Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries

Given the severe impacts of extreme heat on natural and human systems, we attempt to quantify the likelihood that rising greenhouse gas concentrations will result in a new, permanent heat regime in which the coolest warm-season of the 21(st) century is hotter than the hottest warm-season of the late 20(th) century. Our analyses of global climate model experiments and observational data reveal that many areas of the globe are likely to permanently move into such a climate space over the next four decades, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase. In contrast to the common perception that high-latitude areas face the most accelerated response to global warming, our results demonstrate that in fact tropical areas exhibit the most immediate and robust emergence of unprecedented heat, with many tropical areas exhibiting a 50% likelihood of permanently moving into a novel seasonal heat regime in the next two decades. We also find that global climate models are able to capture the observed intensification of seasonal hot conditions, increasing confidence in the projection of imminent, permanent emergence of unprecedented heat.     

Pliocene climate change of the Southwest Pacific and the impact of ocean gateways

The transition from the early Pliocene “Warmhouse” towards the present “Icehouse” climate and the role of Gateway dynamics are intensively debated. Both, the constrictions of the Central American Seaway and the Indonesian Gateway affected ocean circulation and climate during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we use combined δ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca ratios of planktonic foraminifera (marine protozoa) from surface and subsurface levels to reconstruct the thermal structure and changes in salinities from the Southwest Pacific Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 590B from 6.5 to 2.5 Ma. Our data suggest a gradual cooling of ~ 2 °C and freshening of the sea surface during ~ 4.6–4 Ma with an increased meridional temperature gradient between the West Pacific Warm Pool and the Southwest Pacific when the closing of the Central American Seaway reached a critical threshold. After ~ 3.5 Ma, the restricted Indonesian Gateway might have amplified the East Australian Current, allowing enhanced heat transport towards the Southwest Pacific with reduced meridional temperature gradients when the global climate gradually cooled. At the same time our data suggest a cooling and freshening of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) or/and an increased northward flow of SAMW towards Site 590B, possibly a first step towards the present Antarctic Frontal System.     

Uranium–lead ages of apatite from iron oxide ores of the Bafq District,East-Central Iran

Iron oxide–apatite (IOA) deposits, often referred to as Kiruna-type iron ore deposits, are known to have formed from the Proterozoic to the Tertiary. They are commonly associated with calc–alkaline volcanic rocks and regional- to deposit-scale metasomatic alteration. In the Bafq District in east Central Iran, economic iron oxide–apatite deposits occur within felsic volcanic tuffs and volcanosedimentary sequences of Early Cambrian age. In order to constrain the age of formation of these ores and their relationship with the Early Cambrian magmatic event, we have determined the U–Pb apatite age for five occurrences in the Bafq District. In a ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U vs. ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U diagram, apatite free of or poor in inclusions of other minerals plots along the Concordia between 539 and 527 Ma with four out of five samples from one deposit clustering at the upper end of this range. For this deposit, we interpret this cluster to represent the age of apatite formation, whereas the spread towards younger ages may reflect either minor Pb loss or several events of IOA formation. Apatite with inclusions of monazite (±xenotime) yields disturbed systems with inclusions having developed after formation of the iron ore–apatite deposits, possibly as late as 130–140 Ma ago. Obtained apatite ages confirms that (IOA) and the apatite-rich rocks (apatites) of the Bafq district formed coevally with the Early Cambrian magmatic (-metasomatic) events.     

Biogenic carbon flows through the planktonic food web of the Amundsen Gulf (Arctic Ocean): A synthesis of field measurements and inverse modeling analyses

Major pathways of biogenic carbon (C) flow are resolved for the planktonic food web of the flaw lead polynya system of the Amundsen Gulf (southeast Beaufort Sea, Arctic Ocean) in spring-summer 2008. This period was relevant to study the effect of climate change on Arctic marine ecosystems as it was characterized by unusually low ice cover and warm sea surface temperature. Our synthesis relied on a mass balance estimate of gross primary production (GPP) of 52.5 ± 12.5 g C m⁻² calculated using the drawdown of nitrate and dissolved inorganic C, and a seasonal f-ratio of 0.64. Based on chlorophyll a biomass, we estimated that GPP was dominated by phytoplankton (93.6%) over ice algae (6.4%) and by large cells (>5 μm, 67.6%) over small cells (<5 μm, 32.4%). Ancillary in situ data on bacterial production, zooplankton biomass and respiration, herbivory, bacterivory, vertical particle fluxes, pools of particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC, DOC), net community production (NCP), as well as selected variables from the literature were used to evaluate the fate of size-fractionated GPP in the ecosystem. The structure and functioning of the planktonic food web was elucidated through inverse analysis using the mean GPP and the 95% confidence limits of every other field measurement as lower and upper constraints. The model computed a net primary production of 49.2 g C m⁻², which was directly channeled toward dominant calanoid copepods (i.e. Calanus hyperboreus 20%, Calanus glacialis 10%, and Metridia longa 10%), other mesozooplankton (12%), microzooplankton (14%), detrital POC (18%), and DOC (16%). Bacteria required 29.9 g C m⁻², a demand met entirely by the DOC derived from local biological activities. The ultimate C outflow comprised respiration fluxes (82% of the initial GPP), a small sedimentation (3%), and a modest residual C flow (15%) resulting from NCP, dilution and accumulation. The sinking C flux at the model limit depth (395 m) supplied 60% of the estimated benthic C demand (2.8 g C m⁻²), suggesting that the benthos relied partly on other C sources within the bottom boundary layer to fuel its activity. In summary, our results illustrate that the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice promotes the growth of pelagic communities in the Amundsen Gulf, which benefited from a ∼80% increase in GPP in spring-summer 2008 when compared to 2004 – a year of average ice conditions and relatively low GPP. However, 53% of the secondary production was generated within the microbial food web, the net ecological efficiency of zooplankton populations was not particularly high (13.4%), and the quantity of biogenic C available for trophic export remained low (6.6 g C m⁻²). Hence it is unlikely that the increase in lower food web productivity, such as the one observed in our study, could support new harvestable fishery resources in the offshore Beaufort Sea domain.     

Geological evolution of the West Luzon Basin (South China Sea,Philippines)

Interpretation of deep 2-D multi-channel seismic data sheds insights into the geological evolution of the West Luzon Basin, Philippines. This basin is a sediment-filled trough that is located between the island of Luzon and the outer arc high of the west Luzon subduction zone. High-amplitude, low-frequency reflection bands mark the acoustic basement. The basement, at about 6 s (TWT), is dissected by normal faults with some of them being inverted in a later phase of deformation. The sedimentary successions, overlying the basement are stratified with partly chaotic structures and discontinuous reflectors. Five regional unconformities separate major stratigraphic units. Grid calculations of our seismic data reveal variations in the sedimentation pattern of the basin with a shift of the deposition centre from east to west and backwards during formation. A distinct bottom-simulating reflector is commonly observed. Because the northern boundary of the continental fragments to the South of the West Luzon Basin is unclear we speculate that the basin may be (partly) underlain by continental crust. The continental crust was affected by rifting prior to and during the opening of the South China Sea and the basin was overprinted at a later stage by a forearc structural setting when subduction was initiated.     

Mesozoic (Late Jurassic) palynomorphs and charcoal from a sandstone pebble from Quaternary glacial deposits of the North Sea

The palynological contents as well as macroscopic charcoal fragments from a calcareous sandstone pebble from Quaternary glacial deposits of the North Sea (80 km SW of the Dogger Bank) are described. The taxonomic composition of the palynoflora points to a Late Jurassic (or Late Jurassic/Early Cretaceous) age of the sandstone. The charcoal is interpreted as direct evidence of palaeo‐wildfire occurring during this period in the source area of the sediments of this particular sandstone. This finding, together with already published data on Mesozoic deposits, allows to conclude that wildfires were obviously widespread during this period in the area of the modern day North Sea and adjacent areas. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ries crater and suevite revisited—Observations and modeling Part I: Observations

We report results of an interdisciplinary project devoted to the 26 km‐diameter Ries crater and to the genesis of suevite. Recent laboratory analyses of “crater suevite” occurring within the central crater basin and of “outer suevite” on top of the continuous ejecta blanket, as well as data accumulated during the past 50 years, are interpreted within the boundary conditions imposed by a comprehensive new effort to model the crater formation and its ejecta deposits by computer code calculations (Artemieva et al. 2013). The properties of suevite are considered on all scales from megascopic to submicroscopic in the context of its geological setting. In a new approach, we reconstruct the minimum/maximum volumes of all allochthonous impact formations (108/116 km³), of suevite (14/22 km³), and the total volume of impact melt (4.9/8.0 km³) produced by the Ries impact event prior to erosion. These volumes are reasonably compatible with corresponding values obtained by numerical modeling. Taking all data on modal composition, texture, chemistry, and shock metamorphism of suevite, and the results of modeling into account, we arrive at a new empirical model implying five main consecutive phases of crater formation and ejecta emplacement. Numerical modeling indicates that only a very small fraction of suevite can be derived from the “primary ejecta plume,” which is possibly represented by the fine‐grained basal layer of outer suevite. The main mass of suevite was deposited from a “secondary plume” induced by an explosive reaction (“fuel‐coolant interaction”) of impact melt with water and volatile‐rich sedimentary rocks within a clast‐laden temporary melt pool. Both melt pool and plume appear to be heterogeneous in space and time. Outer suevite appears to be derived from an early formed, melt‐rich and clast‐poor plume region rich in strongly shocked components (melt ? clasts) and originating from an upper, more marginal zone of the melt pool. Crater suevite is obviously deposited from later formed, clast‐rich and melt‐poor plumes dominated by unshocked and weakly shocked clasts and derived from a deeper, central zone of the melt pool. Genetically, we distinguish between “primary suevite” which includes dike suevite, the lower sublayer of crater suevite, and possibly a basal layer of outer suevite, and “secondary suevite” represented by the massive upper sublayer of crater suevite and the main mass of outer suevite.     

Major and trace element geochemistry of Lake Bogoria and Lake Nakuru,Kenya, during extreme draught

The physico-chemical properties of water samples from the two athalassic endorheic lakes Bogoria and Nakuru in Kenya were analysed. Surface water samples were taken between July 2008 and October 2009 in weekly intervals from each lake. The following parameters were determined: pH, salinity, electric conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), the major cations (FAAS and ICP-OES) and the major anions (IC), as well as certain trace elements (ICP-OES). Samples of superficial sediments were taken in October 2009 and examined using Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) for their major and trace element content including rare earth elements (REE). Both lakes are highly alkaline with a dominance of Na > K > Si > Ca in cations and HCO₃ > CO₃ > Cl > F > SO₄ in anions. Both lakes also exhibited high concentrations of Mo, As and fluoride. Due to an extreme draught from March to October 2009, the water level of Lake Nakuru dropped significantly. This created drastic evapoconcentration, with the total salinity rising from about 20‰ up to 63‰. Most parameters (DOC, Na, K, Ca, F, Mo and As) increased with falling water levels. A clear change in the quality of DOC was observed, followed by an almost complete depletion of dissolved Fe from the water phase. In Lake Bogoria the evapoconcentration effects were less pronounced (total salinity changed from about 40‰ to 48‰). The distributions of REE in the superficial sediments of Lake Nakuru and Lake Bogoria are presented here for the first time. The results show a high abundance of the REE and a very distinct Eu depletion of Eu/Eu* = 0.33–0.45.     

The use of tracers to assess drill-mud penetration depth into sandstone cores during deep drilling: method development and application

For the utilization of deep saline aquifers in the frame of geotechnical use, such as geological sequestration of CO₂, H₂ or energy storage, a baseline characterization of pristine reservoir rock cores is required to monitor changes in the indigenous microbial communities and pore fluids, and to study alterations in rock characteristics resulting from interaction with geological storage technologies. However, drilling procedures and technical fluids, particularly drill mud, are sources of core contamination. To measure the penetration of drill mud into the cores, three tracers (fluorescein, microspheres, and 4′,6-diamidino-2-phenylindole stained bacteria) were tested under laboratory conditions. The flow of drill mud into core samples was induced by applying uniaxial pressure differentials to the core, and the penetration depth was microscopically determined for each tracer. Fluorescein was extracted from the rock samples and quantified fluorometrically. The results indicate that all tested tracers are suitable for tracking drill-mud penetration. The actual penetration depth seems to be related to differences in mineral composition and texture as well as microfractures. Among all tested tracers, fluorescein labelling is the simplest, cheapest and most accurate method for analyzing the contamination of rock cores by technical fluids. The application of this tracer was successfully applied during two deep drilling campaigns at the CO₂ storage pilot site in Ketzin, Germany. The results highlight that the use of tracers is indispensable to ensure the quality of core samples for microbiological and biogeochemical analysis.     

Altitude variation of the plasmapause signature in the main ionospheric trough

The projection of the plasmapause magnetic-field lines to low altitudes, where the light-ion chemistry is dominated by O⁺, tends to occur near the minimum electron density in the main (midlatitude) electron density trough at night. With increasing altitude in the trough, where H⁺ emerges as the dominant ion on the low-latitude boundary, we have found cases where the plasmapause field lines are located on the sharp low-latitude side of the trough as expected if this topside ionosphere H⁺ distribution varies in step with the plasmapause gradient in the distant plasmasphere. These conclusions are based on near-equatorial crossings of the plasmapause (corresponding to the steep gradient in the dominant species H⁺) by the Explorer-45 satellite as determined from electric-field measurements by Maynard and Cauffman in the early 1970s and ISIS-2 ionospheric topside-sounder measurements. The former data have now been converted to digital form and made available at http://nssdcftp.gsfc.nasa.gov. The latter provide samples of nearly coincident observations of ionospheric main trough crossings near the same magnetic-field lines of the Explorer 45-determined equatorial plasmapause. The ISIS-2 vertical electron density profiles are used to infer where the F-region transitions from an O⁺ to a H⁺ dominated plasma through the main trough boundaries.