The bias of integrated assessment models that ignore climate catastrophes

Climate scientists currently predict there is a small but real possibility that climate change will lead to civilization threatening catastrophic events. Martin Weitzman has used this evidence along with his controversial “Dismal Theorem” to argue that integrated assessment models of climate change cannot be used to determine an optimal price for carbon dioxide. In this paper, I provide additional support for Weitzman’s conclusions by running numerical simulations to estimate risk premiums toward climate catastrophes. Compared to the assumptions found in most integrated assessment models, I incorporate into the model a more realistic range of uncertainty for both climate catastrophes and societal risk aversion. The resulting range of risk premiums indicates that the conclusions drawn from integrated assessment models that do not incorporate the potential for climate catastrophes are too imprecise to support any particular policy recommendation. The analysis of this paper is more straightforward and less technical than Weitzman’s, and therefore the conclusions should be accessible to a wider audience.     

Sizing up the sub-Tommotian unconformity in Siberia

Sedimentary rocks in the western Anabar region, northwestern Siberia, preserve an exceptional record of evolution and biogeochemical events near the Proterozoic-Cambrian boundary. Carbon isotopic data on petrographically and geochemically screened samples collected at 1 to 2 m intervals support correlation of the lower Anabar succession (Staraya Reckha and lower Manykai Formations) with sub-Tommotian carbonates of the Ust'-Yu-doma Formation in southeastern Siberia. In contrast, the upper Manykai and most of the overlying Medvezhya Formation appear to preserve a sedimentary and paleontological record of an evolutionary important time interval represented in southeastern Siberia only by the sub-Tommotian unconformity. Correlation of the Anabar section with other northern Siberian successions that contain well-dated volcanic rocks permits the estimate that the sub-Tommotian unconformity in southeastern Siberia spans approximately 3 to 6 m.y. Diverse small shelly fossils (but not archaeocyathans) previously thought to mark the base of the Tommotian Stage evolved sequentially throughout this earlier interval.     

Fluvial suspended sediment yields over hours to millennia in the High Arctic at proglacial Lake Linnévatnet,Svalbard

Sediment yield can be a sensitive indicator of catchment dynamics and environmental change. For a glacierized catchment in the High Arctic, we compiled and analyzed diverse sediment transfer data, spanning a wide range of temporal scales, to quantify catchment yields and explore landscape response to past and ongoing hydroclimatic variability. The dataset integrates rates of lake sedimentation from correlated varve records and repeated annual and seasonal sediment traps, augmented by multi‐year lake and fluvial monitoring. Consistent spatial patterns of deposition enabled reconstruction of catchment yields from varve‐ and trap‐based fluxes. We used hydroclimatic data and multivariate modeling to examine annual controls of sediment delivery over almost a century, and to examine shorter‐term controls of sediment transfer during peak glacier melt. Particle‐size analyses, especially for annual sediment traps, were used to further infer sediment transfer mechanisms and timing. Through the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, there were no apparent multi‐century trends in lake sedimentation rates, which were over three times greater than those during the mid‐Holocene when glaciers were diminished. Twentieth‐century sedimentation rates were greater than those of previous millennia, with a mid‐century step increase in mean yield from 240 to 425 Mg km^?2 yr^?1. Annual yields through the twentieth century showed significant positive relations with spring/summer temperature, rainfall, and peak discharge conditions. This finding is significant for the future of sediment transfer at Linnévatnet, and perhaps more broadly in the Arctic, where continued increases in temperature and rainfall are projected. For 2004–2010, annual yields ranged from 294 to 1330 Mg km^?2 yr^?1. Sediment trap volumes and particle‐size variations indicate that recent annual yields were largely dominated by spring to early summer transfer of relatively coarse‐grained sediment. Fluvial monitoring showed daily to hourly sediment transfer to be related to current and prior discharge, diurnal hysteresis, air temperature, and precipitation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Results of recent COCORP profiling in the southeastern United States

Summary. Recently acquired COCORP profiles in the southeastern United States show that: 1) Reflections associated with the Appalachian detachment are prominent beneath the Inner Piedmont of western Georgia, but do not extend further southeast beneath the Pine Mountain belt. 2) The Brunswick magnetic low is associated with a broad zone of crustal-penetrating dipping reflections that probably marks the Alleghanian suture in the southeastern U.S. 3) The South Georgia basin is a composite feature consisting of several half-graben, locally containing >5 km of Triassic - E. Jurassic basin fill. These basins occur within the interior of the Alleghanian orogen, but are not specifically associated with Alleghanian suture. 4) Across-strike crustal thickness variation, and distribution and character of lower-crust and Moho reflections in the Southern Appalachians is grossly similar to that observed in other parts of the Appalachian/Hercynian orogenic belt. Global comparisons suggest that these regional variations are a consequence of post-collisional extensional tectonics, rather than a primary (Palaeozoic or older) feature of the orogenic belt.     

Modelling suspended sediment discharge in a glaciated Arctic catchment–Lake Peters,Northeast Brooks Range,Alaska

Seasonal suspended sediment transfer in glaciated catchments is responsive to meteorological, geomorphological, and glacio-fluvial conditions, and thus is a useful indicator of environmental system dynamics. Knowledge of multifaceted fluvial sediment-transfer processes is limited in the Alaskan Arctic – a region sensitive to contemporary environmental change. For two glaciated sub-catchments at Lake Peters, northeast Brooks Range, Alaska, we conducted a two-year endeavour to monitor the hydrology and meteorology, and used the data to derive multiple-regression models of suspended sediment load. Statistical selection of the best models shows that incorporating meteorological or temporal explanatory variables improves performances of turbidity- and discharge-based sediment models. The resulting modelled specific suspended sediment yields to Lake Peters are: 33 (20–60) t km⁻² yr⁻¹ in 2015, and 79 (50–140) t km⁻² yr⁻¹ in 2016 (95% confidence band estimates). In contrast to previous studies in Arctic Alaska, fluvial suspended sediment transfer to Lake Peters was primarily influenced by rainfall, and secondarily influenced by temperature-driven melt processes associated with clockwise diurnal hysteresis. Despite different sub-catchment glacier coverage, specific yields were the same order of magnitude from the two primary inflows to Lake Peters, which are Carnivore Creek (128 km²; 10% glacier coverage) and Chamberlin Creek (8 km²; 23% glacier coverage). Seasonal to longer-term sediment exhaustion and/or contrasting glacier dynamics may explain the lower than expected relative specific sediment yield from the more heavily glacierized Chamberlin Creek catchment. Absolute suspended sediment yield (t yr⁻¹) from Carnivore Creek to Lake Peters was 27 times greater than from Chamberlin Creek, which we attribute to catchment size and sediment supply differences. Our results provide a foundational understanding of the current sediment transfer regime and are useful for predicting changes in fluvial sediment transport in glaciated Alaskan Arctic catchments.     

Mineral chemistry and chemical zoning in tourmalines, Pampa del Tamboreo, San Luis, Argentina

Tourmalinites that are distally associated with tungsten deposits of the Pampa del Tamboreo area, San Luis, Argentina, contain tourmalines retaining evidence for its origin and evolution. Tourmaline grains uncommonly contain small grains of detrital tourmaline. Analysis of a single detrital tourmaline grain reveals that it is a Ca-rich “oxy-dravite”. Proximal to the detrital cores there are inner domains of asymmetric tourmaline overgrowths that developed during low grade metamorphism. Volumetrically dominant tourmaline overgrowths in the outer domain are concentrically zoned aluminous dravite and “oxy-dravite” with Al/(Al + Fe + Mg) = 0.71–0.74 and Mg/(Mg + Fe) = 0.64–0.71. Variability of Al is primarily controlled by the deprotonation substitution R + OH⁻ = Al + O²⁻ (where R = Fe + Mg), and is a function of the activity of H₂O. A likely evolutionary scenario is one in which volcanogenic material is altered by hydrothermal fluids in the sea floor resulting in an aluminous and magnesian residuum. With further hydrothermal circulation and incipient metamorphism, boron-rich fluids are expelled from metasedimentary and metavolcanic basement rocks and develop Mg-rich tourmalinites in the aluminous, magnesian host rocks. The tourmalinization process occurs over a range of metamorphic conditions and with fluids of variable activity of H₂O.     

Holocene storminess inferred from sediments of two lakes on Adak Island,Alaska

The abundance of sedimentary organic material from two lakes was used to infer past Holocene storminess on Adak Island where frequent storms generate abundant rainfall and extensive cloud cover. Andrew and Heart Lakes are located 10 km apart; their contrasting physical characteristics cause the sedimentary organic matter to respond differently to storms. Their records were synchronized using correlated tephra beds. Sedimentation rates increased between 4.0 and 3.5 ka in both lakes. Over the instrumental period, Andrew Lake biogenic-silica content (BSi) is most strongly correlated with winter sunlight availability, which influences photosynthetic production, and river input, which influences the dilution of BSi by mineral matter. Heart Lake BSi is likely affected by wind-driven remobilization of sediment, as suggested by correlations among BSi, the North Pacific Index, and winter storminess. The results indicate relatively stormy conditions from 9.6 to 4.0 ka, followed by drying between 4.0 and 2.7 ka, with the driest conditions from 2.7 to 1.5 ka. The stormiest period was between AD 500 and 1200, then drying from 1150 to 1500 and more variable until 1850. This record of Holocene storminess fills a major gap at the center of action for North Pacific wintertime climate.     

Results from the Huygens probe on Titan

The Cassini–Huygens mission, comprising the NASA Saturn Orbiter and the ESA Huygens Probe, arrived at Saturn in late June 2004. The Huygens probe descended under parachute in Titan’s atmosphere on 14 January 2005, 3 weeks after separation from the Orbiter. We discuss here the breakthroughs that the Huygens probe, in conjunction with the Cassini spacecraft, brought to Titan science. We review the achievements ESA’s Huygens probe put forward and the context in which it operated. The findings include new localized information on several aspects of Titan science: the atmospheric structure and chemical composition; the aerosols distribution and content; the surface morphology and composition at the probe’s landing site; the winds, the electrical properties, and the implications on the origin and evolution of the satellite.