On the importance of initializing the stochastic part of the atmosphere for forecasting the 1997/1998 El Ni?o

The importance of initializing atmospheric intra-seasonal (stochastic) variations for prediction of the onset of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o is examined using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled seasonal forecast model. A suite of 9-month forecasts was initialized on the 1st December 1996. Observed ocean initial conditions were used together with five different atmospheric initial conditions that sample a range of possible initial states of intra-seasonal (stochastic) variability, especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is considered the primary stochastic variability of relevance to El Ni?o evolution. The atmospheric initial states were generated from a suite of atmosphere-only integrations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST). To the extent that low frequency variability of the tropical atmosphere is forced by slow variations in SST, these atmospheric states should all represent realistic low frequency atmospheric variability that was present in December 1996. However, to the extent that intra-seasonal variability is not constrained by SST, they should capture a range of intra-seasonal states, especially variations in the activity, phase and amplitude of the MJO. For each of these five states, a 20-member ensemble of coupled model forecasts was generated by the addition of small random perturbations to the SST field at the initial time. The ensemble mean from all five sets of forecasts resulted in El Ni?o but three of the sets produced substantially greater warming by months 4?C5 in the NINO3.4 region compared to the other two. The warmer group stemmed from stronger intra-seasonal westerly wind anomalies associated with the MJO that propagated eastward into the central Pacific during the first 1?C2?months of the forecast. These were largely absent in the colder group; the weakest of the colder group developed strong easterly wind anomalies, relative to the grand ensemble mean, that propagated into the central Pacific early in the forecast, thereby generating significantly weaker downwelling Kelvin waves in comparison to the warmer group. The strong reduction in downwelling Kelvin waves in the weakest case acted to limit the warming in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a ??Modoki?? type El Ni?o that is more focused in the central Pacific. Our results suggest that the intra-seasonal stochastic component of the atmospheric initial condition has an important and potentially predictable impact on the forecasts of the initial warming and flavour of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o. However, to the extent that atmospheric intra-seasonal variability is not predictable beyond a month or two, these results imply a limit to the accuracy with which the strength and perhaps the spatial distribution of an El Ni?o can ultimately be predicted. These results do not preclude a predictable role of the MJO and other intra-seasonal stochastic variability at longer lead times if some aspects of the stochastic variability are preconditioned by the evolving state of El Ni?o or other low frequency boundary forcing.     

Investment and regional development in Post-Mao China

This paper investigates China's changing investment systems, investment patterns and their impact on regional development. It reveals that the reforms have brought profound changes to Mao's investment system and investment allocation. Investment decentralization has given localities considerable autonomy and incentives in economic development. Budgetary investment has declined dramatically while enterprise funds, bank loans and foreign investment have increased significantly in China. An increasing amount of these new sources of fixed investment have been channeled to more profitable non-state sectors. In terms of regional changes, China's coastal provinces, particularly Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have recorded more rapid investment growth and have much higher per capita investment than many interior provinces. In addition, investment in the coastal provinces relies less on the state and is more profitable than that in the poorer interior. The sectoral and regional unevenness of fixed investment has significantly contributed to the uneven regional development in China. This research also has important theoretical implications, as it shows that regional investment is neither a cumulative causation process nor a convergent process, but influenced greatly by government policy, local states and local conditions, and foreign capital. An analysis of these factors should improve the understanding of investment allocation and regional development, especially for the transition economy in which the control and capacity of the central state has declined, while local and global forces have emerged as equally important forces shaping spatial change.     

Simulating stochastically excited oscillations: The mode lifetime of ξ Hya

The discovery of solar-like oscillations in the giant star ξ Hya (G7 III) was reported by Frandsen et al. (2002). Their frequency analysis was very limited due to alias problems in the data set (caused by single-site observations). The extent to which the aliasing affected their analysis was unclear due to the unknown damping time of the stellar oscillation modes. In this paper we describe a simulator created to generate time series of stochastically excited oscillations, which takes as input an arbitrary window function and includes both white and non-white noise. We also outline a new method to compare a large number of simulated time series with an observed time series to determine the damping time, amplitude, and limited information on the degree of the stochastically excited modes. For ξ Hya we find the most likely amplitude to be ∼ 2 m s⁻¹, in good agreement with theory (Houdek and Gough, 2002), and the most likely damping time to be ∼ 2 days, which is much shorter than the theoretical value of 15–20 days calculated by Houdek and Gough (2002).     

Effects of land‐cover changes on the hydrological response of interior Columbia River basin forested catchments

The topographically explicit distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM) is used to simulate hydrological effects of changes in land cover for four catchments, ranging from 27 to 1033 km², within the Columbia River basin. Surface fluxes (stream flow and evapotranspiration) and state variables (soil moisture and snow water equivalent) corresponding to historical (1900) and current (1990) vegetation are compared. In addition a sensitivity analysis, where the catchments are covered entirely by conifers at different maturity stages, was conducted. In general, lower leaf‐area index (LAI) resulted in higher snow water equivalent, more stream flow and less evapotranspiration. Comparisons with the macroscale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, which parameterizes, rather than explicitly represents, topographic effects, show that runoff predicted by DHSVM is more sensitive to land‐cover changes than is runoff predicted by VIC. This is explained by model differences in soil parameters and evapotranspiration calculations, and by the more explicit representation of saturation excess in DHSVM and its higher sensitivity to LAI changes in the calculation of evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical studies of copper-organic complexes isolated from estuarine waters using C18 reverse-phase liquid chromatography

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) and dissolved copper-organic complexes were isolated from the estuarine waters of Narragansett Bay, RI, using reverse-phase liquid chromatography employing C₁₈ Sep-Pak cartridges (Waters Associates). The cartridges were found to have a constant retention efficiency for processing ? 1-l volumes of seawater. Fractionation of the isolated material, by sequential elution of the Sep-Pak with water: methanol mixtures of increasing organic solvent concentration, yielded a fraction of the organic matter with a specific copper activity six times greater than the overall activity for the isolated DOM. Analysis of this fraction by high performance liquid chromatography suggested that the organic components are of intermediate polarity and have appreciable aromatic character.An investigation of the protonation characteristics of the isolated complexes indicated that most of the copper is associated with a broad range of acidic sites on the DOM. Analysis by electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy confirmed the organic association of the isolated copper and also suggested the presence of several types of binding sites which probably involve oxygen donor ligands.Studies of the exchange of ⁶⁴Cu with these binding sites on the isolated DOM indicated that 70% of the sites undergo rapid exchange with copper in seawater while 20% of these sites did not exchange in a 24-h time period.     

Exact formulas for approximating variogram function integrals

The application of regionalized variables requires the estimation of the variogram function and the evaluation of its integral. By representing the variogram by a polygonal function the integral may be easily approximated by closed form representations of polygonal integrals. This approach provides a basis for more extensive statistical evaluation not evident in existing approximation methods. This paper provides the closed form representations for two-dimensional variogram functions whose domain is represented by a finite collection of rectangles.