the appearance of rare Cupressaceae pollen, dated to 10,800 yr BP. Plant diversity began to increase by 10,770 yr BP when Pinus spp. and Larix migrated into the area. The first appearance of arcellaceans occurred after 9650 yr BP in assemblages dominated by Centropyxis constricta and opportunistic Centropyxis aculeata. High abundances of charophytes in the cores until 8800 yr BP indicated that macroalgae were proliferating at this time. This deposition is interpreted to have occurred during the draining of an ice-marginal lake following the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Based on pollen analysis, warmer conditions associated with the Holocene Hypsithermal prevailed in the area from 6250 to 4115 yr BP. The stable, open Great Lakes – St. Lawrence type forest that developed here at the beginning of the Hypsithermal continues to prevail to the present. The periodic colonization of the lake by beavers (Castor canadensis) acted as a control on water-level and eutrophication through the Holocene. Evidence of eutrophication was indicated in the core samples by the abundance of high levels of the alga Pediastrum and the arcellacean Cucurbitella tricuspis. Eutrophication periodically developed when beavers dammed a site, causing the rate of flow in drainage streams to slow and stagnant conditions occurred. When the site became depleted of the nearby trees, which were preferred by beaver (Betula, Alnus and Populus), the dam would be abandoned, causing the water-level to drop. Stagnant conditions were reduced as flow levels increased, reducing eutrophication and resulting in recovering forest stands. In addition, the lowering water levels would result in encroachment of the forest along the lake shore. This cycle occurred many times in the history of this lake as indicated by fluctuations in the size of arcellacean populations.     

Ultimate bearing capacity of equally spaced multiple strip footings on cohesionless soils without surcharge

The ultimate bearing capacity of a group of equally spaced multiple rough strip footings was determined due to the contribution of soil unit weight. The analysis was performed by using an upper bound theorem of limit analysis in combination with finite elements and linear programming. Along the interfaces of all the triangular elements, velocity discontinuities were considered. The value of ξ_γ was found to increase continuously with a decrease in S/B, where (i) ξ_γ is the ratio of the failure load of an interfering strip footing of a given width (B) to that of a single isolated strip footing having the same width and (ii) S is the clear spacing between any two adjacent footings. The effect of the variation of spacing on ξ_γ was found to be very extensive for small values of S/B; ξ_γ approaches infinity at S/B=0. In all the cases, the velocity discontinuities were found to exist generally in a zone only around the footing edge. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian dynamic modelling for nonstationary hydroclimatic time series forecasting along with uncertainty quantification

Forecasting of hydrologic time series, with the quantification of uncertainty, is an important tool for adaptive water resources management. Nonstationarity, caused by climate forcing and other factors, such as change in physical properties of catchment (urbanization, vegetation change, etc.), makes the forecasting task too difficult to model by traditional Box–Jenkins approaches. In this paper, the potential of the Bayesian dynamic modelling approach is investigated through an application to forecast a nonstationary hydroclimatic time series using relevant climate index information. The target is the time series of the volume of Devil's Lake, located in North Dakota, USA, for which it was proved difficult to forecast and quantify the associated uncertainty by traditional methods. Two different Bayesian dynamic modelling approaches are discussed, namely, a constant model and a dynamic regression model (DRM). The constant model uses the information of past observed values of the same time series, whereas the DRM utilizes the information from a causal time series as an exogenous input. Noting that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index appears to co‐vary with the time series of Devil's Lake annual volume, its use as an exogenous predictor is explored in the case study. The results of both the Bayesian dynamic models are compared with those from the traditional Box–Jenkins time series modelling approach. Although, in this particular case study, it is observed that the DRM performs marginally better than traditional models, the major strength of Bayesian dynamic models lies in the quantification of prediction uncertainty, which is of great value in hydrology, particularly under the recent climate change scenario. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of point cloudiness and sunshine derived cloud cover in India

The relationship between point cloudiness and sunshine derived cloud cover in India is investigated using data collected from 33 stations. It has been found that point cloudiness, in general, overestimates sunshine derived cloud cover. The latitudinal dependence of the overestimation is discussed. The significance of the precise quantification of cloudiness in radiation budget studies is briefly mentioned.     

Petrological evidences of impact-induced shock metamorphism in the basement granitoids and rhyolitic melt breccia of Mohar area,Shivpuri district,Madhya Pradesh

The circular structure at Mohar (Dhala structure) in the western part of Bundelkhand Gneissic Complex, is marked by a prominent outlier of Kaimur sediments surrounded by low lying concentric sequence of sediments of Dhala Formation and basement granite breccia. This has been interpreted as a volcanic eruption related cauldron structure and meteoritic impact crater structure by various authors, on the basis of absence or presence of shock indicators in the clasts of a rhyolite-like rock that crops out scantily in the north western part of the structure. During the course of extensive sub-surface uranium exploration in this structure, the geoscientists of Atomic Minerals Directorate for Exploration and Research observed unequivocal and rampant evidences of shock metamorphic features for the first time in drill core samples of basement granitoids which constitute the bed rock for the rhyolite-like melt breccia, which overlies it. Published data of shock metamorphic features from this area are largely confined to the surface samples of the rhyolite-like melt rock, exposed in sparse outcrops. The shock metamorphic features recorded in the sub-surface granitoid bed rock samples during the present study, comprise planar deformation features (PDF) in quartz, feldspar, apatite and zircon, toasted, diaplectic, ladder-textured feldspars, selectively shock-melted feldspars and melt-veined quartz. The shock metamorphic features recorded in surface and sub-surface samples of the melt rock include ballen quartz, PDF in quartz clasts, toasted and diaplectic feldspar clasts shocked basic rock fragments with isotropised feldspars. Both the shocked bedrock granitoid and the melt rock bear uncharacteristic geochemical signatures with elevated K₂O, MgO and depleted CaO. The study also observes that the melt breccia overlying the granitoid bedrock also occurs as pocket-like patches at various depths within the granitoids. Thus, the present findings have helped in understanding the attributes of the basement granitoid and associated melt breccia, thereby linking the genesis of the latter by selective melting of the former, due to the process of impact. It reinforces the already propounded theory of impact as the likely cause for the development of the structure in the basement Bundelkhand granitoid that was later filled by sediments standing out presently as a mesa.     

A synoptic-climatic study of the onset of southwest monsoon over Mumbai

Surface and upper air synoptic features prevailing at the time of onset of southwest monsoon over Mumbai have been examined for a period of 50 years from 1947 to 1996. These synoptic situations have been found to fall under three broad categories. The study shows that on about 66% of the occasions, the onset of monsoon over Mumbai is caused by low pressure area forming over southeast and east central Arabian Sea as they move northwards, while on 28% of the occasions, the onset is due to the low pressure systems forming over northwest/head Bay of Bengal and their movement towards northwest/west northwest. Based on the findings of the study and the climatological aspects, a criterion for declaring onset over Mumbai has been suggested.