Hydrologic metrics for status‐and‐trends monitoring in urban and urbanizing watersheds

Local governmental agencies are increasingly undertaking potentially costly “status‐and‐trends” monitoring to evaluate the effectiveness of stormwater control measures and land‐use planning strategies or to satisfy regulatory requirements. Little guidance is presently available for such efforts, and so we have explored the application, interpretation, and temporal limitations of well‐established hydrologic metrics of runoff changes from urbanization, making use of an unusually long‐duration, high‐quality data set from the Pacific Northwest (USA) with direct applicability to urban and urbanizing watersheds. Three metrics previously identified for their utility in identifying hydrologic conditions with biological importance that respond to watershed urbanization—T_Qmean (the fraction of time that flows exceed the mean annual discharge), the Richards‐Baker Index (characterizing flashiness relative to the mean discharge), and the annual tally of wet‐season day‐to‐day flow reversals (the total number of days that reverse the prior days' increasing or decreasing trend)—are all successful in stratifying watersheds across a range of urbanization, as measured by total contributing area of urban development. All metrics respond with statistical significance to multidecadal trends in urbanization, but none detect trends in watershed‐scale urbanization over the course of a single decade. This suggests a minimum period over which dependable trends in hydrologic alteration (or improvement) can be detected with confidence. The metrics also prove less well suited to urbanizing watersheds in a semi‐arid climate, with only flow reversals showing a response consistent with prior findings from more humid regions. We also explore the use of stage as a surrogate for discharge in calculating these metrics, recognizing potentially significant agency cost savings in data collection with minimal loss of information. This approach is feasible but cannot be implemented under current data‐reporting practices, requiring measurement of water‐depth values and preservation of the full precision of the original recorded data. With these caveats, however, hydrologic metrics based on stage should prove as or more useful, at least in the context of status‐and‐trends monitoring, as those based on subsequent calculations of discharge.     

The effects of thermal stress and fluid pressure on induced seismicity during stimulation to production within fractured reservoirs

We use a continuum model of reservoir evolution to explore the interaction of coupled thermal, hydraulic and chemical processes that influence the evolution of seismicity within a fractured reservoir from stimulation to production. Events occur from energy release on seeded fractures enabling moment magnitude, frequency and spatial distribution to be determined with time. Event magnitudes vary in the range ?2 to +2 with the largest event size (~2) corresponding to the largest fracture size (~500 m) and a prescribed stress drop of 9 MPa. Modelled b‐values (~0.6–0.7) also correspond to observations (~0.7–0.8) for response in the Cooper Basin (Australia). We track the hydrodynamic and thermal fronts to define causality in the triggering of seismicity. The hydrodynamic front moves twice as fast as the thermal front and envelops the triggered seismicity at early time (days to month) – with higher flow rates correlating with larger magnitude events. For later time (month to years), thermal drawdown and potentially chemical influences principally trigger the seismicity, but result in a reduction in both the number of events and their magnitudes.     

Re‐orientation of the extension direction and pure extensional faulting at oblique rift margins: comparison between the Main Ethiopian Rift and laboratory experiments

In this study, we draw on a unique combination of well‐resolved fault‐slip data and earthquake focal mechanisms to constrain spatial variations in style of faulting in the obliquely extending Main Ethiopian Rift, East Africa. These data show that both boundary and internal faults – oblique and orthogonal to the plate divergence (PD) respectively – exhibit almost pure dip‐slip motion, and indicate significant local deflection in orientation of the extension direction at rift margins. Scaled analogue models closely replicate the multidisciplinary observations from the rift and suggest that the process is controlled by the presence of a deep‐seated, pre‐existing weakness – oblique to the direction of PD – that is able to cause a local rotation in the orientation of the extension direction at rift margins. Minor counterclockwise block rotations are required to accommodate the difference in slip direction along the different fault systems, as supported by existing and new palaeomagnetic data from the rift.     

Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. I. Predicting wind speed

Surface wind speed is a key climatic variable of interest in many applications, including assessments of storm-related infrastructure damage and feasibility studies of wind power generation. In this work and a companion paper (van der Kamp et al. 2011), the relationship between local surface wind and large-scale climate variables was studied using multiple regression analysis. The analysis was performed using monthly mean station data from British Columbia, Canada and large-scale climate variables (predictors) from the NCEP-2 reanalysis over the period 1979–2006. Two regression-based methodologies were compared. The first relates the annual cycle of station wind speed to that of the large-scale predictors at the closest grid box to the station. It is shown that the relatively high correlation coefficients obtained with this method are attributable to the dominant influence of region-wide seasonality, and thus contain minimal information about local wind behaviour at the stations. The second method uses interannually varying data for individual months, aggregated into seasons, and is demonstrated to contain intrinsically local information about the surface winds. The dependence of local wind speed upon large-scale predictors over a much larger region surrounding the station was also explored, resulting in 2D maps of spatial correlations. The cross-validated explained variance using the interannual method was highest in autumn and winter, ranging from 30 to 70% at about a dozen stations in the region. Reasons for the limited predictive skill of the regressions and directions for future progress are reviewed.     

Multiproxy evidence of an early Holocene (8.2 kyr) climate oscillation in central Nova Scotia,Canada

An early Holocene lake sediment record from central Nova Scotia contains a minerogenic oscillation that is closely correlative with the 8.2 kyr event (ca. 8200 cal. yr BP), an event that has not been reported elsewhere in Atlantic Canada. A variety of biological and sedimentological indicators have been examined to characterise autochthonous and allochthonous changes that occurred during this time. The minerogenic upper oscillation (UO, ca. 8400 cal. yr BP) is marked by an increase in the chrysophyte:diatom ratio. Following the oscillation, the diatom community reflects a shift to more productive, less acidic conditions. The pollen record shows no major response to this short‐lived event. Lithostratigraphic analyses indicates that the UO is characterised by an increase in clastic content, magnetic susceptibility and mean sediment grain size, all indicators of changing environmental conditions, most likely the result of regional cooling. The Taylor Lake record adds to a growing body of evidence for a widespread, hemispheric climate oscillation at 8.2 kyr. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A steady-state model of NEA binaries formed by tidal disruption of gravitational aggregates

We present results of a simulation of a steady-state binary near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population. This study combines previous work on tidal disruption of gravitational aggregates [Walsh, K.J., Richardson, D.C., 2006. Icarus 180, 201-216] with a Monte Carlo simulation of NEA planetary encounters. Evolutionary effects include tidal evolution and binary disruption from close planetary encounters. The results show that with the best known progenitor (small Main Belt asteroids) shape and spin distributions, and current estimates of NEA lifetime and encounter probabilities, that tidal disruption should account for approximately 1-2% of NEAs being binaries. Given the best observed estimate of a ∼15% binary NEA fraction, we conclude that there are other formation mechanisms that contribute significantly to this population. We also present the expected distribution of binary orbital and physical properties for the steady-state binary NEAs formed by tidal disruption. We discuss the effects on binary fraction and properties due to changes in the least constrained parameters, and other possible effects on our model that could account for differences between the presented results and the observed binary population. Finally, we model possible effects of a significant population of binaries migrating to the near-Earth population from the Main Belt.     

Seasonal variability in organic substances in surface and cave waters at Marengo Cave,Indiana

Water samples from forest soils and a shallow cave underlying them were collected for the hydrological year 1996–1997. The soil waters did not display much seasonal variability in concentrations of organic substances in them but the cave waters yielded distinct highest levels in the spring and autumn seasons. The important controls on the amount of organic substances reaching the cave are the seasonal fluctuation in volume of the percolation waters and the soil's ability to provide organic material for these waters. Fluorescence studies of the organic compounds isolated from these waters revealed shorter peak excitation and emission wavelengths for the cave waters than for the soil waters, a result of both differences in concentration and probably also of significant change in the proportional organic assemblages in the waters. Precipitation appears to affect the fluorescence in both waters, with the dry autumn producing the highest yields. Molecular size fractionation revealed how the larger hydrophobic compounds are preferentially removed from the water before it reaches the cave, with the consequence that the smaller hydrophilic compounds become the dominant fluorophore there. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.