Using Ancillary Information to Improve Hypocenter Estimation: Bayesian Single Event Location (BSEL)

We have developed and tested an algorithm, Bayesian Single Event Location (BSEL), for estimating the location of a seismic event. The main driver for our research is the inadequate representation of ancillary information in the hypocenter estimation procedure. The added benefit is that we have also addressed instability issues often encountered with historical NLR solvers (e.g., non-convergence or seismically infeasible results). BSEL differs from established nonlinear regression techniques by using a Bayesian prior probability density function (prior PDF) to incorporate ancillary physical basis constraints about event location. P-wave arrival times from seismic events are used in the development. Depth, a focus of this paper, may be modeled with a prior PDF (potentially skewed) that captures physical basis bounds from surface wave observations. This PDF is constructed from a Rayleigh wave depth excitation eigenfunction that is based on the observed minimum period from a spectrogram analysis and estimated near-source elastic parameters. For example, if the surface wave is an Rg phase, it potentially provides a strong constraint for depth, which has important implications for remote monitoring of nuclear explosions. The proposed Bayesian algorithm is illustrated with events that demonstrate its congruity with established hypocenter estimation methods and its application potential. The BSEL method is applied to three events: 1) A shallow Mw 4 earthquake that occurred near Bardwell, KY on June 6, 2003, 2) the Mw 5.6 earthquake of July 26, 2005 that occurred near Dillon, MT, and 3) a deep Mw 5.7 earthquake that occurred off the coast of Japan on April 22, 1980. A strong Rg was observed from the Bardwell, KY earthquake that places very strong constraints on depth and origin time. No Rg was observed for the Dillon, MT earthquake, but we used the minimum observed period of a Rayleigh wave (7 seconds) to reduce the depth and origin time uncertainty. Because the Japan event was deep, there is no observed surface wave energy. We utilize the prior generated from the Dillon, MT event to show that even in the case when a prior is inappropriately applied, high quality data will overcome its influence and result in a reasonable hypocenter estimate.     

A comparative simulation study of coupled THM processes and their effect on fractured rock permeability around nuclear waste repositories

This paper presents an international, multiple-code, simulation study of coupled thermal, hydrological, and mechanical (THM) processes and their effect on permeability and fluid flow in fractured rock around heated underground nuclear waste emplacement drifts. Simulations were conducted considering two types of repository settings (1) open emplacement drifts in relatively shallow unsaturated volcanic rock, and (2) backfilled emplacement drifts in deeper saturated crystalline rock. The results showed that for the two assumed repository settings, the dominant mechanism of changes in rock permeability was thermal–mechanically induced closure (reduced aperture) of vertical fractures, caused by thermal stress resulting from repository-wide heating of the rock mass. The magnitude of thermal–mechanically induced changes in permeability was more substantial in the case of an emplacement drift located in a relatively shallow, low-stress environment where the rock is more compliant, allowing more substantial fracture closure during thermal stressing. However, in both of the assumed repository settings in this study, the thermal–mechanically induced changes in permeability caused relatively small changes in the flow field, with most changes occurring in the vicinity of the emplacement drifts.     

The Black Band Disease of Atlantic Reef Corals.

Abstract. The cyanophyte (Cyanobaclerium) that causes black band disease of Atlantic reef corals is described under the name Phormidium corallyticum , new species (family Oscillatoriaceae) , and its generic placement is discussed from the standpoint of the GEITLERian (classical) and D rouet systems. Distinguishing characters include densely interwoven filaments that form a blackish mat and trichomes without significant cell wall constrictions, almost isodiametric cells (4.2 μm mean width, 4.0μm mean length) tapering end cells, and thin (0.1 μm or less) mucilaginous wall coating. Transmission electron microscopy shows typical cyanophyte cell walls, sheath, nucleoplasm, and cytoplasmic inclusions, but an unusual thylakoid of straight, and, as seen in cell cross section, radiating lamellae. The dark coloration is due to a high concentration of phycocyanin and some phycoerythrin. The species is similar to Oscillatoria (= Phormidium) submembranacea , which differs in several morphological features and does not infect coral tissue. It is concluded that Phormidium should be used for this and related species that have external mucilage but not the distinct sheath found in Lyngbya.     

Up Against the Law: Legal Structuring of Political Opportunities in Neighborhood Opposition to Group Home Siting in Massachusetts

Abstract

Conflicts over siting of group homes for people transitioning out of homelessness or struggling with addiction illustrate the multiscalar dynamics at play between locally-based activism and supra-local laws. In Massachusetts, the state-scale legal environment limits the effectiveness of opposition to group housing; nonetheless, such opposition occurs at the municipal level. Drawing on media accounts, official documents, and interviews with stakeholders in conflicts over group home siting in Worcester, Massachusetts, I investigate the dynamics between neighborhood place claims, the responses of the local state, and the state-wide laws governing group home siting. Examining the legal frameworks relevant to social movement grievances demonstrate that law structures the political opportunities available for protest and local government response.     

Climate change and population history in the Pacific Lowlands of Southern Mesoamerica

Core MAN015 from Pacific coastal Guatemala contains sediments accumulated in a mangrove setting over the past 6500 yr. Chemical, pollen, and phytolith data, which indicate conditions of estuarine deposition and terrigenous inputs from adjacent dry land, document Holocene climate variability that parallels the Maya lowlands and other New World tropical locations. Human population history in this region may be driven partly by climate variation: sedentary human populations spread rapidly through the estuarine zone of the lower coast during a dry and variable 4th millennium B.P. Population growth and cultural florescence during a long, relatively moist period (2800–1200 B.P.) ended around 1200 B.P., a drying event that coincided with the Classic Maya collapse.     

“Placing” Interviews: Location and Scales of Power in Qualitative Research

For qualitative researchers, selecting appropriate sites in which to conduct interviews may seem to be a relatively simple research design issue. In fact it is a complicated decision with wide‐reaching implications. In this paper, we argue that the interview site itself embodies and constitutes multiple scales of spatial relations and meaning, which construct the power and positionality of participants in relation to the people, places, and interactions discussed in the interview. We illustrate how observation and analysis of interview sites can offer new insights with respect to research questions, help researchers understand and interpret interview material, and highlight particular ethical considerations that researchers need to address.     

The non-oxidative dissolution of galena nanocrystals: Insights into mineral dissolution rates as a function of grain size, shape, and aggregation state

The acidic, non-oxidative dissolution of galena (PbS) nanocrystals has been studied in detail using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to follow the evolution of the size and shape of the nanocrystals before and after dissolution experiments, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) to follow particle chemistry, and dissolution rate analysis to compare dissolution rates between nanocrystalline and bulk galena. Dissolution characteristics were also studied as a function of nanocrystal access to bulk vs. confined solution due to the degree of proximity of next-nearest grains. Nearly monodisperse galena nanocyrstals with an average diameter of 14.4 nm were synthesized for this study, and samples were exposed to pH 3, deoxygenated HCl solutions for up to 3 h at 25 °C. Detailed XPS analysis showed the nanocrystals to be free of unwanted contamination, surface complexes, and oxidative artifacts, except for small amounts of lead-containing oxidation species in both pre- and post-dissolution samples which have been observed in fresh, natural bulk galena. Depending on the calculation methods used, galena nanocrystals, under the conditions of our experiments, dissolve at a surface area normalized rate of one to two orders of magnitude faster than bulk galena under similar conditions. We believe that this reflects the higher percentage of reactive surface area on nanocrystalline surfaces vs. surfaces on larger crystals. In addition, it was shown that {1 1 1} and {1 1 0} faces dissolve faster than {1 0 0} faces on nanocrystals, rationalized by the average coordination number of ions on each of these faces. Finally, dissolution was greatly inhibited for galena nanocrystal surfaces that were closely adjacent (1-2 nm, or less) to other nanocyrstals, a direct indication of the properties of aqueous solutions and ion transport in extremely confined spaces and relevant to dissolution variations that have been suspected within aggregates.     

The weathering and element fluxes from active volcanoes to the oceans: a Montserrat case study

The eruptions of the Soufrière Hills volcano on Montserrat (Lesser Antilles) from 1995 to present have draped parts of the island in fresh volcaniclastic deposits. Volcanic islands such as Montserrat are an important component of global weathering fluxes, due to high relief and runoff and high chemical and physical weathering rates of fresh volcaniclastic material. We examine the impact of the recent volcanism on the geochemistry of pre-existing hydrological systems and demonstrate that the initial chemical weathering yield of fresh volcanic material is higher than that from older deposits within the Lesser Antilles arc. The silicate weathering may have consumed 1.3% of the early CO₂ emissions from the Soufrière Hills volcano. In contrast, extinct volcanic edifices such as the Centre Hills in central Montserrat are a net sink for atmospheric CO₂ due to continued elevated weathering rates relative to continental silicate rock weathering. The role of an arc volcano as a source or sink for atmospheric CO₂ is therefore critically dependent on the stage it occupies in its life cycle, changing from a net source to a net sink as the eruptive activity wanes. While the onset of the eruption has had a profound effect on the groundwater around the Soufrière Hills center, the geochemistry of springs in the Centre Hills 5 km to the north appear unaffected by the recent volcanism. This has implications for the potential risk, or lack thereof, of contamination of potable water supplies for the island’s inhabitants.