中国生产控制型产业减排的居民福利和区域影响

基于SAM均衡建模方法,建立面向居民福利研究的中国动态多区域社会公平CGE政策模拟模型,对比分析自然情景、生产控制型减排政策情景和最优增长情景下的区域和居民福利变化。研究发现减排政策存在明显的增长率区域分异,这将破坏在自然增长下存在的区域收敛力,导致中国区域之间的差距再度被拉大。面向减排的投资控制政策短期对于居民收入的不利影响较小,但长期影响不容忽视,需要进行居民收入保护。由于城镇退休居民和农村劳动居民已经具备针对性的养老保障政策和“三农政策”保护收入增长,其总体福利受减排政策的冲击较小,因此缺乏相应政策支持的城镇劳动居民应该是收入保护的优先考虑群体。模拟显示减排政策更有利于代际和城乡人均收入差距的缩小,但考虑到减排带来的绝对收入水平下降,不能过于乐观估计这种差距缩小效应。     

巴丹吉林沙漠北缘拐子湖流沙下垫面近地层湍流强度和陆面过程特征

利用巴丹吉林沙漠北缘拐子湖流沙下垫面2013年7、10月和2014年1、4月的湍流通量资料,计算并分析了研究区近地层湍流强度,同时针对风速分量、温度、水汽和CO₂归一化标准差随稳定度的变化关系和总体输送系数等陆面过程特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）风速各分量的湍流强度均随风速的增加逐渐减小,风速处于2 m·s^-1以下时湍流发展最为旺盛。湍流强度主要由水平方向风速分量决定,垂直方向风速的作用较小,且近中性和不稳定层结利于湍流的发展。与其他地区相比,平坦且没有建筑物的沙漠地区,机械湍流较弱,湍流强度相应较小。（2）风速各分量的归一化标准差与稳定度（z/L）均满足1/3次方函数规律,其中垂直方向风速分量的拟合曲线方程较好。（3）动量输送系数C_d具有明显的夏季高、冬季低的变化状态且各月的日变化形态均呈夜间低、日间高的循环形态。热量输送系数C_h的不同月份日变化间并没有明显的排列次序,且日出日落前后具有明显的波动。不稳定层结时,C_d和C_h均随风速的增加逐渐减小;稳定层结时,C_d和C_h均随着风速的增加逐渐上升。     

京津冀及周边一般性降水与短时强降水特征对比

京津冀及周边地区为我国北方强降水的多发区域。基于1966—2021年87个国家级气象站逐小时降水资料对比分析暖季5—9月一般性降水和短时强降水的空间分布及年际变化,并基于1980—2021年298个气象站分析日变化等特征。结果表明：京津冀及周边地区的渤海西侧平原区域存在短时强降水强度极端性显著区域。渤海西侧平原以外区域两类降水平均小时降水量、强度和降水时次百分比均呈增长趋势,但短时强降水的增幅更高,而渤海西侧平原区域趋势则均不明显。渤海西侧平原区域和渤海西侧平原以外区域的一般性降水平均小时降水量和降水时次百分比日变化幅度显著弱于短时强降水;7—9月渤海西侧平原区域降水夜发性更明显,且相比另一区域半峰持续时间多出约2 h。2005年后渤海西侧平原区域和渤海西侧平原以外区域短时强降水平均小时降水量和降水时次百分比下午时段均明显减弱,但午夜后至清晨明显增加。     

中国工业烟粉尘排放时空演化及其影响因素

采用空间分析和空间杜宾模型等方法,研究1999—2017年中国工业烟粉尘排放时空演化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:①中国工业烟粉尘排放空间分布差异明显,其排放的基尼系数和污染物分布指数均呈现下降态势,空间集中程度有所缓和。②中国工业烟粉尘排放空间分布呈东北-西南走向,其排放中心不断由东南向西北方向迁移。③中国工业烟粉尘排放存在空间相关性和空间溢出效应,其冷热点区空间分布发生显著变化。④能源消耗、第二产业比重、人口密度和经济发展水平的提升将会增加工业烟粉尘排放,而外资水平、治理技术水平和环境规制力度的提升则有利于减少工业烟粉尘排放。     

Effect of a thermokarst lake on soil physical properties and infiltration processes in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

Changes in the hydrological processes in alpine soil constitute one of the several key problems encountered with studying watershed hydrology and ecosystem stability against the background of global warming. A typically developing thermokarst lake was chosen as a subject for a study using model simulation based on observations of soil physical properties, infiltration processes, and soil moisture. The results showed that the selected thermokarst lake imposed certain changes on the soil infiltration processes and, with the degree of impact intensifying, the initial infiltration rate decreased. The greatest reduction was achieved in the area of moderate impact. However, the stable infiltration rate and cumulative infiltration gradually increased in the surface layer at a depth of 10 and 20 cm, both decreasing initially and then increasing, which is correlated significantly with soil textures. Moreover, the cumulative infiltration changed in line with steady infiltration rate. Based on a comparative analysis, the Horton model helps better understand the effect on the soil infiltration processes of the cold alpine meadow close to the chosen thermokarst lake. In conclusion, the formation of the thermokarst lake reduced the water holding capacity of the alpine meadow soil and caused the hydraulic conductivity to increase, resulting in the reduction of runoff capacity in the area of the thermokarst lake.     

Development of gullies and sediment production in the black soil region of northeastern China

Gully erosion is an important environmental hazard in the black soil region of northeastern China. It is a primary sediment source in the region which needs appropriate soil conservation practices. Gully incision in rolling hills typical of this region was monitored using real-time kinematic GPS to assess the rates of gully development and the resultant sediment production. From 2002 to 2005, gully heads in the study area retreated between 15.4 and 33.5 m, giving an average retreat rate of 8.4 m yr^− 1. Field measurements showed that total sediment production due to gully erosion during the three years ranged between 257 and 1854 m³ yr^− 1, which is equivalent to 326 to 2355 t yr^− 1, with gully-head retreat accounting for 0 to 21.7% (4.4% in average). The sediment delivery ratio was especially high during the summer rainy season (56% in average). Sediment production by ephemeral gullies and permanent gullies was 1.5 times greater than that from surface erosion. Gully heads retreated faster in the spring freeze–thaw period than in the summer. The stage of gully development could be identified based on short-term changes in the gully erosion rate.     

旅游业区位分析--以云南为例

通过对云南省旅游地分布和旅游业发展状况的分析,提出新的适合于解释旅游业的区位理论,其关键是区位的旅游轩边际效用分析模型。研究发现旅游地分布存在一种类似杜能环的旅游业区位结构,以旅游集散地为中心,由内向外,依次为“历史古迹带”、“奇异风景带”、“旅游业滞带”和“自然风光与民族风情带”的四条环带状分布。这种结构是廖什理论不能解释的,需要应用边际效用模型。     

Automatic mapping of lunar landforms using DEM-derived geomorphometric parameters

Developing approaches to automate the analysis of the massive amounts of data sent back from the Moon will generate significant benefits for the field of lunar geomorphology. In this paper, we outline an automated method for mapping lunar landforms that is based on digital terrain analysis. An iterative self-organizing (ISO) cluster unsupervised classification enables the automatic mapping of landforms via a series of input raster bands that utilize six geomorphometric parameters. These parameters divide landforms into a number of spatially extended, topographically homogeneous segments that exhibit similar terrain attributes and neighborhood properties. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we apply it to three representative test sites on the Moon, automatically presenting our results as a thematic landform map. We also quantitatively evaluated this approach using a series of confusion matrices, achieving overall accuracies as high as 83.34% and Kappa coefficients (K) as high as 0.77. An immediate version of our algorithm can also be applied for automatically mapping large-scale lunar landforms and for the quantitative comparison of lunar surface morphologies.     

MODIS 1B影像几何纠正方法研究及软件实现

MODIS影像是一种新型和重要的数据。对MODIS 1B影像几何畸变原因进行了深入分析，选择了一种合适的纠正方法。对于1km分辨率MODIS 1B影像，直接采用1km分辨率的空间坐标进行几何纠正；对于250m和500m分辨率的MODIS 1B影像，先用三次样条曲线对坐标进行插值生成同分辨率的坐标，然后利用坐标插值结果对其进行几何纠正。由于MODIS影像在空问分布上的特殊性，采用前向和后向映射相结合的方式确定纠正后某一像素点在原始影像中的位置。根据该位置的条带重叠度，可以确定参与计算像素个数、搜索窗口的大小以及窗口的精确位置；采用归一化反距离加权插值法计算纠正后像素点的属性值。上述优化算法不仅保证了纠正后影像的质量，而且提高了数据处理速度。作者在Visual C 6．0环境下开发实现了上述算法。从坐标插值和几何纠正结果分析，无论是数据处理速度还是纠正后的影像质量和精度均达到要求。