Modelling phosphorus transport in a surface irrigation drain

Understanding phosphorus (P) transport from agricultural land is essential to the development of effective management strategies that reduce the impact of agriculture on inland water quality. This paper describes the development and application of a process based model describing P transfer down a farm scale irrigation drain.     

Fracture in Westerly Granite under AE Feedback and Constant Strain Rate Loading: Nucleation, Quasi-static Propagation, and the Transition to Unstable Fracture Propagation

New observations of fracture nucleation are presented from three triaxial compression experiments on intact samples of Westerly granite, using Acoustic Emission (AE) monitoring. By conducting the tests under different loading conditions, the fracture process is demonstrated for quasi-static fracture (under AE Feedback load), a slowly developing unstable fracture (loaded at a `slow' constant strain rate of 2.5 × 10<sup>−6</sup> /s) and an unstable fracture that develops near instantaneously (loaded at a `fast' constant strain rate of 5 × 10⁻⁵ /s). By recording a continuous ultrasonic waveform during the critical period of fracture, the entire AE catalogue can be captured and the exact time of fracture defined. Under constant strain loading, three stages are observed: (1) An initial nucleation or stable growth phase at a rate of ~ 1.3 mm/s, (2) a sudden increase to a constant or slowly accelerating propagation speed of ~ 18 mm/s, and (3) unstable, accelerating propagation. In the ~ 100 ms before rupture, the high level of AE activity (as seen on the continuous record) prevented the location of discrete AE events. A lower bound estimate of the average propagation velocity (using the time-to-rupture and the existing fracture length) suggests values of a few m/s. However from a low gain acoustic record, we infer that in the final few ms, the fracture propagation speed increased to 175 m/s. These results demonstrate similarities between fracture nucleation in intact rock and the nucleation of dynamic instabilities in stick slip experiments. It is suggested that the ability to constrain the size of an evolving fracture provides a crucial tool in further understanding the controls on fracture nucleation.     

Site Response in Las Vegas Valley, Nevada from NTS Explosions and Earthquake Data

We report site response in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) from historical recordings of Nevada Test Site (NTS) nuclear explosions and earthquake recordings from permanent and temporary seismic stations. Our data set significantly improves the spatial coverage of LVV over previous studies, especially in the northern, deeper parts of the basin. Site response at stations in LVV was measured for frequencies in the range 0.2–5.0 Hz using Standard Spectral Ratios (SSR) and Horizontal-Vertical Spectral Ratios (HVR). For the SSR measurements we used a reference site (approximately NEHRP B ``rock' classification) located on Frenchman Mountain outside the basin. Site response at sedimentary sites is variable in LVV with average amplifications approaching a factor of 10 at some frequencies. We observed peaks in the site response curves at frequencies clustered near 0.6, 1.2 and 2.0 Hz, with some sites showing additional lower amplitude peaks at higher frequencies. The spatial pattern of site response is strongly correlated with the reported depth to basement for frequencies between 0.2 and 3.0 Hz, although the frequency of peak amplification does not show a similar correlation. For a few sites where we have geotechnical shear velocities, the amplification shows a correlation with the average upper 30-meter shear velocities, V₃₀. We performed two-dimensional finite difference simulations and reproduced the observed peak site amplifications at 0.6 and 1.2 Hz with a low velocity near-surface layer with shear velocities 600–750 m/s and a thickness of 100–200 m. These modeling results indicate that the amplitude and frequencies of site response peaks in LVV are strongly controlled by shallow velocity structure.     

R&D Subsidies and Climate Policy: Is There a “Free Lunch”?

Because of the long-term nature of the climate problem, technological advances are often seen as an important component of any solution. However, when considering the potential for technology to help solve the climate problem, two market failures exist which lead to underinvestment in climate-friendly R&D: environmental externalities and the public goods nature of new knowledge. As a result, government subsidies to climate-friendly R&D projects are often proposed as part of a policy solution. Using the ENTICE model, I analyze the effectiveness of such subsidies, both with and without other climate policies, such as a carbon tax. While R&D subsidies do lead to significant increases in climate-friendly R&D, this R&D has little impact on the climate itself. Subsidies address the problem of knowledge as a public good, but they do not address the environmental externality, and thus offer no additional incentive to adopt new technologies. Moreover, high opportunity costs to R&D limit the potential role that subsidies can play. While R&D subsidies can improve efficiency, policies that directly affect the environmental externality have a much larger impact on both atmospheric temperature and economic welfare.     

A Demonstration of the Uncertainty in Projections of UK Climate Change Resulting from Regional Model Formulation

Regional climate models (RCMs) are now commonly used to downscale climate change projections provided by global coupled models to resolutions that can be utilised at national and finer scales. Although this extra tier of complexity adds significant value, it inevitably contributes a further source of uncertainty, due to the regional modelling uncertainties involved. Here, an initial attempt is made to estimate the uncertainty that arises from typical variations in RCM formulation, focussing on changes in UK surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation projected for the late twenty-first century. Data are provided by a relatively large suite of RCM and global model integrations with widely varying formulations. It is found that uncertainty in the formulation of the RCM has a relatively small, but non-negligible, impact on the range of possible outcomes of future UK seasonal mean climate. This uncertainty is largest in the summer season. It is also similar in magnitude to that of large-scale internal variations of the coupled climate system, and for SAT, it is less than the uncertainty due to the emissions scenario, whereas for precipitation it is probably larger. The largest source of uncertainty, for both variables and in all seasons, is the formulation of the global coupled model. The scale-dependency of uncertainty due to RCM formulation is also explored by considering its impact on projections of the difference in climate change between the north and south of the UK. Finally, the implications for the reliability of UK seasonal mean climate change projections are discussed.     

The Reconstruction of Paleovegetation and Paleoclimate in the Late Pliocene of West Yunnan, China

The Eryuan palynoflora from the Late Pliocene of western Yunnan, China is described in this paper, and is compared with two contemporary palynofloras from Yangyi and Longling. The palynological data of the three locations are analyzed to reconstruct the climatic parameters of these areas at that time by using the Coexistence Approach. The Late Pliocene climatic parameters of Eryuan are estimated, i.e., the mean annual temperature ranged from 13.3 to 18.6^∘C, the mean temperature of the warmest month from 24.6 to 27.5^∘C, the mean temperature of the coldest month from 1.9 to 12.1^∘C, the difference in temperatures of coldest and warmest month from 14.2 to 16.6^∘C, the mean annual precipitation from 619.9 to 1484.3 mm, the mean maximum monthly precipitation from 143.8 to 245.6 mm, and the mean minimum monthly precipitation from 12.7 to 16.4 mm. Both paleovegetation and paleoclimate of the three localities are compared with the modern data at each location. The present study suggests a MAT decrease accompanied by a doubling of the MAP in the Longling area between the Late Pliocene and the present. This seems to be related to the uplift of Gaoligong Mountain in Longling which is now part of the eastern portion (Western Yunnan) of the Tibetan Plateau.     

Snow cover variability across central Canada (1978–2002) derived from satellite passive microwave data

Twenty-four winter seasons (1978–2002) of mean February snow water equivalent (SWE) values were analyzed in an exploration of the spatial pattern of temporal variability in snow cover across the non-mountainous interior of Canada. The SWE data were derived from space-borne passive microwave brightness temperatures processed with a land cover-sensitive suite of algorithms. Spatial patterns in the frequency and amount of variability were investigated on an annual basis through comparisons with average trends over all 24 years. Changes in temporal variability through time were also investigated by comparing three eight year time periods to general trends. Analyses were synthesized at the ecozone scale in order to link results both to potential land cover influences on algorithm performance and climatological variability in SWE. Prairie and northern ecozones were typically found to be the most variable in terms of SWE magnitude. Analyses indicate that non-treed land cover classes are generally more variable than treed classes. The results also indicate that extreme weather events appear to be occurring with increasing consistency in the Prairie and Arctic regions. Discerning climatologically significant variability in the time series, compared to algorithm-related issues can be a challenge, but in an era of eroding surface observing networks the passive microwave time series represents an important resource for monitoring and detecting trends and variability in terrestrial snow cover.